@devanshmehta, can we get a postmortem on how the Q3 2026 SEER prediction markets performed?
Back in November 2025, @frankbraun and I discussed futarchy, and I suggested prediction markets could provide a useful signal for ZCG grant decisions.
Then an experiment along those lines happened first with coinholder retroactive grants!
On reflection, that is a better place to start than ZCG, given the regular, binding coinholder votes on a published set of proposals.
Did the prediction markets converge towards the actual results? Did trading improve on the initial AI forecasts?
I analysed the Q3 2026 retro grant vote in my The Hand of God post, including the Connaugh result that was initially misclassified.
Are you planning to run SEER again for Q4? I’d certainly like to see that happen.
P.S. Good to see SEER is MIT licensed. Seems a shame if we don’t build upon this experiment.