I think this is a really insightful tweet stream from Nick Szabo.
I concur: macroeconomics is not a science.
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Trust and security considerations are far more important than speculations about aggregate human behavior. Psychologists have a hard time making their experiments on individuals repeatable. Macroeconomists speculate about vast numbers of interacting individuals, no repeatability.
High inflation causes savers and creditors large tangible harms, as we see today in Venezuela, Iran, Sudan, Nigeria, Argentina, &c. But alleged harms caused by much lower levels of “bad deflation” are very causally remote from monetary decisions – it’s ideological speculation.
While macroeconomic debates are very popular in the fiat central banking world, where monetary decisions are highly political, they are nevertheless ideological speculations not science.
For these reasons, I strongly urge those developing or maintaining cryptocurrencies to focus on trust minimization and security. Protect holders against internally caused loss of value, but treat macroeconomic considerations with many grains of salt and very low priority.
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