I agree that in theory it should be like that, eventually even hoping that it would be like that, but in practice it’s not like that in my opinion.
Best example is the BTC, electricity cost is raising daily, but its price isn’t. All altcoins are somehow bound to the BTC trend, unluckly of course, but that’s how it is in practice right now.
Your price/electricity calculation does fit even less with POS coins, or even hybrid coins.
I personally think the calculation is a bit more difficult to make even to get somehow a factor that influences the price a bit with electricity, but it isn’t the pure electricity usage, but more the network itself including the network security. Now the argument could be that this is again based on electricity, but it’s not necessary as more and more efficient machines could handle the same network job than current machines.
There are more arguments in my opinion which oppose the pure electricity usage as a price maker.
Just some examples:
- Dash, hybrid POW/POS: Following the electricity logic POS would lower the price. But that’s against all the price pure POS coins have (about 1/2 of the top 20 coins are POS!).
- ERC20 tokens, all these should have no value as the value of POW mining and electricity usage is added allready to ETH. The other scenario would be that all ERC20 tokens lower ETH’s value, meaning the more ERC20 tokens are around, the less ETH would have own value.
I even can’t see any logic that value from electricity usage would be different in bull or bearish markets, either it got/has value from it or it doesn’t. It can’t be applied just here and there for a limited time.
And i agree with the argument that a big investor has no idea who when where it’s mined. It’s just logical. Just because we, the small miners, know a lot of these details is because we MUST know it to successfull mine. For investors this is of little to no value at all. No investor cares if a coin is mined with a GTX 1070 or a Baikal Asic, even less how much power and electricity is needed for these. There are other way more important factors like liquidity, network security and whatever not that are of way more interest for these.
Of course that’s just my opinion and it could be flawed as well.