Arjun Balaji's "2019 predictions"


#61

Still think of yourself as part of the community right? Regardless of if you mine or trade or even hold any at all you can still participate


#62

I strongly support the Founders Reward as it is currently specified (10% of the total supply of 21 million ZEC, all distributed before the first block halvening), but I very much oppose any extension, and I would work vigorously to organize an opposition to any proposal to extend it.

To the extent that those associated with ZcashCo (owners, directors, and employees) still hold significant amounts of ZEC at the time that the Founders Reward runs dry, they will still have a strong incentive to continue to contribute to Zcash because their contributions could increase the value of their ZEC holdings.


The future of Zcash in the year 2020
#63

@Lisfin I used to be a GPU miner i have around 90,000 invested into GPU’s then when i heard ASICs were coming what did i do? did i become upset and complain no i moved my GPU’s over to snowgem for long term hold and I adapted…bought asics because i believe in this coin and the technology in it… Take it as you wish just my honest 0,02…


#64

Very valid point, if you still hold the coins then still incentivized to contribute.


#65

1.) I agree, it was posted on the forum that everyone can apply to the community panel and vote, even me than back as a barely new community member has read it, but than again, i daily check all new topics that occur. Seems other people are only interested in a given topic and don’t bother to check new important topics. It’s their vault if they miss important announcements and messages due limited interess in ZEC, easy as that.

2.) The ideal voting in my opinion should happen with the wallet. 1 ZEC = 1 VOTE. After voting coins locked for the voting period, let’s say 3 days or whatever so no double voting can happen. Shouldn’t be too hard to implent something like that. Such voting would have several positive effects in my opinion:

  • only active ZEC holders are voting
  • the votes indeed represents the weight of the holder. I mean it doesn’t make much sense that someone mining and having 1 ZEC in his wallet should have the same weight as someone that bought 10.000 ZEC and holds them.
  • Everybody interested in voting can vote, increasing the number of voteres significantly.

#66

I’ve read all posts here and I pretty much agree with everything that @Lisfin has said.

At the beginning of this post, @str4d tries to justify extending funding for ZcashCo after halving with “if community agrees” which later in the posts its proven that in case of ASIC resistance community vote had no weight whatsoever and the governance panel was just a show for the masses

Like @Lisfin already mentioned ZcashCo and Foundation will be holding quite some stash of Zcash at the end of 2020. They have incentive to keep growing value to it and working on it.

If you decide to change the rules mid game, who can guarantee that you wont change more stuff from your whitepaper and website?

Reason Bitcoin is successful is because it has no central figure deciding things in behalf of community. People know the rules wont be changed, can you say the same about Zcash ? What if you one day decide, 21 M coins isnt enough, lets make it 210M.

Like I already said, community has no vote in this, and only thing they can do is vote with their wallets and sell Zcash to the ground, and abandon it which many have done since May. I personally am against any extension of funding beyond 2020 halving. But will I have a vote in it ? No.


#67

Getting back to topic as this topic derailed a lot in my opinion:

About extension of dev funding:

I’am a believer that devs need some funding but there are several different ways possible in my opinion. One is just extending the current funding like it is. Another could be a lower percent of the current one.
Another one, which i think would/could be better is with a POS or hybrid POS design to use the staking rewards for dev funding. This could as well raise the responsibility of the team as a whole.

It’s one thing if you have other parties (miners) generating the funding, when you have to generate it your own it’s a different story in my opinion. Right now literally nobody doesn’t care if the % dev funding is generated by 20.000 small miners or 1 big miner as they get the funding either way.

About 2019 ZEC predictions:

My personal limited prediction for ZEC in 2019 is everything but good, for several reasons:

  • first of all we messed it up with Asics, i personally regret having supported Asics than back, seriously. The active wallet count alone describes the problem, much less users and miners for ZEC, simple as that. Going down from 100k active wallet into the ~20k actice wallets range says a lot.

  • While Arjun Balaji is mentions just 2 things for ZEC which didn’t impress me in any way i see way more problems occuring in 2019. One of them is that the majority of ZEC volume in unreal, inflated/faked. Even coinmarketcap is excluding more and more exchanges these days from ZEC volume and it will continue. This inflated not excisting volume is one of the factors that adds to ZEC price. I await further going down with price until all that unreal volume gets kicked out from stats and misleads investors and holders.

  • Mining Centralization. We are in an era of low coin prices which just forces out miners of higher electricity countries, europe, japan, many parts of the US, and so on. Mining from here will take place in real low electricity cost places like some parts of China, Russia and some minor others. POW mining from now will daily force out private miners worldwide and shift mining power and/or mining rewards to the few low electricity cost regions mentioned. Logical this will have a negative effect as well in my opinion. Mostly leading as well to less active ZEC wallets, more chinese miners and so on…

  • The Haromony Blossom update/upgrade: A total fail approach in my opinion without any research and analyzing done. POW mining in generally struggled allready in 2018, in 2019 after ETH constantinople and later the POS change it will be just vanish expect for some very very few regions. All the remaining gpu coins can’t take the hashpower ETH is going to release than. While i see the intention to bring back gpu miners it will be way to late in Oct. 2019. We will see the first impact with ETH constantinople very soon when they lower the mining reward from 3 to 2. This allready will force a lot of ETH miners elsewhere.
    The Harmony Blossom upgrade intention is an indicator to me that ZEC doesn’t act fast enough to go with new better trends, see the full impact of a given change (like allowing Asics) and in my opinion and my biggest fear, it’s losing ground to direct competitors. For whatever reason ZEC developement is lagging in important matters and adapting to changed envirements… My prediction is this will cost us a lot as a lot of resources are invested in something that won’t work out good.

  • Direct Competition: Maybe the devs should have an eye on direct competition. There seem to be some other privacy coins coming strong. Grind, Beam and PIVx just to mention some of them. Grind and Beam’s impact have yet to been seen when they get released and known, but there is a good chance these are taking some privacy market shares from ZEC and XMR…

  • Only positive impacts i can see for 2019 is Bakt and the wallets that are finally worked on. Sure, Sapling is an improvement, BOLT coming mostly too, but will it be enough to outperform direct competition?

We will see how everything will turn out, but i’am prepared bearish for 2019…


#68

Would you be ok if they changed the algo again and kicked off all the current ASICs forcing you to buy 90k worth of hardware AGAIN…How many times do you accept them doing this before you become upset?

I guess its not such a big deal when you can just throw that much money at a coin when they change their stated parameters. Some people cant “reinvest” into new ASIC hardware everytime there is a change.

The people that got the first and second batch of ASICs are the ones that profited, Anyone else is screwed on ROI. But hey, atleast you “adapted” and bought the first or second batch units. What about everyone else that wasnt lucky enough because of short supplies?

But lets act morally superior, because you “adapted” and gambled on the new ASIC and that Zcash would not fork them off.


#69

My point exactly. What is to prevent them from saying

"We are not going to change the mining rewards. But we need more funding. So we have increased the total coin supply to 42 million.That way we get double the funding now and you get to keep your mining rewards, its a WIN/WIN for everyone!"

Would people be ok with this? This would be taking coins from everyone, not just the miners.
I think alot more people would be upset at this decision, but taking more coins from the miners is “ok”.

Both ways increase funding, however im sure lots of people wouldnt want them to increase the money supply, but the same people think its ok to increase the founders rewards taking from the miners because it does not effect them.


#70

I dont know if its just me to notice this, but this seems scripted. To ask for extending of funding at this time when all of investors confidence in you is shaken to say the very least is not really smart thing to do.


#71

No one from ZcashCo has asked for the Founders Reward to be extended.


#72

True, that’s an important point @hloo


#73

Note that at no point was I even asking for the Founders Reward to be extended in a personal capacity. I was discussing the idea of an extension, and by extension (pun very much intended) Arjun’s 2019 prediction for Zcash:


#74

I did ask this question at the start of this thread, Im not sure I got a straight answer.

Has there been any talks with the Zcash teams about changing the current mining rewards in ANY way?

With the way Zooko said “I think this is the best, most insightful and comprehensive “turn of the year investor perspective” on the cybercoin market I’ve ever seen” , it sounds like he agrees with everything in that blog.

This is why I am asking if there have been any talks about changing the foundation rewards?


#75

I’ve decided to start a new thread to focus on the upcoming Zcash halving and funding/future questions, please feel free to join the discussion.


#76

If you could zap back to 2019 & let us know what the price is that’d be great :slight_smile:


#77

Sure, eazy pezy. The zcash price on January 3rd 2019 is about $59 :yum:


#78

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl: (20chars)


#79

Thoughts…

The founders reward covers things that wont be an issue two years from now, ie: paying off those first investors. Any idea how much that is? (Guessing lots).

With those costs gone a ‘new reward’ may not be an issue, depends on how much is needed to continue development, support, operations etc.


#80

Interesting, please post this on the other thread.