Difficulty Rising


#1

Network difficulty is rising fast. It’s safe to assume batch 2 of the Z9 Minis have started shipping and are coming online. Typically in the last few weeks difficulty has oscillated between 11M and 17M, usually averaging in the 13M to 15M range. Since yesterday any drops in difficulty have been substantially shorter in duration that the monthly average, and I would speculate that we’ll see difficulty breach 20M by the end of the week. By the end of September, 30M is likely, so mining revenue in ZEC terms should be 50% of what it is today. Just a warning for miners who are receiving shipments and thinking this is level of income is going to last; It won’t.


#2

Expect it to go up 50% in the next 45 days. When the Dash ASIC miners went into service last year, the difficulty went up 8 times IIRC in a span of ~100 days. (projecting 400Msol to come on from ~8000 miners)

What does that mean to your average ZCash miner? Right now you need to have 5.1ksol to mine one ZEC per month. I would estimate that by the end of September, that Innosilicon miner will produce about 5 ZEC per moth if my difficulty projections are correct.

I miss GPU mining…sighs…

The real wildcard will be what is the near term going to be like, and what does ZCash plan for ASIC mining and when or if anything?


#3

Right now at 19.5M, rising fast …


#4

Well it’s only been one day and we managed to breach 20M at block #384081. Not looking good for us miners considering the majority of the new shipments have yet to arrive.

@phakov I would actually be happy if difficulty only went up 50% in the next 45 days, so I hope you’re right. But if Dash is any indication of what’s coming, then we’re all in big trouble.


#5

Not dropping below 18M, that’s a 20% jump in one day…


#6

This must have been a few large buyers, or they all arrived at once.


#7

First batch break even point will be the end of the year if this keeps up. It looks like they are releasing a new batch every 2 weeks now.


#8

actually it was a spike only as it seems, right now back to 15M…


#9

It’s been like this for 2 weeks at least.

200-250 Mh/s is hoping* up online only 12 hours a day.

10 hours ago zcash hit 1000M/Sols total hashrate for the first time


#11

Some regions have electric pricing that is time of use dependent. Running only at night may be the profitable option for some farm.


#12

I doubt this. I mean with the current profitability the electricity cost must be USD 1.00 per kw/h or so to make it not profitable.


#13

Here’s what happened last year when the D3 ASIC’s when into service for Dash…

My estimates are on 8000 ASIC miners going onto the ZCash network at 50kSol each. My guess is based with the “data” released from BM recently stating the number of Z9’s they’ve sold. I’ve effectively doubled that value and added some more “fudge factor” into it.

Since we are at a different time in Crypto, however, the impact to difficulty may not be as bad as what happened to Dash because cryptos are not doing well now and they were exploding then. But no matter what, time will give us more facts.


#14

I just received notice from my supplier that he’s sold a large batch of A9’s to a single customer in Canada that will be shipped the first week of September. He also mentioned that Innosilicon is also claiming to have almost sold out of their September batch, so there will likely be several thousand more A9’s coming online before October.

All I can say is that buyers remorse is heavy with these ASICs, and I feel sorry for anyone who has ordered and is waiting on these new batches. Achieving ROI will be impossible without a new crypto bull market, which isn’t likely in my opinion. It’s hard to stay optimistic when you’re witnessing the death of PoW mining.

I think @zooko needs to take a public stance that Zcash will switch to PoS sooner rather than later, which should at least discourage some capital investment in ASICs and incentivize people to accumulate ZEC for future staking purposes.


#15

So what your saying is that it was a bad decision to order 9 Z9s from batch 1? Cause that’s what i ended up doing praying the market didn’t get completely flooded come September…


#16

STOP THE FUD. SHARE PROOF OR STFU

You will ROI don’t worry.
Horizen (ex ZenCash) 100% confirmed not forking.


#17

Thank you for this info… I was just really starting to think i made a wrong decision…


#18

My estimates for the difficulty rate over the near term of 90 to 120 days is that we will see it increase about 4-6 times over what it is now. I was considering getting Z9’s too, but I backed off, choosing to wait all of this out.

Since ZCash has made no indication as to their intentions moving forward other than an “announcement” sometime later this year, it looks like ASIC’s will be operating full steam through at least very early 19.

I would go back to GPU mining BTG, but since most of the value drained out of the market, I’ve shut them down for now.

I still believe the difficulty graph of DSH will be a good barometer of the future ahead for ZEC.


#19

I can’t say for sure, but I received 10 A9’s about a month ago and they’re already earning about 33% less than last month. Assuming network difficulty goes up 30% per month (a low estimate in my opinion) and ZEC stays at $150, then my units will just barely make a positive ROI around the Spring of 2019. If the network difficulty grows any faster, I’ll never see an ROI without a substantial increase in the price of ZEC.

Nice. Here’s your “proof”:


#20

It just seems as if every move i make is a mistake… Back in may i bought 48 vega cards didn’t even end up using them took over a 15,000 loss when they were all sold off… Now im just worried about these asics… I wanna mine zcash with them but i may end up using mine on zclassic or else horizen… I just want my money back out of them and to make a somewhat decent income after electricity from them… not looking to get rich by any means but also not wanting them to not be worth running either.,…


#21

@Hannibal I think you’ll still ROI with the first batch of the Z9’s, so you probably didn’t make a mistake. I paid a higher price for the A9’s and I had the unfortunate luck of receiving some bad units, so my expectations aren’t great, but I still mine because I believe in Zcash for the long-term. And if a new bull market comes around in 2020, then it would be very hard not to ROI assuming you can hold off on selling your coins. That’s what I did with Ethereum in early 2016 and all my mined coins went up 100x. I’m not saying ZEC will do the exact same thing, but anything is possible. I think all major financial institutions demand privacy, and if they adopt Zcash as a digital currency standard then it could easily overtake Bitcoin in market value.