4X the hash rate on next gen GPU? Naw man, I wish. 1070 GTX gets 460-480…1080ti GTX get 860ish? Not quite double, to maybe double the hash rate for 2-2.5X the price depending on where you buy and if you can get a deal. Average rig right now of 7 1070’s is probably going to cost somewhere between 3800-4500 USD and use ~850-900w power depending on your ability to get them for a decent price. That will feasibly generate ~3300Sols/s Or you can buy two or three mini’s which would put out (lets’s say 3 minis) 30000+/Sols/s and 900w power for $4560. That is a heck or a delta, your not going to see anything even remotely close to that in a GPU world. Now…Z9 “big” as I called it or just the Z9…3-4X faster than the mini. I would assume since this is the “normal” one it’s going to actually use 1350w, but generate up to 40k Sols/s.
What’s the big deal someone asked? Ok. Say you bought Mini even at batch 2 price. We won’t count the power supply cost or shipping. $1520 X 4 = $6080. I think root estimated Z9 “normal” would probably be 3-4000 USD. I personally think closer to 3K to be honest. Assume 3K, you could buy two Z9 for 6K and have 80K Sol/s. If you into the mini, you have to already be planning to get the Z9 when it drops, or you will lose ground, and you will make less. That’s the problem, that the big deal. You don’t get earth shattering changes like that in GPU, only possible with an ASIC. Now your locked in, now you either have to work hard to ROI and try to get out or you enter the hashrate arms race trying to maintain your current earnings. Bitmain has already made it known they have something 3-4X better than what people are “just” getting now. I feel bad for folks already in the batch 2 pre-order. They were already going to be hard pressed to ROI in a decent amount of time…this will make it even harder.
Update:
So I have to assume someone from Bitmain is watching these threads. I saw a post over in /r/zec that the price of the Z9 dropped to $870, batch one folks are getting 2 X $250 coupons (since they already shipped), but batch two confirmed orders @ $1520 will get two Z9 Mini’s and a $100 coupon? Assuming that’s legit and not someone trolling over there (hey…it does happen), even I have to tip my hat to Bitmain for trying to “make it right”.
we, the dev team behind Zclassic Community Edition (the continuing ZCL team, independent of BTCP team), have decided to follow the Zcash Foundation’s long term strategy
however, to counter Bitmain monopoly, centralization and risk of 51% attacks, we are considering a short term algo adjustment which will be up for community consensus to adopt as soon as they deem fit…
You didn’t get the idea of what i tried to say, i haven’t in mind that there is a gpu coming out with 4x the hashrate of the 1080ti now.
I compared this (not in hahrate, just in relation 1gpu vs 4 gpu rig, 1x Z9mini vs 1z Z9maxi:
1 gpu is the same as 1 Z9 mini
4 gpu rig is the same as 1 Z9maxi
Just because root made a guess you can’t take that humber for a valid calculation. I estimate it at USD 8000 - 9000, now make again a calculation.
While you write about a lot of problems in your calculations, the only problem is that the calculation is not valid until we have a price for a maxi, easy as that, hence so far no problems. You can of course compare with a 40k sol unit we have a price for, $15,200.00.
So much concern about asic buyers ROI, lol. I wonder if everybody gave out the same tips/advices some months ago when the gpu’s prices have skyrocket…
If 51% are really of a concern you should take a look into this paper here: https://www.crypto51.app/ “PoW 51% Attack Cost”
in case of Zclassic it means:
On a Zclassic network hashrate of ~26 MH/s an attacker has to invest only $3,699 per hour for a 51% attack on the ZCL network. Only at nicehash the attacker could get 250% of the needed hashrate for such attack.
Z9 mini pre orders and Z9 maxi anouncement just a month later shows 2 things:
The attitude towards customer base (miners). It’s basically a middle finger. Don’t blame the cultural differences, they know exactly what they are doing.
Uncertainty about the future from the side of Bitmain.
Other than that, everyone with a crop of a healthy brain could predict that on the day Z9 mini was announced.
Lol, first everybody was claiming that an Asic can’t be used at home due it’s noise/heat whatever, now you got such unit and it’s again not right.
I just see it as the smaller hobby miners at home like 1, 2 or 3 gpus in their PC (Z9 mini) and the more involved miners with mining rigs (Z9maxi). No drama here guys, as much as you want, it’s not a drama in anyway. But again thx for carrying that much for us Asic buyers
Actually you are wrong with the secret ming in this case. I simply view on the hashrate chart cart will show you that there is no big Asic mining until now. Nothing above 10% over the last weeks … But than again, what are facts when it comes to spreading FUD …
There was a massive spike in early 2018, when hash rate increased by over 100 MH/s in a matter of days. It would seem unlikely for a whole heap of GPU mining farms to suddenly all come online at the exact same time…
it’s more likely for you that 100 MH/s of Asics disapear immediatly after that than???
IF you saw 100 MH/s of Asics they must be still on the algo, as easy as that.
The secret Bitmain pool never had such hashrate and while you easy can follow the movement of Asic network hashrates you can’t on gpu’s…
And just as a side note as i notice that all the time: So everybody and his grandma bought from 7 months ago until today ALL gpu cards worldwide for mining. But associating this with increased hashrate is not an option for you guys. Seems everybody bought 10 gpus and have them still unpacked under the christmas tree…
Of course there has been crazy demand for GPU’s, but there is a limited supply of new GPU’s into the market and this just doesn’t add up to the increase in network hash rate over the past several months. Passive increase in difficulty due to new GPU’s entering the market consistently doesn’t track with a spike in hash rate of over 100 MH/s over a few days. 100MH/s is ~140,000 GTX 1080Ti’s, where did they all come from?
Limited supply, limited by how much money you have. Distributors frequently sold 1000s of GPU to large farms first. How many people were calling Asus directly or planning trips to shenzen to get them before they shipped to customers. Ask CDW, when I called them in January they said that had hundreds of orders of 100GPU+ orders.
Whatever fits up for you or me, or someone else. We see the hashrate distribution on the hashrate charts.
The biggest unknown pool so far we think it’s Bitmains, just had ~<10% with about 25 MH/s the last weeks.
Just today i noticed another, at least for me unknown pool, that comes up with 85 MH/s (wrote about it in the 51% flypool thread).
There is 0 evidience, 0 proof, even 0 hint that Asics with 100 Mh/s have been on the network for months. With 10, 20 or up to 30 MH/s i wouldn’t even argue, but 100?
Of course i could miss something, but following the network hashrate distribution closely over the last months there is nothing that backs up your claims.
So you think an extra 100 MH/s out of nowhere over a few days is just normal? Just a casual 140,000 GTX 1080Ti’s popped up out of nowhere? Totally normally right?
i didn’t say they came online, but mostly switched … nicehash comes immediatly in my mind for a big part of it…
There is just no Asic Pool around until today that shows such a hashrate you claim. And every time you see a spike at least you should ask your self where have they gone… Everybody is free to have it’s own vision, view, opinion, but don’t sell it as a fact when there is nothing to backup it even…
We both guessed at what the “Maxi” would cost, but I doubt they would even consider $8k, that doesn’t make any business sense at all. As far as giving similar advise to GPU folks when card prices were ridiculously high? Um yeah, people were saying (me included) don’t pay prices like that, look for the deals, the prices will come down, there was no sense in paying double original retail price.
This is what came to mind for me too. I’m sure a large amount of GPU hashpower mines the most profitable coin so it does actually make more intuitive sense to me it’s caused by switching. That’s not to say ASIC mining wasn’t happening then but this is a better explanation of a sudden increase. It should of course be verifiable by looking at hashrates of other GPU mineable coins at that time.
It could be Nicehash or cloud mining…if it spikes and drops off after a day or so…if it stays up there…then the suggestion of ASIC becomes more credible…especially if profitability tapers off. But unless that clearly happens, you can’t really make the claim it’s ASIC coming online already…especially since Bitmain only shipped 77 so far to date (if their reported numbers are accurate).
Seems everybody bought 10 gpus and have them still unpacked under the christmas tree…