So hypothetically if your target of 0.00365 was not met by the end of the year you would invalidate your data and do a different analysis?
I made a logical error here and Im too tired to think and correct it, have been up all night
of course not. analysis is about probabilities. its not about right or wrong.
have to go to sleep. poor wording again.)
yes, absolutly. In best case i would wait maybe some more 1- 3 weeks if the trend goes into that direction.
Than i would analyse what factors caused the invalidation. If it’s for example something out of calculation that caused it, for example fictionally BTC got attacked and 100,000,000 BTC have been created than it’s something no prediction and calculation can predict. IF nothing major happened and i’am totally wrong than my whole formula/calculation has a major flaw which would lead to a total revision of it.
As explained above. IF no major thing happen at either side, BTC or ZEC, positive or negative, than the prediction should be close. But IF it’s way off than as said above allready, i would invalidate my current approach, revision it and search which factor that is included lead to a way off prediction and of course try to correct, improve and enhance the formula. Actually one of the reasons i share the predictions way upfront here.
Here you go, even adding some more general stats to overview and check how these analysis work out in time:
ZEC/USD today:
ZEC/USD historical price chart:
ZEC/USD Technical Analysis with 1 hour, 1 day, 1 week and 1 month:
ZEC/USD candlestick patterns:
FIAT Indices with 1 hour, 5 hours, 1 day and 1 week:
Disclaimer as someone can see these as financial advise. These charts, graphs and charts are only for educational use. I’am not giving ever any financial advice, just sharing my own approach and how i analyse exchange rates, patterns and such!!
lurking a bit thru history of some topics in this forum, i think you deserve an mvp tag and 1% of rewards.) curious, why you still have an interest in zcash, despite team listened, but looks like never reacted on your advices and expanded research that you persisted to do for such a long time. and time told that you was often right.
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I often thought about why never nobody listened to more or less obvious things, problems, solutions, whatever.
I think there are 3 major problems involved:
1.) The ECC and ZF have both teams that are paid to find solutions, analyse, have their own mind, have their own “high standards”, have their own view, have heir own everything. Additionally as i mentioned often, i personally think both entities are too technically focused, use a too technically language and i have the impression that only if something is really technicaly said, it might get their attention. I as well think this is maybe the reason why Zcash has not many followers at all. I have a hard time to follow and understand often newsletters, description of new features, whatever, what’s left for average joe and jane.
2.) More important, which i as well often mentioned, lack of community support. This might be due my direct style or bad non native English, i don’t know. But if nobody within the community supports an idea, view, thought, solution, whatever, than there is no indicator for the ECC and ZF to take it more serious.
As long as topics like the “too the moon” and the “price speculation” topics get way more attention than really serious topics that adress real life problems or future of Zcash than something is wrong with the community. At least in my opinion. If everybody cares only about price movements and markets and literally about nothing else than in my opinion it shows that they are not really interested in the product details but mainly only in profit. I’am not sure here, but i could imagine that in such cases, changes, even more unpopular changes, are seen more than a threat than a solution. I could be wrong here, it could as well be that many are not able to analyse logical or just have a different view.
3.) Tradition. It’s well possible that the Zcash teams, and even large parts of the community are too traditionally (for my taste) aligned. Sure, it uses large part of the BTC code, but does this mean it should be as close as BTC forever? In many arguments we see BTC is used as an example, but we simply aren’t BTC nor is the environment the same today compared to BTC’s first years, easy and simple as that.
I think the halvings are the best example for this.
Why i still have interest in Zcash and why i’am still here? Good question, lol. I was allready leaving once, but re-thought about it, that leaving is allways the easiest option. I admit the technical possibilities of the Zash teams, they are top notch in my opinion and only a view projects have such good engineering.
Here we say it will be either top or hop (hop in the meaning of fail) and i think this applies to Zcash as well. Either it will be a top project and coin or it will be just a total experimental fail and a new privacy coin that fixes all the flaws of Zcash will take some day Zcash and Moneros position. Until i see a chance that Zcash can be the privacy leader i think it’s worth to try to contribute, analyse and share my thoughts.
On the other side, being muted allready by several ECC devs including Zooko and others, some community members, i indeed ask myself if it’s worth, as being muted by the people that decide it’s more a small talk we and some others have here. Time will show, the dev fund outcome will play a huge role in my future plans if i continue to trust in ZEC, the ECC and the ZF or not.
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I read your posts! This forum would be boring with no critics.
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Many seem to prefer a boring forum than or prefer not being bothered with longer posts, critic or a different view or all (most) ECC guys wouldn’t mute forum contributors.
I think it’s naturally that someone has to ask himself if it makes sense to stay/support/post much IF the people it’s adressed leave the impression that they simply don’t won’t even hear about critics, flaws, suggestions, whatever…
One reason, and one big hope actually and why i moved my sentiment from the ECC towards the ZF is exactly your and the ZF’s more openess towards the community as a whole. This of course might be a purely subjective view. Anyway, thx for reading my posts and give them at least some attention 
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I support people’s right to mute anyone who annoys them 
You just don’t annoy me, or at least not more often than anyone else.
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Looks like an interesting article, very big and i didn’t have the time today to read it carefully but sharing it meanwhile:
THE END OF CASH: Investing in digital privacy and scarcity as a hedge against negative interest rates and Modern Monetary Theory.
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Great article. That’s something I was expecting to kick in sooner or later.
For instance I live in Sweden and for the last 5 years or so I saw a big change unfold in front of my very eyes. I read a scientific report a few months ago about card transactions and in that study they came to a conclusion that Sweden had more card transactions in 2018 than US, it’s mind-boggling. We can not buy any bus or train tickets with cash, we can’t pay the taxi with cash, we can’t even buy a cup of coffee in a coffeehouse with cash (yes, this happened to me a few months back), it’s beyond absurd. Now even the big grocery stores around the country are trying to force “credit/debit” paymet methods, only 1 out of 5 or so checkouts do take cash and even that is very limited. There are so many more examples I could write about, and all this was implemented in a span of a few years. The government are soon gonna have a total control over our money (input and output). Sweden is most likely the first country to go cashless and to me that’s frightening and that is one of the biggest reasons why I turned mostly to Zcash and other digital currencies. Based on this fact I can only see that we are still in the early stage of crypto, I bet that in the year 2020-2030 we will have a wide adaptation and the prices will stabilize as a result.
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Boxa, where do you get those awsome statistics?
interesting and dangerous part of that article:
Are We Bullish Or Bearish (as of November 2019)?
We are currently within a neutral trading condition for ZEC as of November 2019. For this market to be considered as bullish in the short term, we would need to see a break of ZEC above the $46 level. For this market to be considered as bullish over the longer term, we would need to see ZEC climbing higher above the $75 level.
If the sellers were to push ZEC beneath the support at the $33 level, the market would turn bearish and this could invalidate my 2020 price prediction. Support beneath $33 can be found at $30 and $28.22.
and $31 now!
go go go to 20!!!
And i bought again, waiting to get more under 30$🙂
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If only Als could be right about the price now! lololoo
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You are ready? Yes captain! Who lives at the bottom of the ocean? Our “zec flies to the moon”! Who has a flawed strategy? Have zec flies to the moon!
And we switched to a bear market, we are waiting for a sharp decline in prices, and not gradual as usual
We didnt switch to the bear market we are still in a bear market by definition. The local rise to 14k was a bull trap. It happened a year before the halving and has no precedent in history. If I could find my phone right now (2FA) I would be closing mt short position and buying ZEC. Unfortunately I think I lost it. I still think there is some meat on the bone and I still believe the weak hands are still in BTC. But I fear if we go to test the low of 3k we might witness the collapse of the entire market. And this is something I do not want so me closing my position has to do with my feelings and I unfortunately have no proper proof of BTC bottoming.
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