no… you can not.
but you will tell about mystical security that are seriously improved, about my personality, about that there is no such thing that asic resistance…
i’ve heard it all.
but now, after one year, it’s obvious what impact asics have on zcash.
and you can not hide from this truth.
going pro-asic was a huge mistake. period.
I give up. 20 characters.
Now you see what I have seen.
Actually that’s what i thought 1 year ago as well. It seems to turned out to be wrong.
Evididence:
About higher difficulty and higher prices. I posted 2 days ago in the “To the moon thread” my obersvation backuped by graphs that there is a pattern that when difficulty raises the price falls for some reason. This pattern is very visible on the last 2 spikes and we will see at the next spike if the pattern holds true. There is a good chance it will for whatever reason.
Let’s be fair and objective, there is no doubt that the active adresses from gpu mining and today has lowered exactly from 120k to about 15k active adresses per day, if not something else it’s an indicator that we lost a big part of our community. I agree that i wasn’t able to find a direct pattern that less active adresses are directly related with less price, but if you loss community it’s a loss anyway.
There are other ways and methods than GPU’s. CPU would be one, another consensus or hybrid would be another choice.
Or higher hashrate hardware as an alternative of course. As i said above allready, there seems to be some correlation for some reason but reverse from what you explain. Higher difficulty seems to lead since about 1 year to lower prices. Don’t ask me why, i just observed such pattern, black on white.
Currently BTC is leading and bullish, but … (want to spare everybody my bearish thoughts here)
I tend to agree with this one. After we loss nearly daily versus BTC there are some reasons. Inflation rate, directly exchange versus BTC and of course no real good news. It indeed looks that there is not enough Zcash demand and this seem to be fuelled by dumping the mining rewards. No proof here, but it makes at very least some sense.
To play devils advocate here and jump a bit on nec’s side. Evidence? IF it was that easy all these multi-billion investors must be dumb, stupid, blind, whatever not to follow your argumentation. To be fair, honest and straight. Zcash cryptographic tech is top, but is this enough to make a claim that a not finished project with expiring funding has massive undervalued value? We can’t put evidence on this one, all we can use are pure straight numbers and digits.
I absolutly and totally disagree with this one. The only reason these asics are still sold en masses is that due geographical centralization due electricity prices given regions have a huge advantage and can take a way more bearish price while continue mining than most other regions.
The lower the price, the lower the electricity cost in some regions, especially china, the more western miners get forced out making again room for the low electricity miner/mining facilities. That’s the most logical explaination without much guessing based on numbers.
That’s not true, again, in one of my charts from 2 days ago it’s clear that the active adresses count from January 2018 until June 2019 (asic introduction/shipping) didn’t fluctate much, no matter there was a huge price decrease. This statement is wrong, backed up by numbers and a clear chart.
To be fair it seems the monero team has by now a pretty good asic spotting approach and they will spot them really soon. I’am not a Monero fan, but they do at all cost what they announced they will do. And at the end of the day it seems it pays out for them. They are leading more than US$ 8 versus ZEC. Even if you don’t like them someone has to admire what and how constant they are doing.
Everybody by now should have been aware that there are private ASICS which are not sold to the public. First example i saw was over one year ago a modified X3 than back for Monero when it was still on the usual cryptonite. These asics have been even hosted by either innosilicon or Bitmain, can’t remember which of both made them.
While this seems as a disadvantage for monero i would argue that it’s an advantage. First of all they closely observe the network and indeed spot them pretty fast. Next time they will spot them even faster with the new methods they use today.
On the other side, we would never notice if there are private asics en mass on the network as it would look like “as usual” and there would be NO way to recognize these.
As said, i’am not sure if these private miners are a disadvantage for Monero as they can prepare pretty quick as of today for such situations and they will get the masters of forking. Pretty sure they allready hae a plan ready for next time…just in case.
I will try to dig out the info and/or make again a new calculation.
The easiest way to observe it yourself is checking the profitability with the known hardware. Entering the hashrate and electricity price into a given calculator (whattomine) for example directly shows you what minimum electricity cost is needed to have a positive reward result. The difficulty is allready calculated there so easy task.
After you have the minimum needed electricity price to get a positive result you can make a very good exclusion list based on countries electricity prices on which to exclude or reverse, which to include.
Second way is just to overview the mining pools. If the chinese ones, like in Zcash case, controll the majority of the hashrate, than it’s a good indicator that the majority of the hashrate comes from there as well. It’s interesting to see that coins that are not dominated by chinese miners have as well the top mining pools in the USA, UK, Germany, Fance, Canada, wherever.
These 2 approaches are not 100% correct but just pretty good indicators.
And of course the total % of the chinese mining pools. Last time i checked i think they had around 90%, or 87 or something like that. This alone should be a concern in my opinion.
My personal opinion on asics as of today is that we all lost:
gpu miners lost one of the most profitable territories
ZEC lost a bigger community and i even tend to believe it’s one thing that reflects today in price (guess!)
Asic miners (expect these from former soviet republics and china) lost most of their investment or only a few ROI’ed.
Just my opinion of course that it was a mistake not to take action immediatly after sapling latest. However, done is done. Reality is that asics are here now, a consensus or algo change isn’t on the road map the next 2 years so … good luck with the asics the next 2+ years.
One has to admire just how much you put into your reply’s/posts. I actually read the whole thing… Im just hoping for Zcash to break out soon i still feel the coin is very undervalued.
Zcash mining will change
You’d know that if you paid more attention
Interesting parts:
…more widely used AntMiner S9, each with a hash rate of 14 tera hashes per second (TH/s), Bitmain may have ceased using more than 130,000 machines to mine for itself.
…
As recently as March, Bitmain was said to be planning to deploy $80 million worth of its own machines this summer.
…
“It is [in the] natural course of the mining business where the hash rate owned by one body at one instant may be owned by someone else at another instant,” the spokesperson said.
==> Sounds to me like they are just replacing older hardware with newer hardware to be more efficient and selling the older hardware to other clients/farms.
Here a very good article on why the majority of mining happens in China and will mostly increase this summer. While the article is about BTC i have zero doubts that it even more applies to ZEC as there is still more profit with less investment to be made.
This reordering does not make an ASIC impossible to build, but it does require that the ASIC adapts to additional input, which is more easily accomplished by a CPU or GPU.
We can define XMR as a real asic-resistant coin.
XMR team proof fork again and again is a good way.After several fork , no bad thing happened to xmr.
And everyone believe XMR team will not hesitate to fork again in order to against asic miner.
In contrast to xmr team , zcash team do nothing , even change a parameter.
The statement made was X16r is ASIC resistant which is factually incorrect.
If you have to fork an algorithm because ASIC’s are mining it, then you have created an alternate version of the original algorithm since the original was compromised (mineable by ASIC machine).
Yes you can keep creating an alternate version every time that someone adapts it.
If you are aware of the history of Zcash, then you are full aware of why Zcash did nothing at the time. To do something now (IMO) would be a knee jerk reaction to fix a problem that isn’t broken.
IMO the marketing department needs a mule kick in the arse.
Lets hope Horizen doesn’t pump above Zcash, or else we might become secondary coin on this algo 
if statement that X16r is ASIC resistant, is factually incorrect, please prove it, show asics for x16r.
GPU itself is an asic.
its not the question that asic can not be created for XMR, RVN or whatever, its about team spotting and fighting ASICs.
zcash went asic friendly, now drowning like a titanic, and you ask for marketing department for input.
no, marketing will not help.
To my knowledge there is not currently an ASIC for X16r.
Even the team that created it have a plan to fork if/when an ASIC is created for it which means they fully expect it to happen.
Since they have been very vocal about the fact of forking, if someone creates an ASIC they are going to keep it to themselves until the more than break even. As you have said a lot in the past few days ROI
Perfect example XMR – who ever created the next ASIC version didn’t sell it they kept it on the DL and mined their butts off. Looking at the hashrate chart I’d say about in 30 days they’ll be back online but at a slower rate
Once any algorithm has enough value to someone will research it and make one.
When either GRV - $0.01 , XMN - $0.002 , RVN - $0.045, STONE - $0.00076, or XCG - $0.0023 or any future coin have any real value then someone will make one. At this time no one in their right mind would waste any time on creating an ASIC for something you can’t even by a single piece of gum if you had one of each coin to use to buy it with.
I’d bet boxalex entire Zcash fortune of 0.03691442 ZEC that if Zcash moved to X16r within 6 months there would be an ASIC - Why because it is financially worth it to make it
Alex I understand you are angry and upset, you’ve been that way about this for a long time, this is very unhealthy for you and I am concerned.
Interesting side note about Raven Coin, it is interesting that they modified their white paper to remove ASIC resistant wording. Any any conversation they have state they have a plan to remain ASIC free. Again even they are saying, by their wording, that X16r though difficult is not 100% ASIC resistant.
There is a HUGE difference between ASIC resistant and attempting to be ASIC Free
ASIC resistance is a blockchain buzzword… Anything that has real value to it WILL have an ASIC produced for it whether it be secret for personal gain or in mass sold to the public.
I dont understand why this is such a difficult concept for people to comprehend.
ASIC can be theoretically created for any algo.
But it’s a gamble investing huge money in hardware that can, and probably will be bricked with another fork. Big gamble keeps people from doing it.
Its easy concept what you can not get.
On the other hand we have ZCASH, which proposed to be asic free, and suddenly, after zooko having conference call with Bitmain CEO decided to go asic friendly, which absolutely destroyed user trust.
For one year now we see selling pressure increased, but you still can’t get your head round this simple fact. And connect it to hardware type used for mining.
Being asic friendly results in profit for producer of asic; centralization; poor hardware accesibility; very little lifespan of hardware etc. etc. etc.
All those obvious problems, which asic resistance supposed to solve in the first place.
But maybe it is too late for zcash, even if zooko decides to go asic free tomorrow.
Poor managment, but highly likely it was planned from the beginning.
You maybe missed the research by XMR bevor the last fork, but they don’t spot the asics by hashrate. They found a totally new approach to spot them which is NOT related to hashrate.
Means even new asics come up they will spot them very very fast, no matter if they are introduced slowly or at once doesn’t matter. These guys have their guard on now with the new approaches and they are very interesting by the way.
Why is it a buzzword? I would agree with asic resistance and not doing everything possible while using the wording asic resistance. But if a given team does everything to stay asic free than asic resistance isn’t just a buzzword.
