Could Deflationary money work long term?

Such failures are often caused by liquidity crises which are much more likely in a deflationary environment. Market capitalism is a financial system and financial accounting is nominal. Whenever the general means of payment becomes too scarce to support the liability structure of the economy, you get insolvencies which lead to asset liquidations which lead to the collapse of collateral values which leads to more liquidations, etc. The aftermath is rarely pretty and often dangerous.

In most advanced economies, the supply of money is endogenous and central banks are merely reacting to whatever the economy throws at them. It is true that central banks accommodating a very high demand for credit and savings contributes to inflation. But that’s far from a sufficient reason to switch to a deflationary monetary system.

By “devalue assets” I’m assuming you mean the increase in nominal asset prices, which bolsters the net worth of asset holders and improves their ability to service debts. I agree that there are negative second order effects that have mostly to do with inequality, but again, I don’t see how this is a sufficient reason to switch to a deflationary monetary system.

By definition, everyone cannot simultaneously accumulate a scarce asset, just like everyone cannot simultaneously save in a fixed supply money. But everyone (who holds the asset) can simultaneously benefit from its price appreciation, which is what happens to homeowners and ZEC hodlers when central banks are doing their best to keep asset values high. But it’s a category error to view money itself as an investment vehicle. If you make claims to real resources scarce, by definition, fewer people will have access to real resources.

If the demand and thus the price of the asset is increasing, asset holders are actually disincentivized to spend their asset. Instead, they are incentivized to borrow against the asset to acquire more assets. As their gains increase, they are incentivized to liquidate only as little as needed to satisfy their desire for consumption.

There’s a marginal strand of heterodox economics whose intellectual legacy is tied to keeping this idea alive. As is the case with many other ideas in economics, I’m afraid it’s survival has more to do with politics/ideology than real-world experience or empirical research.

In other words, you would not feel comfortable recommending that millions of people take out mortgages or that businesses denominate contracts in ZEC? But that’s a core function of money: to serve as a financial unit of account. It seems to me that what you’re describing is not money but an investment vehicle. One can certainly aspire to turn single units of money into investment assets but I’ve always found it a rather curious (and economically dangerous!) objective.

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One of my favorite economists Milton Friedman talks Money and Inflation!

“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”

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Digital scarce money is new and we can call everything in the cryptocurrency world an experiment. Every argument kind be made against this new deflationary money.
Even though I wouldn’t want to limit Zcash to a digital gold narrative; What if Zash acts as the reserve/digital gold which is also programmable - to enable tokenized assets with elastic supply?
This would allow for a smoother transition to a new economy that will find a way to function with the completely deflationary asset as a core, but increasing divisibility every few years. Eastern countries’ governments are known for their 5-year plans, maybe they decide to move the decimal point for accounting for their plan. Take a look at $XEC (eCash, a fork of BCH with a Dev Fund) which decided to move the decimals by 6 places to the right. FAQ

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It’s almost like your explaining the housing market to me.

In many cities the older generations have been able to pay off their mortgage for a free standing home and have benefited from the rise in price. They are even incentivised to loan against their existing home to purchase more property. Many younger generations are struggling to afford to buy a small unit and pay it off over 30years. If this trend continues what kind of housing will the kids of 2050 be able to afford?

Although cryptocurrency is indeed a novel technological experiment, what you’re describing is an old and well-known idea. In the minds of some hard money advocates, this is what both the classical gold standard and the more recent gold-exchange standard were supposed to approximate, although neither was deflationary in aggregate due to the constant discovery of new gold deposits.

The problem with fixed exchange rate and other inelastic money regimes is that they have proved difficult to maintain in the long run: in a growing economy, the demand for credit can easily overwhelm what a relatively inelastic monetary base can support. And one of the lessons of economic history is that, when it comes to credit creation, the financial sector can be extremely creative in bypassing rules and regulations that are supposed to keep the broad money supply under strict control.

Note that the supply of credit money in modern economies is determined by the confluence of millions of individual decisions by financial professionals, entrepreneurs, business managers, and consumers. It is driven by demand from (presumably) creditworthy borrowers - something that governments and central banks can’t (and in my opinion, shouldn’t even try to) directly control, apart from providing clear rules around prudent/responsible underwriting. Of course, governments could institute a rule that all credit tokens must be backed by a deflationary base asset. But isn’t that the exact opposite of decentralization, effectively letting a small group of individuals decide how much credit the hugely complex, dynamic, and technologically advanced contemporary economy should have? I do recognize the need for regulations to discipline the financial sector. But it has proven to be a never-ending game of whac-a-mole. As long as people are free to enter into financial contracts, and the demand for credit is there, the financial sector will always find a way to create money-like instruments outside of the regulated system (a la shadow banking).

Credit economies are inherently unstable because credit liquidity is pro-cyclical: it tends to overshoot on the way up and then dries up exactly when it’s most needed. And that’s partly why we’ve arrived at the current institutional setup capable of regularly saving financial capitalism from itself. The reason why I’m bringing this up is that the ideal of tying the whole decentralized financial system to an inelastic monetary base has proved rather elusive in practice - if a growing, complex, technologically and financially advanced market economy keeps rejecting it, perhaps it’s not the right model?

I want to be very clear that I’m not saying that cryptocurrencies in general can’t be money, or that hard-capped cryptocurrencies specifically can’t be used as money in certain contexts, incl. as collateral for issuing credit tokens. All that is not only perfectly feasible but already happening. I’m merely pointing out the practical problems in trying to enforce a rather narrow conception of deflationary money as the appropriate foundation for financial capitalism as a whole.

@gottabeJay above referenced Milton Friedman who, among other things, proposed the “k-percent rule” by which the central bank would programmatically increase the money supply at a constant rate annually, irrespective of what goes on in the economy. The goal of such a rule was exactly to counteract the negative effects of deflation. I’m sure many will appreciate the irony in Friedman’s rule being a perfect example of bureaucratic hubris: believing that a single individual or a small committee of experts can come up with a number that’s appropriate for the whole economy each and every year. A form of financial authoritarianism, if you will. What Friedman failed to understand is that, in modern economies, the supply of money is determined endogenously and not controlled by central banks who have the thankless job of having to clean up after market-driven excess. While it is certainly possible to impose all sorts of rules on society when it comes to money, enforcing these rules is a different story altogether, not least because money can take many different forms, regardless of what some monetary ideologue thinks or tries to prescribe for society as a whole. To quote Alan Greenspan: “Although it is surely correct to conclude that an excess of money relative to output is the fundamental source of inflation, what specifically constitutes money is a notion that has, so far, eluded our analysis.”

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Indeed, this dynamic is typical of the housing market. And it makes sense: everyone needs housing, home ownership is a very common aspiration, and many mortgagors (it’s a word, I double checked) are more than happy to benefit from the rise in real estate prices as soon as the opportunity presents itself. And you don’t even need a housing shortage or a lot of buyers to inflate prices - you only need enough well-resourced buyers to purchase homes not to live in but as an investment. Given the rise in wealth inequality in many parts of the world in recent decades, I’m sure there’s no shortage of such buyers who, unfortunately, are making it more difficult for the rest of society to purchase homes. This is not my area of expertise but, as far as I can tell, most governments are quite reluctant to intervene in the housing market in a way that would reduce inequality. And my guess is most homeowners aren’t complaining about that either.

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Mmm, exactly. And it highlights a key point. Both inflationary and deflationary assets/currency can create bad outcomes and inequality. The topic is extraordinarily complicated.

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A very simple partial solution would be to selectively subsidize home ownership to ensure that more people can benefit from real estate appreciation. But there’s usually political resistance to such “unfair” proposals. Also, in recent decades, housing-price-to-income ratios have not been universally above their long-run average - it depends on the region. I believe the situation is worse in countries where labor has little collective leverage in making sure wages are regularly corrected for inflation and/or track profitability, or where it’s not a social/corporate norm to make sure all workers are adequately compensated.

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High inflation with a large UBI?

I think inflation-indexed basic income and/or a job guarantee in financially underappreciated but socially valuable areas are ideas worth exploring. Also, I think everyone could care a lot less about moderate nominal inflation (which, as I mentioned above, is actually a pretty good way of ensuring that most people are able to pay most of their bills/debts most of the time which, in turn, is great for social cohesion/stability) if we took more decisive action to curb wealth and income inequality. But I definitely don’t think that a deflationary monetary system would do much good in that regard. Economists have long pointed out that deflation, especially when it evolves into an economy-wide liquidity crisis and a depression, is not such a bad time for the relatively wealthy who have the means to not only weather a temporary storm but also to buy fire sale assets, as opposed to smaller businesses, debtors, and workers who would be forced into liquidation/bankruptcy en masse.

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Thanks for the side chat. I agree inflation is wicked. It just gets a bad name when connected to bailouts and profiteering.

Back on topic

We have a fundamental problem with this debate. We are fooling ourselves into thinking we actually have a say in the matter. We are moving into what I call “the era of liquidity”. In 5-10 years we will all walk (virtually or otherwise) into a local store and buy whatever goods or services we want in whatever asset we want. It just won’t matter. We will wave some finger, hand, wrist, or tongue and wow within seconds our payment was settled.

In that era let us imagine 2 types of ZECs exist. Inflationary and deflationary? What will each be used for @mlphresearch?

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I once concluded that it’s quite reasonable to think of monetary accounting - historical, national, credit, digital, crypto, whatever - as part of a single whole that just keeps on expanding, at least as long as human civilization keeps expanding into deeper and deeper niches geographically, technologically, economically, culturally. But much more important than the purchasing power of any single unit at a point in time is the social distribution of all units combined. I think if we’re able to strike a good balance between making sure initiative/ability are appropriately rewarded on the one hand, and avoiding excessive concentration on the other (which is a strong tendency in most monetary systems we’ve experimented with), people wouldn’t care so much about nominal inflation because, by definition, society as a whole will always be able to consume whatever it is capable of producing in real terms. I just think that, as long as population and economic activity are growing, it’s much more challenging in a deflationary environment where contractual liabilities inherited from the past are nominally fixed but the prices and thus incomes and profits in the present may be declining.

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Depends on the public narrative/perception but I’d say it’s more likely that the inflationary asset is used as money, whereas the more scarce asset is used to store and/or grow long-term wealth as part of a broader portfolio of investment assets that can be used as collateral for credit. Of course, that doesn’t exclude anyone from using the latter instead of money, e.g. to occasionally pay people. But just like most financially literate people wouldn’t want to take on debt or make regular payments denominated in an appreciating asset, I’d be very surprised if deflationary ZEC is widely adopted as money (i.e. that which is most commonly used as a financial unit of account and a general means of exchange).

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I forgot to mention the other thing that’s going to happen. In 10years everyone is going to act super rational (aka smart contracts). Anytime anyone receives inflationary ZEC will be converted into deflationary ZEC.

Maybe I’m missing something. How can inflationary ZEC can have real utility when nobody actually wants to receive it? Won’t the rational smart contracts consider that irrational and just pay directly in deflationary ZEC?

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I’m going to answer try to answer my own question here. Because participation in ZEC is a choice. And if deflationary ZEC leads to inequality (which it probably would) people will choose not to participate.

Okay, now we’re in the “let’s assume” land of mainstream economists who have always been fond of assuming individual rationality only to be proven again and again that real people don’t universally act in accordance with theoretical assumptions. But sure, just like anyone is currently free to convert as much of their income into investment assets as possible, people will always be free to convert all of their income into deflationary ZEC. Indeed, it would seem rational for everyone to convert every last penny of their free cash into a handful of assets they believe have the highest likelihood of appreciating in the future. But for some reason people are more stubborn than rational. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that they’re not perfectly clairvoyant when it comes to the events in the fundamentally uncertain future? :slight_smile:

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Sorry, you’re right. We’d first we’d have to define rational at what term and risk :person_shrugging:. The truely rational thing to do (for society) would be to participate in the system that is a balance of fairness while maximising gross output. And that would likely be inflationary :person_shrugging:.

You win, good chat. Doesn’t take much to convince me inflation is a good thing :joy:.

Next question. How do we include a UBI in the system? /S :joy:

EDIT: Once we have OSAs (aka ZSAs) we should RFP for a proof of life token :joy:

If you mean UBI denominated in government-backed currencies then that probably needs to go through the so-called democratic process where one needs either exceptional leadership, very powerful allies, popular support, or most probably, all three combined.

In a way, we already have UBI, except that it’s only for people who are already rich - it’s called interest. For everyone else, it comes in the form of public infrastructure and other universally accessible public goods/benefits. We just haven’t taken the leap, at scale, to expand that to either a universal monthly payment or perhaps a negative income tax. I don’t know why we haven’t done it. Either we can’t figure out the details, or it’s still too much of an ideological taboo to get political buy in. It might also fail miserably so perhaps no one wants to take the risk (although my impression is that the results of various pilot projects have been promising).

Another option would be to keep everything (incl. wages) as is but just give everyone an extra day off :smirk: (although that’s a completely different proposition from the point of view of anyone who for whatever reason isn’t currently and probably won’t be employed in the future).

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It surprises me too.

In relation to a cryptocurrency I’d be all for an experimental inflationary token that distributes equally amongst holders of a proof of life token.

EDIT: looks like it’s a thing https://www.proofofhumanity.id/

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