Withdrawn posting number 9

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Danish or Dutch (or one of those countries) police claiming they have found a way to trace bitcoin transactions back to users?

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Maybe has to do with recent news of Zcash Tokens? Essentially Zcash security with Ethereum functions.
Also Zec had been trading sideways the last few days, figured something like this would happen soon. My guess is it's BTC money having doubts about their ETF, maybe looking for temporary shelter in case ETF doesn't pass and BTC price comes crashing down?

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I need to sell a bit of BTC to cover some medical expenses, but otherwise I'm gonna hodl and cross my fingers on the ETF.....and of course I'm wishing I hadn't liquidated some ZEC donations I got recently when it had dipped below US$30 :sob:

There is perfect rationale if you look at the bigger picture.

It wasn't much of a stretch to see that when ETH moved higher ZEC would follow.

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I think the fact that the Danish police have been able to convict someone based on tracing Bitcoin transactions is a contributor to the price increase.

People have assumed up to now that Bitcoin isn't traceable and is completely anonymous which is incorrect. Z addresses in Zcash provide 100% privacy and the security that many people want. Plus I guess that since Zcash is very similar to Bitcoin, people can relate one to the other. Relating Bitcoin/Zcash to ETH isn't possibly in the same way.

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Zcash is high undervalued 1ZEC should be at least 300$

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I’m not comfortable attributing this rise to the Danish police story. The story broke on February 21st when the Poloniex rate was 0.0277 ZEC/BTC. From here, the rate fell and didn’t return to this level for more than six days.

Looking over three months this feels more like a natural correction to a one-month downward trend. The recent volatility does not seem excessive on this scale and, I suspect, not unusual among young cryptocurrencies.



You're missing the bigger picture. ZEC was valued much higher then, and mining profitability had not yet reached equilibrium. People like myself mined ZEC and sold for ETH, creating a huge selling pressure. Once ETH profitability overtook ZEC profitability, that selling pressure was removed. However, ETH was also moving lower during that period.

On October 28, 2016, the day ZEC launched, ETH was trading at $11.52 USD. It quickly moved lower and entered a 3 month period of consolidation. ETH didn't have a sustained move higher until February 14, 2017 when it closed the day above $12 USD. On February 27, 2017, ETH broke it's September high and moved above $15 USD. On the same day, ZEC moved above $34 USD and completed it's bottom formation. Coincidence? Not a chance.

people that bought in the $40-60 range averaging down their cost. also, BTC-ZEC XCAT's a very big deal.

another reason for ZEC's gain: zcash is grossly undervalued (imo). believe just about everybody here thinks ZEC will eventually hit +$100. imagine we'll be trading in the $40-60 (currently zcash is worth roughly $50 imo) range for a minute, but $100's right around the corner. traders know this is correct analysis ; )

"If the SEC approves the ETF of the Winklevoss twins" What does that mean?

agree! $100's my short/mid term target. $1000 - down-the-road's not hard to imagine!!!

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...amazon was one of the original funders of the zcash protocol, true story!

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In addition to BTC rising so ZEC also rising this might be the reason why it is climbing:

The thieves of BitFinex are laundering the stolen BTC by slowly exchanging them to ZEC at "any" price. Around 120,000 BTC were stolen so do your math. ZEC could skyrocket!

Anyway, ZEC really needs wide usage in goods markets/marketplaces, shops.

Maybe the ransomware creators will start using it - because of complete anonymity (unlike currently used BTCs). Then ZEC price should skyrocket. I think I am bullish.

I sincerely hope that ZEC will be much more widely be used by as wider public as possible. Or ZCash's technology adopted by other crypto currencies.
This would good for all humanity.

However it is very tempting for ill-intended people to use it too. They have the highest need for anonymity.

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Sometime in the near future I hope to start work on a web payment system for zcash....possibly as a plugin for things like shopify. Depends on how much time I and my main collaborator on web things have in the next month or two.

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There are a lot more good people on the earth than criminals, and the value of good commerce is immensely greater than criminal commerce. The criminal market is just a crappy market for a startup. Small revenues compared to legit markets, and customer support would be a nightmare. I'll pass!

Here are two example data points:

  1. All the "dark markets" like Alphabay, all around the world, probably saw less than $200M of total transactions in 2016. $200M sounds like a lot, but it is actually not, for a global consumer industry in a world of about 3.5 B internet users.

    Online marketplaces charge about 3% commission, so that means all of the marketplaces put together earned about $7M revenue in 2016. That's barely enough revenue in a year to keep half a dozen startups alive and growing. There are about 22 such marketplaces.

  2. During that same year of 2016, legal marijuana commerce in my home state of Colorado saw about $1B of transactions. For a single state with a population of only about 5 M people, that's a lot of money! Almost all of that money stays in the local community here — all the cultivation, employees, retailers, accountants, etc. are local businesses. Numerous businesses got plenty of revenue to fund new innovation, and the government of the State of Colorado took in $100M worth of taxes.

Legal commerce is much bigger, richer, and more important than illegal commerce. We're focused on getting more and more customers who value business security and personal privacy for their legal businesses. There are plenty of people who feel strongly about this and want security and privacy in their daily transactions!

Also, just so you know, if you post to this forum alluding to the possibility that you might commit crimes, or even just advocating that you think people ought to commit crimes, I'll ask the mods to delete your post and possibly also ban your account. Sorry. That's the way it is. Take it to some other forum if you want to have that conversation.


Those are good points, but I would make some counterpoints:

  1. not to take away from that estimate, but it is almost certainly an underestimate. It can't count vendor shops or direct dealing (often preferred by long-time high volume sellers who have established reputations, to avoid exposure to DNMs and commissions), the highest-value unlisted DNM listings, and all the clearnet sites which sell quasi-legal or illegal-but-not-prosecuted things (modafinil, 'research chemicals', or simply nootropics vendors dropped by credit card processors such as Ceretropic). The commission estimate is also somewhat misleading as at this point, all DNM users are well aware of exit scams and it would be naive to pretend that DNM operators are unaware of them and indeed are not counting them as part of the potential profit; in effect, DNM commissions are not 3%, but 3%+one-time 100% commissions. Given that the float/escrow for a large DNM can easily be $3m+ and DNMs have lifetimes around 1-2y, $7m is low.
  2. the DNMs and other sketchy commerce may be low in absolute amounts, and may indeed be low compared to the current Bitcoin market cap, but this ignores their critical role in bootstrapping cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin benefited massively from Silk Road 1 being a compelling universally-understandable and appealing usecase, backstopping a price that was almost 100% speculative-driven at the time. Sure, DNMs may be <5% of use of Bitcoin in 2017, but that comes long after 2011-2013! I don't know exactly how much but all the formal analysis I've seen suggests that in 2011-2013, SR1 did make up at least a large minority of Bitcoin uses (as suggested by Ross Ulbricht's total commissions of something like 700k BTC). The DNMs provided a reason for people to start acquiring and using Bitcoin (serving as a gateway drug, you might say) and demonstrating that Bitcoin was functional and secure. Zcash right now is more comparable to Bitcoin in 2011 than Bitcoin in 2017. (Does even $200m of actual commerce happen using Zcoin right now? No, of course not.)

So the illicit uses are more common than you give them credit for being, and are particularly important at this stage of a cryptocurrency's lifecycle.

Saying why something like a stock goes up without predicting and profiting from the move as soon as the news comes out is like being told something you did not know and saying "I knew that". Anyone can give you a perfect horoscope for what happened to you yesterday, giving "causes" from the planets and stars. But sometimes meteors where the cause can be seen.