This ‘could be’ short/mid term bottom. But in long term, bear market is likely to extend at least to next year. At the moment we’re due for another disbelief rally, before whole market enter a slow bleed phase. BTC bottom could be anywhere between 2-5k, and for ZEC <$50 is possible.
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Yes, but what I am saying is cryptos are closed loops whereas fiat is not. Even with the taxation of the exchanges and the transaction fees, the crypto is not destroyed paying off unsustainable debt. More on that below… The exchanges must sell the skimmed fees (tax) back into the loop to profit from it. Again, only x amount of crypto is created therefore it is a closed loop. Also, the transaction fees for any cryptos did not face the same issues as bitcoin. When Bitcoin fees were $30, ethereum fees were under $0.10/transaction. Lictecoine was maybe $0.15 regardless if you were moving $5 or $5 million. Not bad… And I could be wrong, but those fees go back into the systems paying the miners no? If not the miners then I am curious where they go and what causes them to fluctuate.
The reason fiat is not a closed loop system is how money is created. This is true for all countries with a central bank under the BIS network. When a country needs currency they borrow it from the central bank. To do this they create debt. In the USA it is call T Bills or fancy pieces of paper with numerical values on them. The government then ships the T Bills to the central bank where they store them somewhere and then in exchange print more fancy pieces of paper with corresponding values on them. Whalla! Money has been created out of debt. But here is the kicker - because the central bank charges interest on the borrowed money, there is always more owed then there is to pay it back. For example, the government borrows $1 million and the central bank loads it to them for 0.5% interest. On day one the government owes $1 million + $50k interest, but there is only $1 million in circulation to pay back the loan. Where does the other $50k come from? Believe it or not, the government then has to borrow the $50k + interest to pay back the first loan in full. But this doesn’t help because now a new loan is created and there will ALWAYS be less circulating then there is owed in debt. It creates a mathematical cycle which can never be paid back. The only way to keep the system going is to continually borrow more and more money to keep the “water flowing through the fish tank”. This is why the debt ceiling must be raised over and over. Eventually, the Ponzi scheme falls apart.
With crypto it is a closed loop because the currency is not being destroyed paying off unpayable debt via taxes, and more cannot be created. This means the value must go up with the value of the total economy (actual goods and services created by people).
However, it is speculative right now because I cannot walk into Walmart and buy a loaf of bread with ethereum. IMO, it is a matter of time someone breaks ranks and starts accepting crypto as a currency. It would likely be a digital service at first because if the market swings it is not like you lost a bunch of money due to manufacturing costs. It would need to be a big company like amazon although amazon is likely part of the cartel. I am in the international trade and a buyer in Haiti asked me if I would take bitcoin and I laughed saying that within an hour of payment I might be rich or broke. He didn’t laugh.
I would accept crypto for international trade if the market was more stable and there was little risk for my members. However, countries with currency issues are already using crypto and it will grow from there. Just look at the number of transactions on the networks now and for how much is being transacted. Remember: 100% of all fiat currencies die because they are mathematically designed to do so. When they die a new currency has to be created to replace the old one. Crypto is already in place to be that new currency and one without outside manipulation. I can go on and on on this topic.
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Well if that happens there won’t be many people mining and the networks may unravel. It’s possible there could be some 51% attacks at that point.
Price doesn’t matter for 51% attack. Flypool has been maintaining >50% hash rate since eternity. I don’t think this community care about mining decentralization, which is sad. Miners are greedy and stupid, they just totally ignore security of network. POW provide better security than POS by design, but I started thinking seriously about POS now, it could totally be future.
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Most of the network hashrate is controlled by just a handful miners, who, yes, probably dont really care
You’re right that most cryptos have a fixed inflation ( emission rate) and an end date to it. But we early adopters are still experiencing that very strongly right now. Most every crypto that is PoW is this way.
Well it doesn’t seem that the founders care about decentralization. That sets the tone for the community. If someone would develop a P2P mining system and the founders stress decentralization I imagine it would take off. A lower price makes it easier for an attack to be pulled off especially by bad actors as they need less hash power to make it happen. Flypool is making so much money that they don’t have any incentive to perform a 51% attack.
Ultimately it is the standard of living that is important. Japan has almost ten times debt to GDP of Uganda but where would you rather like to live/work?
I think the underlying issue with FIAT is that it’s just an illusion. It’s not a system that’s purely designed to fail from the start based on the math, although the odds of it truly succeeding are slim, if run perfectly well, I’m pretty sure it would work (but that’s unrealistic, and yet to be seen in my opinion). With your 1M example, the money comes back in via taxes, or loaning that money back out at a higher interest rate (same reason businesses with cash take loans, they know they can make more with the money than it costs them to borrow it). I 100% agree that the cardhouse will come tumbling down, but I think we are a ways from that happening (anyone’s guess, but mine is 10 years at the earliest, since a huge number of people blindly follow those in power). I personally think that might end up being a good thing as well, since it will give crypto a chance to be truly scalable enough to support the full economy.
During peak transaction fee times, ethereum was in the dollars range as well (due to scalability issues), where Litecoin and Zcash stayed fast and cheap. (You could have paid a small fee, but it would have been days before your ETH transaction was processed)
In all honesty, aside from the fact mining profits have dipped a ton, I’m welcoming the dip. A lot of the coins I like are finally starting to reach price points where I’ll definitely be trying to buy again (last time I actually bought Zcash was at $40 something, and bitcoin was around 1000).
I wouldn’t be surprised to see some of the coins continue to fall for a while, but I’m doubting that we will see prices as low as this time last year again, too many additional people in the crypto space for that to happen (without massive price supression).
just take the huge gold quarries. what people need to do to be able to get gold. huge holes are made and to transport the gold out of those quarries they use 2 floor house high trucks(not only one), which are swallowing 480L/h all day long. can someone estemate how much mining with rigs polluts and how much one of those trucks is polluting? I guess not…
we will see soon how the monero price overcomes zcash … will it happen in few hours… max days
I doubt that will ever happen
It is just matter of time before Monero taking over Zcash price. Monero had its first 3-4 years with very high inflation. Now Monero starts to enjoy low inflation, mean while for Zcash this number is still super high.
disagree… four months into 2018, and zcash still hasn’t had any news. when you think about it, zcash hasn’t really had any large announcements in it’s lifetime. when we do start getting some news/announcements; things will change very fast.
anybody selling at these levels will hate themselves by year’s end.
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Zcash has “news” and “announcements” quite frequently. In fact this is one of most hyped crypto. You think JP Morgan Chase “news” wasn’t big enough?
News can only pump or dump price in short terms. In long terms, inflation rate is most influencing factor. You might want to take a look at Bitcoin all time chart. It isn’t a coincidence that each “halvening” event always trigger new long term bull trend.
j.p. morgan news means nothing for zcash network
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It doesn’t, but the hype it brought was massive. Price doubled within a day.
when we get some real announcements zcash will moon like no other. we hit +$900 on 0 news… we’re in 3rd wave accumulation…
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What kind of news you’re dreaming of?
Once again, news can only affect price for short terms. In long term inflation dominates. For example, the only reason Dash can maintain such stupidly high price, despite shitty tech, is super low inflation rate.