Difficulty chart so far

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The current 6.7 M Sol/s is increasing 50% per 3 days. At end of the ramp in about 25 days at 10 ZEC/block and 576 block/day, that gives me 0.08 ZEC per day with 1000 Sol/s. That's about half the ZEC per Sol rate we're getting today. If efficiency remains 150 W for 50 Sol/s, then electrical costs will be $135 per ZEC at $0.15 per kWh. If efficiency improves for everyone then it does not make a difference as the Sol/s for the network will also increase. So $1000 per ZEC at this point seems right if miners are expecting a gross of 7x electrical costs a month from now. At that point our hardware costs could be recouped. Then begins the point at which $135 per ZEC is a hard floor on ZEC price if miners refuse to lose money while low-electrical-cost miners continue to make a profit. How much people want the coin more than miners can produce will be the ceiling, but competition will still make it a losing battle for small miners like me. The price rose so high because the big miners were caught off guard by unexpected demand. I hope that continues, making big miners underestimate the demand and constantly lag in investment.

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So basically if my electricity, and internet is free, then I could get my money invested in the equipment real fast, right? :wink:

Well at $1000 per ZEC your electricity and equipment should be paid off in 40 days.

nice, my electricity is also free, so I think I could earn back within a week. Neat.
Academia network FTW.

I'm going to tell your boss, haha. You're upping the institution's electricity bill, about 30 W per CPU if the alternative was them sitting idle.

Ethereum difficultly dropped about 40% over the same time

Looks like BOTNETS are mining from certain hours.

I'm making too much money. If the difficulty stays the same or drops, it will have to be because the price dropped below $10 per ZEC (that's my electrical costs to get 1 ZEC when it ramps to 10 ZEC per block, and if the difficulty aka network hash rate stays the same from here). If I'm breaking even in 25 days, and the price is $100 per ZEC then the difficulty will be 10x higher. That appears to be where things are headed: $100 per ZEC. So maybe the futures market before it began was not far off in saying $50 per ZEC.

I'm not sure I follow your calculation.

If I understand, your main assumption is:
Hash rate is going to rise 50% per every 3 days until 01.12, and then remain flat (starting figure is 6.5M sol/s)

So by 01.12 this wil be (27 days until 01.12, so 9 cycles of 50% raise): 6.5 + 9*6.5/2 = 35.75M. Dreadfully pessimistic, but I unfortunately tend to agree on this estimate.

5760 ZECs are issued daily after 01.12. So earnings in ZEC per day, with 1000sol/s (=0.001 Msol/s) miner are then:

5760 ZEC/day * .001/35.75 = .16 ZEC / day that's twice as much as you get. Did I get something wrong?

Then you move to calculate ZEC's "fair value" (price@mining-brake-even) in $. I'm not able to recreate price figure.

From previous calculation it follows that you need roughly 6days to earn 1ZEC (.16*6=.96 ~ 1ZEC).

Fair price would be this: M * E * T

T - interval in days to earn one zec in [days/ZEC]
E - electricity cost [$/kWh]
M - miner efficiency, how much kWh miner wastes per day [kWh / day]

So result is in [$/ZEC]

In your case this should be: 24*3 kWh/day * .15 $/kWh * 6 days/ZEC = 64.8 $/ ZEC

What am I doing wrong ?

I'll be more careful and explicit: First a mistake I made: I used 6 cycles of 50% increase instead of 9 because I thought 24 divided by 3 was 6 instead of 8. doh. Since there are 9 sets of 3 days to reach 10 ZEC/block, we should use today's 6.7 M Sol/s x 1.50^9 = 257 M Sol/s when there are 5760 ZEC/day. So my share 27 days from now would be 5760 x 700 Sol/s / 257,000,000 = 0.0157 ZEC per day. It costs me $11 per day for the 3kW x 24 x 0.15. So $11 / 0.0157 = $687 for me to break even 27 days from now. So wild price estimate is $687.

To say it another way: don't coins quickly migrate to where the small miner breaks even? Since miners are now joining and leaving coins so easily, it's an efficient market, so it appears that it does not matter what the demand for the coin is, nor how many miners there are, nor how efficient the algorithm is. The small miner breaks even and the big miners profit ~40% of the small miner's electricity cost. So, with this wild math, I get $687 per ZEC in 27 days and big miners profiting $300 per ZEC and a blood bath on equipment costs waiting on us small miners (we need 90 days like today to recoup equipment cost). But by the current trend, we have only 27 more days at less than 1/2 this.

So the trend says we will recoup only $1 for every $6 we spend.

Small miners profit when the big guys continually underestimate the demand for the coin, which could happen here if small miners want to keep this special coin or if the CIA decides it needs to send money to the KGB or ISIS. Or if ISIS wants trump to be president without lettnig it be known they gave him campaign contributions. Actually, that's the CIA's M.O. Now the CIA can influence foreign elections more easily.

Zcash hides who's pulling the strings. Elections and weapons are a big deal, so I'm not selling it at any price.

Yes, I'm sorry.. Thinking simultaneously on too many things, and I made a childish mistake not compounding the hash rate increase. Isn't 250M, a bit too much? That implies ~6.2 milion GPUs, right (say 40sol/s each)? Whole ETH network has like ~400k.

Thanks, that's good info and re-assuring.

ZEC price will continue to slip down as more coins hit the market..

But if they were only 40 Sol/s then there are 167,000 GPUs on Zcash already, half of ETH in a few more days. Maybe 150 Sol/s per GPU is already the standard on private miners.

Difficulty has doubled in 3 days. 4 more doublings (12 days?), and it's going to be a blood bath for anyone getting only 50 Sol/s per 150 watt GPU if the price per ZEC does not stay over $150. My net ZEC is going up, but the net value is going down. The more I mine and hold, the more I lose. Current trend is that no ZEC holder's electrical costs will be reimbursed in a few days. If individual CPUs keep adding on, even big miners won't be able to turn a profit (if CPU's can do half as good as the expected Claymore GPU miner). 200,00 individuals with new laptops and desktops running over 40 Sol/s seems possible.

What are you talking about? Currently its almost 3x as profitable as it was mining ETH last week.

I'm saying if hash rate doubles again and price gets cut in half again, it'll be better to switch back to ETH.

Most likely ETH = ZCASH profitability eventually. We all knew this would happen.

At least the difficulty will be slightly lower since there is more Miners revenue from ZEC

Actually, I didn't realize the profitability could be equal. But if individual's with laptops and desktops keep adding on without any concern for electricity costs, all the new and excess GPUs working on ZC will need to switch to ETH, hurting ETH profitablilty. So CPUs working on ZC could hurt ETH mining for a time. 200,000 desktops will be 5 M Sol/s from CPUs (if they do not get a claymore-like improvement).