Let’s use absolute numbers. 1 H/s over 1 month is 2592000 hashes, or about 2.6 MH. We can then calculate the price per MH. For GM, for example, it would be $6500/(25 * 12 * 2.592M) = $8.359/MH, or 13.5 mBTC/MH. The Toomim auction would currently be gareth’s bid, or 5 BTC/(74 * 3 * 2.592M) = 8.7 mBTC/MH.
GM: 13.5 mBTC/MH over 12 months
ZP: 18.7 mBTC/MH over 6 months
TB: 8.7 mBTC/MH over 3 months
The first 6 months of Genesis Mining’s contract should be equivalent to the first 6 months of Zeropond’s. Assuming that their prices factor that in and are equally (un)reasonable, we can subtract them to estimate the value of the last 6 months of GM’s contract:
GM: 25 * 6 * 2.592M in first 6 months, 25 * 6 * 2.592M in last 6 months. Assume first 6 months are worth 18.7 mBTC/MH, or 7.27 BTC ($4485 USD) total. All 12 months are worth $6500 total, or 10.53 BTC. This means that the last six months are worth 3.26 BTC, or 8.38 mBTC/MH. This makes sense given that the network difficulty is likely to rise quickly, bringing mining revenues down sharply over time. So we have:
First 3 months: ?
First 6 months: 18.7 mBTC/MH
Last 6 months: 8.4 mBTC/MH
According to our current auction progress, the first 3 months are only worth 8.7 mBTC/MH. This suggests that our auction is currently heavily underpriced, ZP and GM are overpriced, or both.
“If you wish to add a second bid at a different price, please do! You’ll just need to send us (or OgNasty) a second bid deposit, and then add a second post on this thread.”
For the second bid deposit, can the bidder reuse the same deposit address that was used for the first bid deposit?
Yes. If you’re using OgNasty escrow, you need to tell him before you send. If you’re going straight through us with Bitcoin, you can just send with no warning, and we’ll be able to track it. If you’re using Ethereum, you will need to let us know before you send.
I have a public question regarding current & future price of the contracts.
Due to lack of competition now, or artificial scarcity selling 200H/s at a time, for example, the price of mining contracts is pretty high (compared to what you can ask with the same hardware on other currencies, that said). With more actors and less buyers tomorrow, that could change.
Anyhow, whatever the reason of a price fall, it would seem a bit unfair: usually early adopters pay higher for a better value, for being the first to own a product/service. Here, nobody get anything before launch. So if another company, and as a consequence, your next auctions, sell lower than the current one, the early adopters get screwed ?
Or, do you plan any form of compensation like refunding the difference for early adopters if a future auction ends up at a lower price than today ? Like zeropond extended the contrats and doubled the hashrates when the performance improvements where clear. Also later bidders in ZP get to mine only in december.
Maybe you could reassure your customers about that. Or this is just the market, early birds damage not your problem ?
I’d like to know your stance on that topic before bidding on you or ZP, given the great probability of performance getting even pretty soon.
Thanks
Edit: -highlight- that my concern is focused on pre-launch. After that, you get what you pay for!
@adrian That was the exact question I have in my mind!
I believe there would be much more participation to the auction if @jtoomim can give us a satisfying answer.
On the other hand, if the price goes up, the early adopters benefit. If you think the price is more likely to fall than to rise, don’t bid. If you think the price is more likely to rise than to fall (or if you expect that supply will be insufficient and all capacity will sell out), then you might want to bid.
I do not consider it my job to protect you from losing money. I am not here to shield you from risk. I am here to give everybody an honest offering, with no information held back and no hidden gotchas. What you do with that opportunity is your responsibility, not mine.
The offer I’m making is simple: Hashrate in exchange for up-front money. I will deliver on that contract exactly as I promise to.
If selling 1/20th of your capacity is really what you think “honest price discovery” is, I will have to disagree
Sellers (you) and buyers (us) have opposite interests, it’s ok, but you could add an incentive like ZeroPond which clearly state they will raise the hashrate for free if they can optimise, or if a better public miner gets available.
In the long run, it is almost a fact that price will be lower. As with all coins, price will be electricity + X%.
So yep, I will wait, ZP is not sold out and you have 5KH/s to sell. I bet on your next auction being less popular than the first. Too bad I cannot bid money on that
It’s a test auction. Do you think we should sell 100% of what we have all at once, 18 days before launch, without testing the format? As it is, I can barely keep up with all the bidders. If it were an auction for 5000 H/s, I would be totally swamped.
I want to sell 100% of my available hashrate. It will get sold, and I’ve been clear about when it will get sold and how much I have for sale.
Don’t blame me for the behavior of your competing bidders, please.
Sorry I did not want to sound harsh, appologies. Just wanted to point the resulting unfairness of the process, bidder point of view.
I wish the best for the auction outcome !
Also, this being a test auction, so will I make a “test bid” at the highest current price to materialise my interest, and appreciation of your work and performance achievements
I think my horn needs a little tooting. Excuse me for a moment.
At 100 mBTC/(H/s) over 3 months, the current auction price is 12.86 mBTC per MH, delivered in the first three months of ZCash existence. This is for GPUs that we already have installed and tested on Ethereum with software that we have demonstrated publicly on testnet on video.
According to my earlier calculations, Zeropond’s prices are 18.7 mBTC/MH, and would not start until December and would be spread out over 6 months. This is for capacity that Zeropond has not yet installed with software of unknown performance, from a startup with an unproven track record.
It’s still possible that 12.86 mBTC per MH is too expensive, of course.
So by my calculations a contract at Toomim (if priced the same as Zeropond) you’d be looking at a bid of circa 10 H/s @ 1.452 BTC (145 mBTC/(H/s)). This ignores length of contract and timing of mining start and significantly any improvements Zeropond make to their miner over the coming weeks.
This ignores length of contract and timing of mining start and significantly any improvements Zeropond make to their miner over the coming weeks
Yep, i’m happy to pay more for a company like ZP that said they will improve my contract for free (and they did) if they are able too. I appreciate the fact that given I buy their risk, they share additional profit with me if it increases.
Question of course is: how much more? Let’s see the outcome of the auction. Also I agree with @jtoomim about the early stage mining to come at a natural premium. So the decision is hard, as both @jtoomim 3 month contract (vs ZP 6 month), and the way ZP makes business, are appealing.
According to my math, bids are finally getting similar to ZP and GM. The 175 mBTC/(3 mo * 1 H/s) bid that we just received from thosek is equivalent to 22 mBTC/MH once you reduce the units, which is higher than ZP’s rates, but only by about as much as I would think that the differences in hashrate delivery timing would be worth. The other bids are equal to or lower than ZP’s rates.
This does make private bids fairly pointless - I suspect people will just evaluate the break price for public bids and attempt to bid the same privately. There are ways you could offer private bidding without any opportunity for you to overcharge people. The simplest is:
Everyone submits the hash of their bid and sends you a deposit at least large enough to cover it.
At the end of the auction, everyone must reveal their bids publicly. Anyone who doesn’t reveal forfeits their deposit.
Anyone can now sort the bids and determine the list of winners and the price everyone pays.
Would it be possible for future auctions to end at different times of the day?
Could be very helpful for those of us not in your time zone wanting to place bids close to the end of the auction (myself, am at GMT-2, so 10 time zones away).
If I got it right, you intend to hold multiple auctions until the 5,000 H/s (possibly more) is sold. So seems reasonable to rotate the ending auction time say at 6 or 8 hour intervals. Or whatever other scheme seems fair to you.
