What's stopping the value of zcash from soaring?

General
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I noticed that many are against the development fund, I even understand, as there must be a lot of inefficiency, but I believe that this is not what hinders the value of zcash.

Suppose the development fund is not renewed, what do you think will happen? Yes, nothing will happen, or rather what will happen is that the speed of development will be slowed down, as no programmer will want to waste time working without earning a salary for it. Zcash will be left behind, with almost no developers left, only those who take development as a hobby will be left.

In my opinion, what holds back the value of zcash is precisely the risk, as Zcash involves many risks, as governments want privacy to audit negotiations, and to be able to pressure exchanges to hand over the identity of individuals who are acting outside the law.

Bitcoin, in the beginning, when the government found it difficult to identify individuals, there was pressure to reject it from the government, putting pressure on the banks. Here in my country where I live, banks simply canceled the accounts of those who were involved with Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, but over the last few years, the banks themselves are starting to allow the purchase of Bitcoin. Isn’t that strange? Before they were against it and canceled accounts, now Bitcoin has become a differentiator for banks.

What holds back the value of zcash is the risk of regulation, the risk of governments persecuting those who own private cryptocurrencies, the government does not want privacy, which is why they want to do away with physical money and implement CBDCs.

A good number of Zcash holders are disappointed, they don’t understand how Zcash doesn’t increase in value, they imagine that if they had invested in another cryptocurrency they would have been much more successful. One way to take out frustration is to blame someone, but they don’t blame those who are actually holding back the value of zcash, they want to blame the founding team and developers.

but explain to me why MonerĂł is stronger than Zcash?

Monero is completely private, while Zcash has two sides of the coin (privacy and transparency), those who really want total privacy, the most radical, will give much more value to Monero, the chance of the government identifying individuals is minimal and Monero fans know this and the community becomes stronger, but there is also the risk that at some point no government will accept Monero, there is also the risk that criminals will give preference to Monero for money laundering, as there is no way to identify the individuals, soon the government will be completely against any type of privacy coin, forgetting that Zcash serves the government’s needs. ok it can be private, but it needs a certain transparency to identify individuals, that’s why binance has not yet removed Zcash, as we have this difference of being private, but we have the transparent side to adapt to government requirements. but no one appreciates this, the wave of the moment is different.

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The only thing I’m against in the development fund is inefficiency, there had to be greater rigidity, demand for results. I believe that the development fund is necessary for the evolution of Zcash, the developers, media sponsorships and broad publicity are necessary, but there had to be greater rigidity, greater monitoring, as money is scarce, even more so now with Zcash nearing lows. the founding team and developers, the entire team that makes the Zcash system work need to be well aligned, avoiding unnecessary fights, avoiding everything that demotivates and everything that appears to Zcash holders, it needs to function like a large corporation, with a high professional level, I believe that Zcash already has this level, the only thing missing is efficiency in spending the development fund and seeking other sources of income.

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The market cap of Bitcoin is the outstanding bounty to take it down.

Zcash’s market cap should be the same, but there’s sell pressure from all angles and the dev fund mechanism, especially at current prices, has created the unfortunate downward spiral.

Why would anyone invest in an org or project that doesnt even value its own asset.

Letting Zcash stand on its own without leeching directly at the protocol level would likely allow Zcash to spread its wings as a pure privacy preserving SoV without constant dump pressure.

People point to Monero because its actually used in external markets.

Zcash cannot be used because it can’t even hold its value. Any new entrant looks at the historical chart and moves on to Monero. The downward spiral, as mentioned above, is due to the way Zcash operates and devalues its own asset.

Privacy is becoming a bigger and bigger topic and Zcash needs to be in the conversation. However, it will never be part of the conversation if you have block rewards going to hardcoded addresses at the protocol level that will dump on you.

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This is the money (no pun intended) quote.

You can have a thousand Zcash medias attempting to educate people on le epic ZK tech but charts don’t lie. It I see something that has a trajectory that edges asymptomatically towards zero, I’m going to X out of that chart faster than the Zcash media “team” can dump their generously gifted tokens.

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Block reward ZEC have been inadvertently designed to work as a USD short. The results speak for themselves. What do I mean? USD short

  1. Org denominates salaries/ grants in USD
  2. Hedges (sells) block reward ZEC at point in time X, to acquire USD to cover liability
  3. Org waits for duration of time Y, then un-hedges back to ZEC/ pays USD denominated liability in ZEC

If ZEC drops during the time duration Y, org has effectively gamed Zcash buy selling high and buying low.

If ZEC increases, org isn’t forced to buy back higher - instead their newly acquired (or excess) ZEC from duration Y can be paid to the USD liability. The higher that ZEC might have moved, the easier it is to pay the USD liability. Buying back ZEC higher is the point of last resort.

When the Org buys back/ un-hedges on marginal increases or decreases, there is little impact to Zcash markets.

This all goes without even talking about ZEC as a Bitcoin short. We can thank the ASIC PoW mega miners for that market disposition.

Short the USD has been a slowly losing battle since Zcash was launched:
image

This is possible, but the opposite could be true also. Protocol encoded development teams is part of the unspoken “I Agree” terms of service for any ZEC buyer/ holder

The assertion here is that some degree of indiscriminate project team funding is good because it assures that Zcash always has a baseline of human capital who are working to grow/ improve/ build/ plan for the future.

Without a Dev Fund, Zcash risks a more severe human capital loss than what it just experienced in the past couple years of the bear market.

As mentioned ZKP is a growing crypto sector theme, so we’ve got to acknowledge the risk that other projects wouldn’t mind (they would probably be happy) poaching Zcash protocol engineers to begin working on their competitor projects.

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It certainly was not at launch and in initial years, where devtax was claimed to being limited to 10% (20% of first 4 years of supply). Giving up on that claim meant that no limit on devtax (or antipoachingtax) would ever be taken seriously.

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Privacy is extremely niche in general, only dark market participants use it currently, I reckon that’s like less than 0.1% of crypto users now especially since other markets like NFTs, Defi, L2s etc are offering much more fun, opportunities, and higher yield. Meanwhile there’s not much you can do with ZCash, you just hold it, can’t even stake it? Payments? Let’s be honest, no one wants to use ZCash or any niche crypto for IRL payments, that’s a hopeful dream from 2016s era. Fiat/Credit cards is better, and with the current trend I predict stablecoins on a superfast L1 or ethereum L2 will take over that market.

Also, the majority of users are already satisfied with the level of privacy public blockchains can provide. For example if I create a new wallet on ethereum and deposit some eth into it via centralized exchange, and then perform some trasactions, no one aside from the exchange has the ability identify who I am, and that’s only if they decide to investigate my wallet for some reason, as long as I am not doing anything illegal, I don’t see why they would do so either. If I wanted further privacy, I can try out protocols like Tornado cash.

So basically there’s no compelling reason to use ZCash, and the market recognizes this hence no one is buying, and price is low.

Imo, best chance for ZCash to stay relevant is to become Ethereum rollup, focused on privacy.

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I believe in Zcash, I hope that one day it will see a good appreciation.

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That dream for utility I heard from 2020… 99% from tokens have no utility, Zec team is working something always, this get to furure some kind of hope or mystery you never know, but ok how time past chanches are smaller…
Crypto is only speculative and hype thing…sure Zec has more utility and better tehnology than big procent coins.In crypto nothing stay 99.5 % down like Zec now. something will blow price up only you have to wait and forget a period.
Here is problen no hype, no marketing and you have a lot od ways to make Zec utility but for now all is standby. Also some big fish is shorting Dino and privacy coins till death, and we have some selling up is better explained…also enormous FUD and hate… that always come the other side in crypto…pricr bottom. We need only patient, in alt bull run price for no reason go x3 minimum…

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this means that the foundation is trading ZEC, do you believe that or have proof that they are doing this?

trading ZEC with their knowledge it should/could be seen as insider trading. i don’t think that they would take that risk.

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False. Have you explored other ecosystem such as Ethereum and its L2s? It’s thriving quite well tbh, with plenty of dapps and tokens that have utiltiy. Meme coins are the only exception, but having no utility is part of their sales pitch. No utility is better than failed attempts at utility, and price reflects this quite well.

Marketing is not the issue either, everyone knows about ZCash and even Vitalik used to frequently tweet about ZCash. Hype is built on narratives, and unfortunately privacy is a very weak narrative now. Everything else is just pure hopium.

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We might think of it as trading, but it from their perspective is a means of risk management/ hedging their assets into a crypto long position (but not solely long ZEC).

The proof is in their transparency reports, you can see that the BTC balance has fluctuated between around 60-70 BTC for a very long time. Calling it trading is a bit hyperbole because their rebalancing doesn’t happen frequently.

Insider Trading? Yes, I think there is some risk of regulators slapping on that citation; but the flipside gets back to the former point. The ZEC-BTC position management that they do is what they consider risk-management of the balance sheet.

Personally speaking, I think theres a 0% chance that they’re doing anything thats effectively insider trading. To really be guilty of that there would need to be a larger and more distinct element of sizing and a correlating headline/ news event in the Zcash project.

The utility is NGU Number Go Up. That is a utility still unexplored in the ZEC world :expressionless:

100% - Zcash either needs to build itself a new/ alternative narrative, or else we’re stuck praying that eventually some day privacy becomes the hot topic.

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Disagree with this, privacy narrative is stronger than ever and becoming more important by the day. The next 2 years are probably the most crucial in ZECs history in terms of price appreciation imo.

Key sub narratives for zcash are the halving, reformed dev fund, defi inoperability, hardware wallet functionality etc. NGU is now or never imo

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Hi @Jovan , I found your approach to investing during times of fear and pessimism in the crypto market very interesting. Could you give me a more detailed and personal analysis of Zcash? I’d like to understand your perspective better and how you see the potential of this coin in the future.

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Something you people might be interested in:

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Name one privacy-focused coin that has outperformed majors this cycle.

As I pointed out in my previous post, public blockchains already offer a level of privacy that the mass majority are satisfied with.

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i do think same that people think public blockchains offer some level of privacy.

but they dont see how much metadata there actually is that makes it super easy to connect ur identity to ur addresses in 99% of cases imo. tools for it are just not yet super popular and available, but soon enough will be maybe.

and that is where everyone will want to step up their privacy a bit.