Price Speculation

67.25 / 11775 = 0.0057 :frowning:

Увидел русский флэш-моб и решил присоединиться. Тоже напишу какую-нибудь фигню.

0.005 What are we waiting for, where is the growth?

thrown some more btc in zcash, waiting for other alts to reach my bids. either way its near max pain or straight to oblivion.

$ZEC is now officially bellow 0.005 BTC, I want to congratulate all the holders, Zcash foundation and especially to Zooko and ECC for making this happen :rofl:

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Я плачу, это просто жесть :sob:

zcash holds well in the top 30 coins on cmc, gives a chance to stay in the top 50 by the end of the year.
By the end of the month we will protect $ 45, I think.

zcash holds very well. Will be in top 100 coins list by the end of the year. May be even in top 200! if things go like now

nothing holds well against btc now. except maybe completely in-house assets or new scams. they are partially played on btc field. everything that is played on btc field is being aggressively suppressed by bitcoin agenda. now its all about compound narrative effect. cartel-friendly coins like ltc and xmr are being mocked less. others are being hit hard. i’m still uncertain how this all will be played off, will bitcoin leave any room for alts, or its like amazon that cannibalizes retail to full extent, because it can. time will tell. anyway, altsaredead is only one of possible scenarios. if you like zcash and not overinvested - dont give up. just cut off media buzz. otherwise - anytime its ok to consider to cut losses.

Euuwww… smells like bears in here.

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Why shouldn’t it be?
Zcash future is at it’s most uncertain level ever and zec is bleeding out more than most top 100(strictly price speculation).
ECC can’t make any promise on actual development and are playing the silence game.
Look on twitter, reddit or youtube and 90% of discussion about zcash is not positive.
The once praise funding scheme is now considered the most pathethic. Community has no word in anything, ZIP’s are too complex are overall must be greenlighted by ECC. Let’s not talk about the latest updates (air filled with air) and trademark issues.

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Just to make it clear, i didn’t hack johnwisdoms forum account, lol.

About 9 months ago i raised the question if it wasn’t maybe better to change (lower) the emission rate of Zcash to decrease the inflaction rate and at least give more price stability and that way adopt to the low demand instead of pushing daily new ZEC into a market that hasn’t that much demand.

I still think the totally wrong choosen emission rate by design, not only for ZEC but most others as well, are a pain for everybody and are doomed to fail in 95+% of the cases, the other 5% just have a hard time keeping up especially with BTC.

The main problem with the emission rates of most coins is that it literally forces people to BTC IF they don’t want to lose money. The exact reason 8-9 months ago i sold all my ZEC and most into BTC, just not to lose money and to bet on the safe horse, no matter i dislike BTC and can’t find anything appealing there, but financial decisions are financial decisions. Can someone make money with ZEC meanwhile? Sure, even in a bearish and highly volatile market there are always option IF this is your main job, but it’s still questionable IF investing meanwhile or just holding BTC and doing nothing would be even the more profitable path, leave alone the safe and sleep-better factor.

In my opinin in such situations, where it’s clear that there is not enough demand for the daily emission rate it would make more than sense to change it somehow to ensure at least the own Zcash funding by keeping a higher price for ZEC.

The next logical way path would have been some kind of POS design, maybe hybrid as an alternative to give people incentive to buy ZEC, to hold ZEC and helping that way to increase demand and lower willling to sell supply. While most miners than back blocked my idea which i totally understand after they made an investment into asics, fair enough. But than again, with these prices miners in normal countries won’t mine to long either and mining activity is just shifted to china leaving them neither with POS nor with mining but with some ZEC that are daily worth less and less. Selfish ideas or incentive rarely pays out for longer in my opinion.

Let’s be honest, half of the rest here is counting the days for the halving in hope it will solve the price problem, unfortunatly it will not with such low demand if no miracle happens meanwhile. I’am a pure atheist and don’t believe in miracles, lol. So what’s left for the next years? That’s exactly where my bearish all over view comes from, simple mathematics. Daily more supply with daily less demand in generally with a daily getting stronger BTC as the best alternative for not losing money. Again, nearly all projects drive and force literally people into BTC just to make things even worse for the rest. It’s a spiral, caused by an unrealistic emission rate.

Just think about it. How long would Ford, Chevy, Mercedes and all other survive in a normal economy IF they produce daily 10,000 cars but only 5,000 get sold, day by day? It’s no rocket science that they have exactly 2 options: 1.) Lower the production and 2.) Give an incentive to the buyer, like low interest or interest free leasing/financing options to get them sold. Crypto isn’t much different to the laws of economy. IF someone was hoping that fundamental economy laws and mathematics have no place in crypto than he is either blind, too uneducated to follow simple mathematics and logic, too greedy to see the obvious or just that hardcore that it doesn’t matter. The later is ok, the bad thing is that only a handfull have this vision and option.

That’s not a rant by the way, it’s a reminder that most people here got hit hard by the obvious, by common logic and simple mathematics. The frustration that is increasing is understandable, but it’s just the place we had to get after it was clear that there is only a minimal chance that adoption for most projects will not increase as the supply of most coins is increasing. And yes, actually even other shitcoins matter for Zcash, as every failed shitcoin will force mostly people to BTC, further strengthen it’s position. It’s a spiral with only a few possible solutions in my opinion.

I personally still believe in Zcash tech and that’s why i’am still here, but there is no incentive to hold any ZEC at this time until a whole bunch of fundamental questions are solved and a solution found. Beginning from transparency and accountability and trust up to consensus related questions like funding, emission rate, consensus type and and and. Nothing is lost yet, but it doesn’t look to good either.

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sorry, but laws of supply/demand economics are not fully suitable for crypto. if at all.)) at least at current stage. i dont want to speculate on my personal opinion and assumptions how this market really works as long as i have no strong proofs to show. but just as a matter of obvious observations that can be googled down through archives of social media… lets take bitcoin. deflationary, first mover, reserve, benchmark, etc. despite all these aspects this winter almost nobody wanted to buy it @~3-4k price. nobody.
except diehard hodlers/zealots. people that have long term bets on btc/crypto. and people, who understood what drives this market nowadays and how blatantly it can be driven both directions. and that there was strong probability that it will be driven upwards again, because main beneficiary ventures/players are alive and no signs closure. now btc is 10k+ again, and suddenly its cool again, etc, etc. with respect to other beforementioned factors, main price drivers in this market are the still the ugliest ones.

Actually you absolutly confirm what i was saying.

ALL cryptos that have more supply than demand are driving/forcing soon or late people to BTC.

That’s exactly the outcome when people realize that the inflations and supply are too high to result in price stability, leave alone price increase, they go to the safe harbour BTC further strengthen it’s position. That’s exactly why you see now again 70+% of BTC dominance, that’s the outcome and the worst thing is that it’s a not soon ending spiral.

(of course there are some other factors as well but i’am talking about fundamental elementary mathematics here and not about some cases here and there)

They do, they are just here and there interruped for some time due pump & dump, FUD, FOMO, bad and good news. I could make endless examples on how a given action into supply & demand immediatly would show an outcome. To keep it basic and to avoid another long post just one elementary example.

What would happen, beginning by tomorrow, every day would be a halving to make an extreme example? This would cut extremely in a very short time the future supply chain. And to be clear, it still wouldn’t be garantee for higher prices actually, BUT at least it would leave the door open for every milestone, innovation, good news to result in higher demand, slowly but surely, in a longer price increasement compared to the todays short jump just to be eaten again by inflation and new emissions that are being released the next day.

As said, the economy laws are the very the same in crypto, enough you filter the artificial short term “manipulations” out. And your theory just supports mine.

And don’t get me wrong, i fully agree that there are pumps & dumps around, more than we all would like to see, that there is huge manipulation on many places, faked numbers and whatever not. I absolutly agree to that and that exactly this has an impact on price, i just argue that it’s artificially for a given time and as soon as it stops the common law of economy are again in place to regulate the price up or down responding to it’s real demand and supply.

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That’s how supply/demand works. Crypto is only different in terms of time compared to other trade-ables such as stocks, metals and currencies aka slow moving vs fast moving. What is the same is that in either people are driven by emotions mostly and are hesitant to buy when the prices are in their lows. The narrative is also supported by negative news and chatter which aims to drive the emotions even further to their extreme. The goal is to make the average Joe give to the pressure, forfeit and sell. And this is why we have weak and strong hands. And this goes on and on, until the balance shifts and weak hands are no longer in control of the shares and then we get a supply/demand reversal. After that the trend goes the other way and everything happens in a similar fashion and towards the other extreme.

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are we all forgetting the CRAZY yearly inflation of *44%? (0.12% Daily)

*Brave New Coin

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inflation rate is the same as bitcoin has/had. usd price of zcash is in the range that bitcoin had during same inflation. even lower. bitcoin was first mover and market is different now. but its also an order of magnitude bigger. if it will further/completely head towards derivative gamgling and pure marketing/scam token sales - not only zcash, but all the pow coins will be doomed, except bitcoin.

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I… wasn’t sure bitcoin had such an inflation rate.
First 3 years were very much like zcash, the next year it shrank noticeably.

What does the future hold inflation wise for zcash (after the coming halvening?)

there are the numbers for anyone wondering:

Year     #bitcoins       Inflation per annum
2009     1,624,250          -
--------------------------------------------------
2010     5,020,250        209.1%
2011     8,001,400         59.4%
2012    10,733,825         34.1%
2013    12,199,725         13.7%
2014    13,671,200         12.1%
--------------------------------------------------
2015    15,029,525          9.9%
2016    16,075,400          7.0%
2017    16,750,400          4.2%  (estimate)  
2018    17,425,400          4.0%  (estimate)  
2019    18,100,400          3.9%  (estimate)  
--------------------------------------------------
2020    18,575,200          2.6%  (estimate, halvening)
2021    18,912,700          1.8%  (estimate)
2022    19,250,200          1.8%  (estimate)
2023    19,587,700          1.8%  (estimate)
2024    19,806,350          1.1%  (estimate, halvening)
--------------------------------------------------
2025    19,975,100          0.9%  (estimate)
2026    20,143,850          0.8%  (estimate)
2026    20,312,600          0.8%  (estimate)

by design.) actually, zcash now in ~2012 of bitcoin age. it hadnt faced its first halving yet. inflation curves of both coins can’t be matched exactly because there’s different eras in mining tech, ect, but my point is in next year zcash inflation will decrease dramatically. its not a main concern long term wise.

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Halving priced in, no impact?

We found no evidence that cryptocurrency assets experiencing a halving event outperform the broader market in the months leading up to and following a reduction in miner rewards.

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