Blockchain(coin) and Pachinko(coin)

I sometimes think about Japan when I look at the blockchain industry.

Japan officially bans gambling. Yet anyone who has visited the country knows that pachinko parlors are everywhere. People put money into machines, win prizes, and somehow those prizes can be exchanged for cash. Everyone understands what is happening, even if the legal structure insists on describing it differently.

For a long time, I thought this was simply a contradiction. But the older I get, the more I think it reveals something important about how states actually work.

Many people see pachinko as a loophole. I increasingly see it as something else.

My view is that the Japanese state never faced a simple choice between allowing the Yakuza and eliminating them. The Yakuza occupied parts of society that governments often struggle to manage directly. They operated in grey areas, maintained informal networks, and, in some ways, helped impose order in spaces where the state itself did not always want to intervene.

That does not make them good. But it may have made them useful.

From this perspective, pachinko looks less like a contradiction and more like a political solution. If the Yakuza were going to exist regardless, then providing them with a visible and relatively controlled source of revenue may have been preferable to pushing them toward activities that were far more harmful to society.

In other words, pachinko was not merely tolerated. It provided a space where a force that could not easily be removed could operate in a way that was easier to observe, influence, and contain. Rather than eliminating the force, the state gave it boundaries.

Governments do not always eliminate things they dislike. Sometimes they decide that managing a force is easier than destroying it. A force that is given a place within society can be observed, regulated, taxed, and contained. A force that is pushed completely underground often becomes harder to understand and harder to control.

This idea keeps coming back to me whenever I look at Bitcoin and the broader blockchain industry.

Many people still describe Bitcoin as a challenge to state power. In its early years, that was certainly part of the story. Cypherpunks, libertarians, and later Bitcoin maximalists believed that money issued by governments was not the only possible foundation for a global economy. Some even believed that a form of money created outside the state could one day become a global standard.

But if we step back and look at what actually happened, the picture becomes more complicated.

Most governments did not embrace Bitcoin as money. They did not replace their currencies with it. They did not start paying salaries or collecting taxes in it. Instead, they allowed exchanges to exist, allowed speculation to grow, and treated cryptocurrencies largely as assets rather than currencies.

In other words, people were free to call Bitcoin money, but governments continued to run society using national currencies.

This reminds me of pachinko.

The participants call it one thing. The state calls it another. Both sides understand the reality, yet both sides continue to participate in the arrangement because it serves a purpose.

The rise of stablecoins makes this even more interesting.

For years, people imagined cryptocurrency as something that would compete with the dollar. Yet the largest and most successful stablecoins are built around the dollar itself. The more these networks grow, the more demand they create for dollar-denominated assets and, in many cases, for U.S. government debt.

Instead of destroying the existing financial system, parts of the crypto industry have ended up extending it.

The relationship looks less like a revolution and more like an accommodation.

This is where I think the AI story becomes important.

Most blockchain discussions still focus on human users. Investors. Traders. Speculators.

But the future may involve participants that are not human at all.

An AI agent does not have a passport. It does not have a bank account. It does not have citizenship. Yet it may eventually need to buy data, rent computing power, pay for services, or enter into agreements with other AI systems.

At that point, the question changes.

The issue is no longer whether blockchain can replace government money. The issue becomes whether blockchain can provide a shared economic infrastructure for entities that do not fit neatly into traditional financial systems.

Seen from this perspective, the long-term survival of blockchain networks may have less to do with ideology and more to do with utility.

The original narrative was about escaping the system.

The current narrative is increasingly about supporting the system.

The next narrative may be about providing an economic environment where AI systems can interact with each other.

Whether that future arrives or not remains uncertain.

But when I think about why blockchain has survived for so long despite endless criticism, I find myself returning to the same thought.

Perhaps it survives for the same reason pachinko survived.

Not because those in power fully believe in its stated purpose, but because it has gradually found a place within a larger system that has decided it is more useful to manage than to eliminate.

1 Like

This remembers me the history of Catholic Church in Europe during the transition from feudalism to capitalism… Same institution, different social role. Adapt or perish, but without distorting yourself. Same for Italian crime orgs such as mafia, camorra, 'ndrangheta. It seems to be the secret to a century (or more)-long life. Many of these institutions (re)affirmed themeselves surviving periods of even violent social upheaval, blockchains will survive to the next one?

Sometimes these social forces don’t simply find a place in the established system, but totally revert it (ie. bourgeois merchants vs. feudal lords, wage labor vs. serfdom).

Again, thanks for sharing such interesting thoughts!

@jenkin

Jenkin’s words made me go back and study part of European history again. Thank you.

One well-known fact is that the United States has treated Bitcoin as a strategic national security asset, and this might be one clue worth paying attention to. If the United States were to treat BTC not just as a single standalone asset, but instead give it a kind of network-based control function, and apply frameworks like access rights and credentials to it, and further connect it with something like AGI, very interesting things could happen.

For example, a “1 BTC network” could appear. It could work as a form of entry pass or proof of access rights for AGI systems controlled by the United States. It is said that among individually searchable on-chain addresses, around 800,000 to 1.2 million hold at least 1 BTC. Even holding just 1 BTC can therefore demonstrate a significant level of scarcity. In comparison, the number of millionaires worldwide is estimated to be around 50 to 60 million people, depending on the definition and data source (for example, UBS and Credit Suisse wealth reports commonly place it in that range in recent years). Against that backdrop, owning 1 BTC already places it within a relatively scarce category when compared to the global population of millionaires.

For instance, if someone wants to buy real estate in certain areas of New York City or Washington, or if a vehicle wants to enter or pass through certain districts, they might need that network access pass. And as proof of that, there could be a requirement like “this corresponds to 1–100 BTC.” If I were Trump, I would consider implementing such a system (after accumulating around 3 million BTC as a national asset).

European Catholic churches and Italian mafia organizations both built strong networks on their own. From the perspective of maintaining the state system, they each played a role in maintaining order in both “good” and “bad” parts of society. For the state, that kind of supporting role became the reason these networks were able to survive. A blockchain is closer to a protocol, but I will call it a network for convenience. In that sense, I am not sure whether a blockchain can become a strong network like the Catholic Church in Europe or the Mafia.

However, it might be possible if a framework emerges that plays a social role, like something similar to “1 BTC” mentioned before.

Someone is trying to build such a network…

@jenkin

I have also been thinking about these ideas over the past two weeks.
My thoughts were expanding based on the network of a certain cryptocurrency (x**).
I have been thinking about the idea of a digital state.
I seriously considered it, but in the end I removed the idea from my mind after thinking about the conditions needed to create a state.
Personally, I concluded that it is not possible.
You can build a strong network, but it will only be temporary, and I do not think a nation-level network is possible.
In my view, every problem eventually stops at one point: the problem of “proving and maintaining trust.”

The proof and maintenance of trust only works across generations within the relationship of marriage and childbirth.
In Korea, there is a saying: “Blood is thicker than water.”
Blood relations operate beyond beliefs of right and wrong, good and bad, and even beyond interest-based relationships.
They can create the strongest kind of network.
However, even that kind of network can be absorbed if a nation-level network is severely outcompeted by surrounding countries.

For example, when a country goes to war, it always establishes a justification. Soldiers are reminded of their belief that they are defending their country and their families. “Whether I die or you die, let’s settle this.”

This is not about right or wrong, and it is not about profit or loss. It is a matter of survival connected by blood. A network that does not have enough people with this level of commitment cannot become a nation. Can a digital nation be built with a simple frame like: “you can earn more money” or “we can handle education and health problems”?

Therefore, from my point of view, a digital nation is a unicorn.
Of course, with ideas like this, a few scammers might be able to deceive people and take their money.