The only thing we have to figure out is will our peak be the halving pump or will the altcoin market drag us higher because ALTS realy started going insane after BTC ATH was breached and this was at the beginning of 2017 jan or feb this could mean that ZEC could run after the. retrace from the halving pump. Add four years to that and you get BTC ATH in jan 2021. So thats after the ZCASH halving. But we dont knowif 2017 will repeat. This decentralized finance has the potential to be bigger than the ICO buble and its actually something VERY useful to people in impoverished nations so finally I feel like were doing something good.
3 Likes
Zec has a problem, if he does not start running first, then the distribution of money to other coins will not allow him to increase the cost at all, therefore either the first for pumping or most likely without a pump, but the price will grow but not more than 150-250 dollars. So it was in the last pump, all the money settled on the eth and dash.
The new cryptocurrency bill coming to the US should be quite sufficient to keep ZCASH pumping nicely just from the migration from the coins that dont cut it. This is because the world regulation will follow US regulation and if you dont believe me you go to any country and there is only one qustion they ask about citizenship. :“Are you a US citizen” There is a reason for that but lets not get into geopolitics because I have to work today.
Then there is the first ZEC halving as you can see in Bitcoins case the supply distributed is most closely related to price. And at that point half of the ZEC supply will be distributed.
And if all that isnt enough we have that white swan event that everyone seems to be downplaying and that is solving layer one scaling through Halo. And to all that think this is nothing I will ask you does any other coin have ANYTHING similar?
For heavens sake LTC has no developers nothing is being done but announce some crap on twitter.
And all this during a cryptocurrency bull run?
I still dont think you see the big picture. The ATH of this cycle is supposed to be the bottom of the next cycle. Not the target of this cycle. Thats not growth.
1 Like
All the above options may not happen, I’m talking about this. The question of scaling is open, about Halo I can say that it may not happen in the next couple of years, there are no plans yet. At the same time, as you correctly noted about LTC, which is essentially no better than other coins, but look at capitalization, but this is money that could go into another project, but it didn’t go through that much money and then comes investment protection and new purchases At the same time, there can be as many good news for zec as possible and the price will be at the same level, and if there is no attractiveness in the PURCHASE then there will be nothing with the price in this case (no new heights).
The cryptoccurency bill has been submited it is happening.
The halving is happening.
The market will price in any positive news about the feasability of Halo before its implemented a few years later.
At the current stage, I think that for the price this will have a minimal impact, so if there is news from the category of buy now, tomorrow it will be late then yes, the price will fly up. Half brings an increase in price only when current purchases are enough to hold the price, and zec has almost no purchases, even if they now make half and 4 times less then this will have almost no effect, with the number of coins of 10 million it no longer plays any role .
The only news I consider integration with eth, which will have a positive impact on the price.
Wrong on all points show me how ZEC has almost no purchases? And what does that even mean?
very nice!
5 Likes
There are no purchases to maintain the price, perhaps the translator gives a different meaning.
The price of zec has not just been falling for 3.5 years, precisely because buyers do not hold sellers, and not because emissions are high. Say, if there were purchases, then the price was at any level, depending on purchases, and someone bought it and then sold at a loss, and so on, look at the amount of zec that generates income for customers, which is about 3%, while Bitcoin has an indicator of more than 90%, feel the difference.
Those 3.5 years were in a bear market. Look up comparative analysis thats what you do first. Do you really think you are doing better market research than all those custody services that included ZEC which is not free for them they have to invest resources in training their employees.
They make money from this, they don’t need the truth, they need finances 
No one guessed right, right?
Look I dont know how you dont understand this youre a smart guy. You cannot view the performance of the asset independently of what the entire market is doing. Thats what comparative analysis is in fact people who do that make the most money of all analysts its because it takes the most expereience (you have to have traded a long time to know this stuff in the traditional market its much slower than crypto)… This is because during bear markets people are exiting to FIAT. And you have noticed this yourself you remember all those people that posted in the past they all slowly one by one capitulated when their emotional and/or financial threshold was reached. This puts constant pressure on the sell side. As a trader in bear markets your goal is to acquire as much FIAT as possible, so you can try and cath the bottom and buy up as much coins as possible. News and development does not move the price unless its negative news which accelerates the sells… This is where our inflation matters. Thats why we performed so badly its because ZEC is in its high inflation stage. That and the fact that we werent around for the entire altcoin bull market in the last cycle.
In bull markets the game changes, FIAT is entering the market and your goal is to get as many coins as possible so you can try and catch the top and sell them as high as possible. After that you rinse and repeat.
What happens during bull markets is that interest on crypto jumps up and all coins start gaining value.some more than others news start moving. the price. AND most importantly the market prices in part of the work and development that has been going on during the bear market.
As proof I give you this.
Now that we have determined the altcoin bull and bear markets we can switch to the ZCASH chart.
Look what a surprise the peak matches almost perfectly. And what a surprise the volume is highest in the bull market. And I dont have a chart for this but trust me I verified the data myself thats where most addresses are openning and its also where most of the transactions are happening.
So to make any extrapolation of ZEC performance from how it behaved during the bear market is wrong. And fortunately real educated investors as well as institutional inverstors know this. The market is young and has a little trouble deducing true value. Trust me those institutions that all of you are counting on entering the market are quite capable of doing so. And they are not as impressed as you may think by them dank memes, coins that announce “partnerships” with mcdonalds every other week as well as projects uncapable of sustaining themselves and maintaining and building the chain during the bear market.
EDIT: I have nothing against dank memes in fact I quite enjoy the good ones.
5 Likes
Look at it this way Bitcoin sets the tune with its halvings and supply shock that comes after. All other coins dance to that tune. But each ALT has their own little dance like its own halving. In LTCs case its not the LTC halving that brings the value because its mostly during the bear market and the disbilief stage. In LTCs case its the rising tides lifts all ships case as the entire alt market pumps LTC pumps. Fortunately for us this is not so with ZEC. We get synergy with our halving and the supply shock of BTC.
This makes sense right? since Bitcoin dominance is so high it has most influence on the entire market so the total chart is influenced mostly by BTC movements… Look the chart is almost identical to bTC.
4 Likes
I’m not saying that you’re wrong, I’m just saying that there is more than 1 development scenario, you’re talking about the first and good for all buyers, I’m talking about the second, which will call into question the continued existence of the project, there are many more, and they all have right to development. There are no people who know something for sure, there are only who suggest. And once again, the high emission (issue) of a coin does not lead to high inflation (drop in value) directly, look at eth, which occupied half of Bitcoin’s capitalization during growth, and where is it now, and second, but not with such capitalization, but on bull market, but he absorbed so much money that he was able to move the market on his own. What will mean a decrease in emissions for zcash,
essentially nothing, the supply on the market is already sufficient, and all these coins need to be either kept or bought to move up, this is a rather large investment, who will move a coin that is not attractive for investment, but small there will be upward movements, and then a return, because it takes profit and there is no expectation from the market to return to the previous price, because when the price was 800, there were 3 million small coins in the market.Returning the previous capitalization, we get a price of $ 270 per coin, why should growth continue? Previously, we reached this price because everything was growing, we had strong hands and did not sell right away because we were expecting more,
the prospect of the project that we have now, everything will probably grow, there are no strong hands, which means that almost all coins will move, which it will reduce the pump because either buy it all or sell it profitably, the prospect of the project will be lost amid the noise of other projects.
If this option is not ruled out, it will certainly happen, and I can also believe in the best.And at zec, inflation is higher than emissions, otherwise with a drop in the cost per coin, the capitalization would remain at the level, but capitalization would fall as well as the place in the rating in relation to other coins. In addition to price formation, there is also market expectation, we had news and favorable periods, but nothing allowed us to change inflation and at least equalize it with emissions, anyway, the price of a coin was ahead of the release of new ones.
I understand what youre saying but I dont see what can be done in the worst case scenario which is certainly possible…
But you seem to see this scenario where BTC drops to lets say 3k stays there all other coins die market quickly recovers we all buy the bottom and were all fine and dandy and happy.
I fear this will not be the case. If something bad happens like that inflation bug from last year that was discovered by a Bitcoin cash developer last year being exploited. This would certainly mean a retest of the 1180 high. At that point almost all of the people you know will have left crypto and it will take YEARS and YEARS of slow and steady grind to get to even 10k.
In fact Im shocked that the BTC community isnt organizing SOME any sort of way to pay for the best developers to maintain and develop the chain as well as organizing indepenent code audits.
Somehow crypto investors have come to the conclusion that its wrong for someone building and maintaining the technology to make money while its perfectly ok for them to make money because you know they read a couple of twitter posts from someone named CryptoTuttiFrutti.
My best friend is a professional and after reading some select e crap of crypto twitter. His comment was “This isnt dumb money, this is idiot money”
But he didnt say it laughing. he had that look of disgust and cringe. And he has dealt with all sorts before he became a V.P. at the bank while he was working at the brokerage desk.
3 Likes
We need a real application of this technology in everyday life, useful and reliable. Perhaps someone will have this idea.
Yes but where I think your mistaking, even though your understanding of economics and markets is very good.
You seem to be assigning the same weight to all market participants be their buyers or sellers. This is untrue and I dont mean just by the amount of money that the market participants have.
Let me give you an example a good trader with a $1000 has much more economic power than a normal hodler with $10 000.
This is because the holder once he buys or sells all the pressure he is going to do on the market is gone. Now lets look at what a good trader is going to do. Lets take this last 6 month downtrend. Once you realize youre in a bear market or local downtrend you are going to want to be doing the opposite of buying the golden reload zone. And that is shorting the golden short zone. So how does a good trader play the downtrend? Like this
Do you understand why it was so hard to break that downtrend that lasting that long? Those are not the only short opportunities in such a downtrend those are just the ones I identified in the last 2 minutes you can find many many of them on all time frames. Thats exactly why I lean towards a red february and a correction for the entire market. And in fact had I sold lets say 10% of my stash and was waiting to rebuy at a lower price I would still target the golden reload zone or the golden pocket. But I would have to adjust my target a little because we did set a slightly hjigher high, The new fib lines up nicely with this top from where the white ray starts it will serve as some sort of support.
So this economic power thing works both ways both for up and down movements. Thats why you always want strong hands and educated investors. People who understand that prices dont go straight up but know how to handle the swings.
And in fact this bull market I am thinking of is nowhere near confirmed. And we wont be sure we were in one until BTC and TOTAL breaks ATH and not every part of the bull market is the same. At the point where the ATH is broken than there is a true parabolic run because people start to really FOMO in. In the disbilief stage we dont even know were in a bull market so we technicalty didnt exit the bear market at the same time as the ALTS market. Because our peak doesn match the disbilief market a full retrace is OK but a lower low is not so its something like this if Im correct.
While we had a prolongued bear market due to not realizing that the alts were in the disbilief stage. like this.
4 Likes
I understand that I can be wrong, it’s good that you do the same
Zec over 1000, we are waiting.
2 Likes
When it hits 88 you’re gonna see some serious s*** !
6 Likes