Price Speculation

1 month later we are at 0.0046 BTC.

Once we reach 0.0045 it’s time for the next prediction…

There is no market structure in the ZEC/BTC markets, extremely hard to predict where price goes. Only volume will indicate trend reversals.

Both BTC and XMR lost 94% of their value during the high inflation phase. BTC bottomed out about a year before halving. We will see if this is the same for ZEC. I want to see negative correlation between BTC and ALTS before calling bottom.

Also when I daytraded ZEC I was far more sucesfull doing TA on total market cap chart rather price it helps filter out the inflation noise.

market is near point of another great reshuffle and another cycle iteration. too much technical debt with all the batshit valuation that was accumulated since 2017. imagine bsv not going straight to zero after csw lost in court. imagine most of altcoins despite different nature, presumable usecase, founders and business model are acting almost the same since 2018. imho, forfeit ta, withdraw from exchanges that are highly exposed to legal risks, nevermind minor ones, and fasten your seatbelts.)

I have a different approach on this. I can see where your argumentation is coming from but my approach is different for several reasons and if you don’t mind i will explain them in short why i personally think the major meassurement for now is the BTC/ZEC pair and price.

  • The highest volume is created within BTC/ZEC only a minority of volume is USD/ZEC. If we take an analogy would it make sense to take the GBR value for Gold or Oil if 99% of the oil or gold market is traded in US$? I doubt. Hence i base my personal calculations and predictions on BTC and not ZEC as long as this is the biggest trading pair.

  • The biggest problem i have with US$ and why i see it even more unpredictable than BTC is that ZEC isn’t performing independant versus the US$. It’s following in general the BTC value in BTC/US$. That’s absolutly unfortunate and it shouldn’t be like that, but as a fact it’s like this. There are only a very few movements that ZEC makes without BTC in the US$ pair. IF BTC goes tomorrow to $20k ZEC would follow immediatly to at least 125 without any own efford just by following it. There is no logic that in ZEC/US for now after it’s anway dictated by the BTC/US$ in 99% of the cases and movements.

  • BTC news impact ZEC more than US$ news impact ZEC. Be it negative or positive the BTC news have way more impact towards ZEC than the US$ news have.

  • Unreliable historical information. Due the above arguments the historical information and indicators used are again based more on BTC movement than on ZEC’s own movement, hence why i personally call these more unreliable and worse to predict than BTC/ZEC movements. Sure, you see that there might be an uptrend by the technical indicators but what you actually see as an uptrend/downtrend in the USD/ZEC technical analysis is a mirror of BTC/US$ analysis or in other words, till today ZEC has no independed US$ market movement. Or in short, what you think is a ZEC/US$ analysis is just a BTC/US$ in 99% of the cases.

  • As the biggest market is BTC it makes the most sense just to use BTC as an alternative as for example do all banks worldwide when you make a savings depost for example. You can make it in your countries nation fiat, in US$ or in many countries as a GBR or EURO. It’s logical to check which of them is the safest. I guess (didn’t check but i’am pretty sure) that worldwide the most amounts in deposits are hold in US$, same goes for crypto where the largest amounts are hold in BTC. I’am especially referring to this as it’s no different than in the banking sector what we see in crypto, no matter most of use would prefer not to see it that way.

  • There are way more details i could post why i think the BTC/ZEC market is way more important and even more predictable at this time but i would need 2 more hours to write it, which i don’t have right now, hence only some major points.

That’s why i personally see, for someone that has a indeed big amount of money invested in crypto, the BTC/ZEC market seems more predictable, reliable and more important than any other ZEC market. As said, it’s unfortunate and i’am not happy with the BTC situation either, but the only thing until this changes hopefully some day is to adopt meanwhile and trying to get the best out.

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I’m not really understanding your analogy. Yes, oil trade globally is settled in dollars, and there are gold markets…but FOREX pairs also include other underlying pairs (XAU/ERO, XAG/JPY) and we can analyze these markets for insight to whats happening these economies. Your view is heavily BTC centric, id argue you might be a bitcoin maximalist.

The only real economic activity i see happening with ZEC is speculation and paying employees. Maybe someone can correct me, but i think the ECC is selling ZEC for USD to pay employees as most of them operate in the US. Knowing this, i think that the USD pairing is important. The force (aka my tin-foil hat) tells me there must be some sort of managed USD market activity because of the institutional interest involved with zcash,

Yes, perhaps this is just a paradigm we are in. There was a time where AOL, Netscape, and Yahoo dominated the internet(and market share) in the early 90s. The market largely is stupid. Even though i personally dont like him, you cant ignore legendary investors like Warren Buffet calling BTC “rat poison”. I dont think the market knows any better but to follow BTC. The legacy crypto market was built on BTC pairs.

Firms involved in crypto are largely yeild chasing and they’re in the business of dealing with crypto volatility. BTC dominates the market because it came first. I’m not sure if this is sustainable or relevant to analyze the entire cryptosphere. The dollar is king, almost every person on planet earth is affected by its existence. We are all hoping/rooting for the return of people money (aka non government money) and dollars are spent on research and development to create our dreams of private, democratic money.

cex.io delisting too

Both ZEC and DASH, it would seem that UK will be banning privacy coins.
Unless CEX.IO has changed banking to the same bank as Coinbase UK and were issued with same demands. Then it might not be a UK government issue.

It would seem that CEX.IO is doing its banking through Clear Junction Ltd. Incorporated in the UK. This is an EMI.

The international SWIFT GPB wires arereceived through BANK ALPINUM Liechtenstein.

Since Coinbase UK is doing its banking through an entity called Clear.bank it is possible that both the EMI and the bank are owned by the same entity which could mean that this is indeed a banking issue rather then problems with the UK government.

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Hi Folks,

Was doing some thinking. I’m all for accumulating ZEC, but I truly think the next bull market we need to make people aware of the tech as well as holders of the coin. I am considered an indigent individual but still been chipping at the coin on dips. Unfortunately on the 40’s dip I haven’t accumulated because of personal finance reasons. I think there may be one more leg lower before the rally but I’m just an ordinary Joe.(so I’m not giving investment advice) Reason I’m bringing this topic up is, when we rally, we should rally hard. We have a low float, so let’s use it to our advantage. Once the price rise people will jump on our bandwagon, and that’s when we can remind them about the privacy tech and keep pushing it. It’s my belief if we don’t do this, the coin will fail or allow another privacy coin to over take the spotlight. I also think ECC and the Foundation needs it to also advance us as a whole and keep Zooko and others motivation alive. If it doesn’t they will start to feel like, let’s get the cash and run, even perhaps start a new coin. I’ve been telling people to buy Bitcoin, because I know where I’m from most people just want to make a quick buck, and where I tell them to buy, Bitcoin been able to offer that. I haven’t told them to buy Zcash, 1 because not every1 can HODL like me and I don’t want the coin to be pushed lower by them, nor do I want them to loose money. I know that will turn people away from the tech. I’ve informed people of Zcash but haven’t told them to buy it, same go for Ethereum Classic. With that said, when we start to look bullish, which I think is just around the corner. Maybe Zcash company can start a marking campaign with current holders to promote the coin with flyer information, kinda like selling girl scout cookies. Alot of great company’s started by going door to door. I would be happy to participate. Best advertisement is by word of mouth! The Coinbase earn was nice but we need to draw people in that are not yet invested in crypto and Coinbase earn can’t help with that to much. If anyone wants to contact me directly, I can be reached at [richiewise91@gmail.com] P.S. ENJOY LIFE FOLKS

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0.0044 Btc, go go go to 0.0035

First news about Zcash in media for a long time is about financial losses and new dev fund (coindesk). On Forklog (RU language news site) the same article with 3 comments and all of them negative.
And I just want to ask is the biggest focus you need now is really protocol development?

What in your opinion should we focus on?

I have put a facts and a question, not answer. And what do you think?

Did you invest in the new asics to mine in Siberia?

0.00429 BTC. It’s the first time we are below 0.0043 BTC …

I take any bet that we reach 0.0035 - 0.00375 BTC until end of the year.

There is a good chance that we will fall behind Dogecoin by Marketcap at some time, as well quiet an achievement if this happens, lol. Maybe a rebrand to ZebraCash to compete with Dogecoin, lol?

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Nah 0.0035 and only through escrow.

Whatever you want for 0.0035 - 0.00375 BTC, i’am ok with everything from $1 - $10k …

Are you ook with escrow? I mean we wont bet 10k Im thinking a friendly bet of 1 zec?

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true playa.)
in near term any bad ratio is possible.

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Whatever you want, i’am not betting for money, i’am betting for thrill, hence i offered even the $1 option.
1 ZEC is totally ok, it doesn’t have to be a big amount even i’am fine with one too as i’am 100% sure i will win.