Arjun Balaji's "2019 predictions"

Yep, your right, It was all my fault for beliving they wanted ASIC resistance and it was important to them. I did jump to conclusions, so guess boo on me.

You keep referencing ‘the community’ as if there’s blanket support for your position. On the topic of losing trust, how much trust in Zcash do you think there will be when none of the current developers stay on-board because working for free doesn’t appeal to them?

@Lisfin you are conflating two separate topics.

The issue raised by the article at the beginning of this thread is about possibly extending a Developers fund. The ASIC resistance debate is being addressed with Zcash Foundation funding for an alternative POW (that could be merged if it meets the requirements) and another “harmony mining” proposal from Zcash Company. I suggest debating the merits of those proposal’s in thier respective threads.

So how do you feel about a Developers fund after the Founders Reward ends? What would you say is the best way to garner consensus of how Zcash Company should move forward with this important decision?

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That was kinda the idea with ZEF which I think would be worth revisiting come that time

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Its all pretty much here https://z.cash/support/faq/
https://z.cash/blog/consensual-currency
https://z.cash.foundation/blog/hello-world/
nobody’s trying to trick you

People accepted Zcash based on guidelines they laid out. That would be the “community” that uses ZCash, including me. 99% of the people could be in favor of more funding, it does not change the fact they are back tracking on stated guidelines that THEY created at the start.

Im just raising a point, this opens a door later on for more things(even more funding). Why am I the bad guy for questioning them changing mining rewards. I honestly dont mine Zcash anymore, so I dont care that much what they do. I just think its another underhanded move done by Zcash that will make miners lose even more faith.

Am I? My point is, will the funding vote by the “community” (if there is one) be the same sham(as you say it was) as the ANTI-ASIC vote the “community” made. AKA did not effect the decision.

I fell like, you guys made plans and needed 10% of the coins to complete it, wasnt that enough?
I dont know what your plans are after the rewards run out, it might be a good idea for you guys to release some information on what you plan to do, so we are not caught by surprise. If/When funding suddenly stops. This is a important topic for any company, im sure there has already been talks about it.

As a company they should of managed the funds better. If you ask for X amount of money to deliver said product, and than end up needing more half-way through, you must of made poor financial decisions, whether it be not asking for enough at the start, or spending too much of what you had.

Companys would of killed to have investors spend even a couple million investing into new tech 10 years ago. Amazon had to find 22 people to invest 50k each to get a million to start Amazon. With 2.1 million coins, you think Zcash would be off to a great start no?

Have you been in crypto lately? EVERYONE is trying to trick you, 90% of the coins are a scam. Trust is built and earned, not just believing what is in writing.

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everyone in the community (and I mean everyone) encourages scrutinizing everything the Zcash Company and the foundation as well as ourselves, the community, do
Nobody thinks you’re the bad guy for asking questions and nobody’s mad at you for possibly not understanding but the way the questions are presented potentially leaves one to think that you are either insincere or at the very least just rude and like I mentioned on one of the other threads, manners are a thing around here : )

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Btw @daira I apologize if this isn’t appropriate, if not please delete

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I can see how I can come off as rude. I was burned by GPUs getting kicked off the network, I do have a bitterness in me. However, I do belive in privacy coins, and want to see Zcash do well. It has some great tech.

I just hate watching them rewrite aspects of the coin when it suits their needs.

Well the conversation on the git Hub thread might actually be interesting to you

I have stopped using Zcash, I sold out back when GPUs were getting kicked off and havent been back. I think Zcash has alot of great tech, but it has burned me once already.

Still think of yourself as part of the community right? Regardless of if you mine or trade or even hold any at all you can still participate

I strongly support the Founders Reward as it is currently specified (10% of the total supply of 21 million ZEC, all distributed before the first block halvening), but I very much oppose any extension, and I would work vigorously to organize an opposition to any proposal to extend it.

To the extent that those associated with ZcashCo (owners, directors, and employees) still hold significant amounts of ZEC at the time that the Founders Reward runs dry, they will still have a strong incentive to continue to contribute to Zcash because their contributions could increase the value of their ZEC holdings.

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@Lisfin I used to be a GPU miner i have around 90,000 invested into GPU’s then when i heard ASICs were coming what did i do? did i become upset and complain no i moved my GPU’s over to snowgem for long term hold and I adapted…bought asics because i believe in this coin and the technology in it… Take it as you wish just my honest 0,02…

Very valid point, if you still hold the coins then still incentivized to contribute.

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1.) I agree, it was posted on the forum that everyone can apply to the community panel and vote, even me than back as a barely new community member has read it, but than again, i daily check all new topics that occur. Seems other people are only interested in a given topic and don’t bother to check new important topics. It’s their vault if they miss important announcements and messages due limited interess in ZEC, easy as that.

2.) The ideal voting in my opinion should happen with the wallet. 1 ZEC = 1 VOTE. After voting coins locked for the voting period, let’s say 3 days or whatever so no double voting can happen. Shouldn’t be too hard to implent something like that. Such voting would have several positive effects in my opinion:

  • only active ZEC holders are voting
  • the votes indeed represents the weight of the holder. I mean it doesn’t make much sense that someone mining and having 1 ZEC in his wallet should have the same weight as someone that bought 10.000 ZEC and holds them.
  • Everybody interested in voting can vote, increasing the number of voteres significantly.

I’ve read all posts here and I pretty much agree with everything that @Lisfin has said.

At the beginning of this post, @str4d tries to justify extending funding for ZcashCo after halving with “if community agrees” which later in the posts its proven that in case of ASIC resistance community vote had no weight whatsoever and the governance panel was just a show for the masses

Like @Lisfin already mentioned ZcashCo and Foundation will be holding quite some stash of Zcash at the end of 2020. They have incentive to keep growing value to it and working on it.

If you decide to change the rules mid game, who can guarantee that you wont change more stuff from your whitepaper and website?

Reason Bitcoin is successful is because it has no central figure deciding things in behalf of community. People know the rules wont be changed, can you say the same about Zcash ? What if you one day decide, 21 M coins isnt enough, lets make it 210M.

Like I already said, community has no vote in this, and only thing they can do is vote with their wallets and sell Zcash to the ground, and abandon it which many have done since May. I personally am against any extension of funding beyond 2020 halving. But will I have a vote in it ? No.

Getting back to topic as this topic derailed a lot in my opinion:

About extension of dev funding:

I’am a believer that devs need some funding but there are several different ways possible in my opinion. One is just extending the current funding like it is. Another could be a lower percent of the current one.
Another one, which i think would/could be better is with a POS or hybrid POS design to use the staking rewards for dev funding. This could as well raise the responsibility of the team as a whole.

It’s one thing if you have other parties (miners) generating the funding, when you have to generate it your own it’s a different story in my opinion. Right now literally nobody doesn’t care if the % dev funding is generated by 20.000 small miners or 1 big miner as they get the funding either way.

About 2019 ZEC predictions:

My personal limited prediction for ZEC in 2019 is everything but good, for several reasons:

  • first of all we messed it up with Asics, i personally regret having supported Asics than back, seriously. The active wallet count alone describes the problem, much less users and miners for ZEC, simple as that. Going down from 100k active wallet into the ~20k actice wallets range says a lot.

  • While Arjun Balaji is mentions just 2 things for ZEC which didn’t impress me in any way i see way more problems occuring in 2019. One of them is that the majority of ZEC volume in unreal, inflated/faked. Even coinmarketcap is excluding more and more exchanges these days from ZEC volume and it will continue. This inflated not excisting volume is one of the factors that adds to ZEC price. I await further going down with price until all that unreal volume gets kicked out from stats and misleads investors and holders.

  • Mining Centralization. We are in an era of low coin prices which just forces out miners of higher electricity countries, europe, japan, many parts of the US, and so on. Mining from here will take place in real low electricity cost places like some parts of China, Russia and some minor others. POW mining from now will daily force out private miners worldwide and shift mining power and/or mining rewards to the few low electricity cost regions mentioned. Logical this will have a negative effect as well in my opinion. Mostly leading as well to less active ZEC wallets, more chinese miners and so on…

  • The Haromony Blossom update/upgrade: A total fail approach in my opinion without any research and analyzing done. POW mining in generally struggled allready in 2018, in 2019 after ETH constantinople and later the POS change it will be just vanish expect for some very very few regions. All the remaining gpu coins can’t take the hashpower ETH is going to release than. While i see the intention to bring back gpu miners it will be way to late in Oct. 2019. We will see the first impact with ETH constantinople very soon when they lower the mining reward from 3 to 2. This allready will force a lot of ETH miners elsewhere.
    The Harmony Blossom upgrade intention is an indicator to me that ZEC doesn’t act fast enough to go with new better trends, see the full impact of a given change (like allowing Asics) and in my opinion and my biggest fear, it’s losing ground to direct competitors. For whatever reason ZEC developement is lagging in important matters and adapting to changed envirements… My prediction is this will cost us a lot as a lot of resources are invested in something that won’t work out good.

  • Direct Competition: Maybe the devs should have an eye on direct competition. There seem to be some other privacy coins coming strong. Grind, Beam and PIVx just to mention some of them. Grind and Beam’s impact have yet to been seen when they get released and known, but there is a good chance these are taking some privacy market shares from ZEC and XMR…

  • Only positive impacts i can see for 2019 is Bakt and the wallets that are finally worked on. Sure, Sapling is an improvement, BOLT coming mostly too, but will it be enough to outperform direct competition?

We will see how everything will turn out, but i’am prepared bearish for 2019…

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Would you be ok if they changed the algo again and kicked off all the current ASICs forcing you to buy 90k worth of hardware AGAIN…How many times do you accept them doing this before you become upset?

I guess its not such a big deal when you can just throw that much money at a coin when they change their stated parameters. Some people cant “reinvest” into new ASIC hardware everytime there is a change.

The people that got the first and second batch of ASICs are the ones that profited, Anyone else is screwed on ROI. But hey, atleast you “adapted” and bought the first or second batch units. What about everyone else that wasnt lucky enough because of short supplies?

But lets act morally superior, because you “adapted” and gambled on the new ASIC and that Zcash would not fork them off.