Price Speculation


#6198

Everything is possible i would have nothing against a price of 250$+, but i doubt this will happen as long as about 90% of ZEC volume are faked, inflated and just unreal … We need real volume to get higher, faked/inflated volume looks good but doesn’t help at all as it’s just as much as hot air …


#6199

https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-price-rallied-as-apple-flashed-death-cross/


#6200

Keep buying. With a lot of dots


#6201

should I sell my zcash or should I keep it (for a while)?


#6202

#6203

Thoughts with my morning coffee about fake/inflated ZEC volume and it’s impact all over.

Seriously, the whole fake/inflated ZEC volume doesn’t let me rest and i think a lot about it and how does it impact. Somehow normally when you hold ZEC and as well realize that e more than big portion of the volume is non existent but only and just faked.

So here some thoughts about the impact of it:

  • Today i realized that most technical indicators aren’t reliable in ZEC as long as there is such huge amount of fake volume. Volume is an important factor when drawing or confirming technical trading indicators, trends, whatever. Now, thinking more about it, how relible can be a chart that is based on total false information, means the Volume factor?

  • The strength of any movement, no matter if up or down is not reliable with that much fake volume. Having in mind that the fake volume is about 75-90%, just in that range somewhere mostly, it’s just huge,

  • Volume is invaluable when confirming chart patterns, such as head and shoulders, , triangles, flags and other patterns. Again, having in mind that the majority of volume is unreal we can’t actually confirm anything. Any ZEC pattern is mostly useless right now if based/confirmed/drawn on the whole volume…

  • Now my first thought was that i will just use the volume from Bittrex, Binance and Bitfinex to confirm and draw patterns, but after a second thought i realized that this won’t help either as long as these fake volumes have some general impact anyway and the Bittrex, Binance, Bitfinex volumes are mostly influenced by the fake volume from other exchanges.

  • My next thought is that exchanges with higher fake volume, wash trading, inflated unreal volume and order books could eventually influence the price of ZEC, not? Right now it seems to me that they are mostly interested in gaining new visitors/traders on their exchanges and mostly they aren’t yet interested in doing more, but i think we should not underestimate the possibility of price manipulation by exactly such exchanges. I mean after they use anyway fake order books how far is it to try using them to manipulate the price? It seems to me it’s just the next step…

  • What can or should Zcash do in the case of fake volume? There are just 2 options in my opinion:

1.) Do nothing.
This might at first view be a good option for Zcash as a high volume on the different market cap sites, review sites makes ZEC looking good and promising. No doubt that on these sites a 24h trade volume of $120M looks better than just real $10-$15M.
But this approach comes with 2 dangers we should not underestimate again: Being part of such (in my opinion absolutly illegal fake inflated volume/wash trading/market manipulation), no matter it’s passive, will give soon or late fuel to exactly these that want crypto absolutly regulated or to vanish. No matter we and Zcash “tolerate” this passively/silently as soon as you are aware of it you are just part of it, easy and simple as that, not?
Here comes the 2nd point that is the most dangerous in my opinion. ZEC losing creditability. Blockchaintransparency is allready working and exposing these exchanges. But what when a major player is interested in ZEC, makes a full audit or analyzing on ZEC and comes to the conclusion that 75%-90% of ZEC volume is just hot air and faked? I’am pretty sure the result would be devastating and not in favour of ZEC…

2.) Do something against it:
The only thing i think Zcash can or could do here (i could be wrong of course) is withdrawing ZEC from these exchanges. This mostly would have a short impact on price and it would be as well a unique approach that for sure would be honored by investors medium and long term. It would ZEC give more value compared to all the other inflated/fake volume coins. We could be the first real volume coin out of all and this compared with good marketing could be priceless in my opinion. It would build a lot of trust, transparency and faith into ZEC.
I could very well imagine it would another positive point when regulators, countries, whoever comment/decide on ZEC in future and underline a honest approach…

Just some own thoughts …


#6204

#6205

Is this technically possible?


#6206

I’am not sure, hence i said i could be wrong here. But i think yes, it should be possible in my opinion:

  • My guess is that listings on exchanges are done with the agreement and/or request of the coin’s team. Not sure if this applies for the top coins, but for sure for most of the other coins.

  • Than there is the option of an official ZEC white and black list published. For example Zcash or the foundation easly could make it public that honest volume exchanges are supported and a warning for the other exchanges in form of a black list or something like that. This should generate enough pressure from a top coin like ZEC to make them delist ZEC pairs.

  • Not sure about this one how much the ZEC dev team is involved in setting up and maintaining the ZEC wallets and ecosystem on exchanges, but i could imagine that stoping support for given exchanges could be a solution as well. Again, not sure about this one, just a wild guess.

All over i’am pretty sure there are ways of getting delisted on given exchanges, enough the people in charge really want it.


#6207

Well Zcash company and foundation can ask to be delisted from those exchanges, but that is about it. They cant ban an exchange from accepting Zcash trades.

But what it can do is ask coinmarketcap and similar websites that do the tracking to exclude those exchanges from their calculations, similar to how korean markets were excluded from Bitcoin price calculations quite some time in 2018.


#6208

Not sure if this is the only option they have to “force” them delisting. But even this would be better than doing nothing and a first step into the right direction in my opinion…


#6209

Exchanges do nothing for cryptos except feed speculators’ greed. While I’m greedy too, exchanges add nothing of real value to the long term goals of ZCash.


#6210

Fake volume is everywhere, not just in crypto.

Example:
Everyday some inflated amount of paper silver is traded on the COMEX:

Since we don’t have 2018 data on silver mining, we can see that demand for silver overshadows supply. So in 2017, 151 million oz of silver was actually available for coins & bars (investment grade silver) yet 2x that is being traded any given day on the COMEX.

The equity market is a total joke as well.


#6211

#6212

@Trololino marketing update from Josh : https://z.cash/blog/2018-zcash-marketing-year-in-review/

@boxalex it also mentions that paying “listing fees” for exchanges is against company policy so that seems to answer your question:

All of this adoption was organic (it is our policy to not pay any listing fees);


#6213

Perfect, finally some action against all that fake volume, hopefully more to come soon.

For everybody lazy to read the whole article, interesting part:

The executives are alleged to have made fraudulent transactions between September to December of last year, using a fake corporate account to make bogus orders worth 254 trillion won (or $226.2 billion) to inflate trading volume figures and attract more customers to the exchange.


#6214

I’am not sure if this is a correct calculation based on supply/demnd to conclude the volume. I’am not familar in any way with the silver market, so my personal conclusion is just based on common sense and logic:

Could it be the case that somone buys silver and immediatly resells them with a smalll margins, many day traders that buy/sell the whole day, or just options that get sold/bought forth an back.

I mean with your calculation, as i understand it ( i could be terrible wrong of course!), your point is that more is sold/bought on a given day than their is supply. But this alone is not an indicator in my opinion as, like with cryptos, someone can sell what he bought some minutes later and do this the whole day without wash trading. Not that i exclude it at all, but i see there is potential it’s legit, maybe.

However, even IF there is inflated trading with silver or other equities, it’s one thing if you have silver 2x inflated/faked, another thing 10+x like we have it. Not that 2x “only” is much better, but it’s a difference.

And finally, just because we see something illegal or not correct should not mean we should accept it as something given. Following that logic than there is no need for crypto at all if don’t try to improve it all over versus the current established currencies, equities, securities, whatever… if the result is worse than what we have allready. Just my 2 zec-oshis


#6215

Was this all and forever the policy or added/modified at some point? Means does it mean that never any fee was paid to any exchange in the past?


#6216

My point is simple. Rehypothecation happens in almost all markets.


#6217

Means in your opinion Rehypothecation = fake volume/inflated volume, just the same or how to understand this comment/conclusion?