I meant to a greater extent, of course, the impossibility of repeating the hashrate bitcoin’s model, but I did not mean the price model.
Without any romanticization, I am absolutely convinced that Zcash will be a huge success. And it is very well calculated. There is a lot to say here, but I will touch on a few theses.
In terms of price, we still have a model and factors exactly the same as bitcoin. Conditions are supply and demand. We know for sure that the supply will decrease in accordance with the emission schedule*. The halving of emissions occurs once every 4 years - it’s not too fast, but not too slow either. This is quite enough to update the technology stack, to increase the community, for regulatory and economic adaptation to the new cycle of price growth. When these events occur in a new milestone and the market becomes more resilient, halving occurs. The lack of supply pushes the price up and the price increase attracts (like first-class advertising) new users to the community. Most of them will never declare their interest (these are readers). Some part of the enthusiasts will declare themselves (these are writers like you and me). A small part will become active developers (small due to their specialization). Thus, the community will expand by increasing the demand for the coin. And everything will repeat the same way as with bitcoin. To what extent this will be a significant increase, I will not speculate, this is fortune-telling, but there is something that we can predict.
There are some metrics that allow me to say that Zcash has strong financial support among supporters, despite the fact that it is inaudible. Much more powerful than, for example, Monroe or Dash, despite the fact that it seems that everything is the opposite.
Pay attention to the last column. This is an issue in dollar terms. This means the product of the number of coins issued per day by the current price. Compare it with other popular coins. I think this is an indicator of net demand (excluding trading volumes). This is how much money per day people are willing to spend collectively to support various coins. You may object that we do not know how many coins have not been sold. But unsold coins are also a demand - only from the seller (miner in our case). That is, sellers are not ready to sell at the current price, which means they believe that the current price is lower than the one they would like to receive. In this sense, a miner is no different from the holder who decides to sell him coins at current prices to return part of the investment or continue to hold.
Then why do we hear only “monero monero” in all social networks and it seems to us that it is much more than Zcash. I will assume that the financial capabilities of Zcash investors are much greater, but they is no desire to talk about it out loud at all. As a rule, people who have a lot of money do not behave like those who bought ten coins and constantly demand something from the price chart. Rich people do not make their lives dependent on the price of one asset. They just make a decision about investments and wait for the return as long as it takes. For them, this is not a lottery ticket, they know that life is long, and a good investment is a long process. They don’t need to write about it in social networks, all this noise is not important to them. Most of the visitors to my YouTube channel about Zcash are people over 35 years old.
(This is for example statistics for the last 7 days. (it looks like this representative authority decided to check my content )
Why do I claim that the average portrait of an investor in zcash is a more financially literate person? Simply because it has turned more into a confrontation between cryptanarchy VS cryptoregulation. And it is quite obvious who has any success in regulation direction and it is quite obvious the division into use in the darknet versus use in flexa. A rich investor will never bet on anarchy.
- Let’s assume that for some reason, due to the argumentation of the long-term safety of the chain, the emission will become infinite.
I had a conversation with a friend. He told me, “This is unbelievable! it destroys a lot of what I thought was the value of Zcash.” Yes, the very fact of the change looks extremely sad. And it will be just a killer factor for many. However, as @nathan-at-least correctly noted in his article, all your preferences are a set of compromises. And the point of view from which we look at this set of compromises may also matter. For example, I was prepared and gave a friend the following argument: what if, with an infinite issue, the total issue of coins at the moment in 40 years will be less than with the current issue schedule with a limit of 21 million? The friend thought about it, and after he said that it would suit him, but it’s still a substitution of concepts and where is the guarantee that everything will not change again for some reason.
Yes, this is something that concerns me to the same extent. So I still hope that we won’t have to give up the limit.