Bullish expectations are much higher than bearish, but as you know crowd is often wrong.
Based on volume current USD price looks fair. So USD price rise could be only speculative.
On BTC market same situation, even stronger.
Metrics won’t develop until the infrastructure is completed. If the metrics still look like this in a year then I will start to agree with you. Zcash is not going to be used until it is a true privacy coin and to be that the wallets need to be finished and the trusted setup needs to be eliminated via Halo 2. Then if it still hasn’t improved you will have a point. You either bought too early or don’t have enough patience.
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I agree with your point of view, but there is one more. They say that zcash is developing, but for such a conclusion, you say you need to wait another year, further funding was supported precisely because the right path was chosen, but in order to understand the correct one or not, you need to wait another year. And now where you are wrong: 1) At each stage, you need to understand whether the method works, otherwise it is a simple fortune-telling, everyone talks about the importance of the project, which means that the analysis of the methods must be very reliable.
2) I remember about wallets and about mobile ones, repeating your words, like even you yourself said that there are not enough mobile wallets, now they are, more than half a year has passed, there are no results. 3) Wrong business strategy is if someone claims that there are no signs of success now, but they will be in a few years. I do not want to risk such an important project for the sake of people just acting in the wrong direction (this is not a sect of fanatics who should blindly follow the leader).
5) I don’t like then the falsehood in the articles, here is an example:
6)Technically, I’m right now, because there are no indicators that indicate development, and not you, because in order to understand that zcash is developing, you need to wait a year according to your words.
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That is because I see progress. A year ago we didn’t have any wallets besides the full node. We didn’t have interoperability and couldn’t wrap ZEC on Ethereum like we can now. We couldn’t send to a z address from an exchange like we can now with Gemini.
Now this year Josh said that the privacy battle will be next year with regulators, They improved the research on Halo, and they believe they can remove the trusted setup altogether, through a grant from the Ethereum Foundation and they are going to protect this discovery for a year.
So you say there has been no progress but there has been. Shielded transactions are going up all the time too. I am going to give it more time. I don’t need to sell my ZEC to be able to live. I see it as a longer term investment. If there comes a time when there isn’t progress and I see real trouble I will sell it.
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What is progress (development) for zcash, if, for example, instead of 4 wallets there will be 400 progress? Is listing on all exchanges in the world progress? Is the transition from unshielded transactions to shielded transactions while decreasing the total number of transactions is this progress?
I’m not saying that you need to sell zcash in order to live, I say that there is no development, or rather there is a conviction of people that something is developing, but by what parameters can we understand this now?
First-order logic: If there are no changes since creation, or changes are only in the direction of worsening, then this is not progress (progress is movement forward)
- All kinds of calls and meetings do not give a result (I can give in the future, but if there is no progress from month to month, then this should be an auxiliary and not a main activity) 2) Wallets do not give the desired result of adoption - you need to answer the question why? 3) Talking about what is important and necessary for ZCASH does not convince the government to allow it everywhere - incentives are needed. 4) A free distribution of zcash on a coin base did not give anything at all - they expected that there will be 100 thousand new users, but active wallets only decreased. 5) Improvements to the network do not give a result and over time the indicators only fall, although I believe that they should either grow or stay in place - why?
I am not saying that everything is bad, I am saying that the first 4 years were spent, and what result was achieved, and why the team says that it is positive. As zooko said, we have a million users, where are they? Remember that the battle for confidentiality was in 2020, and should not start in 2021, it is already underway, where is the result? What happens if Halo brings absolutely nothing. I believe that for further movement it is necessary to clearly understand what criteria to analyze (otherwise we will have daily meetings and 400 different wallets in the next 4 years and a hundred zcash users)
The wrapped token is good, but too late, the fashion has passed and we will not be able to gain volumes, which means this idea will not bring anything at all, let’s focus on all the outdated achievements that other coins went through a few years ago?
Last year there was a network update that opened the possibility of transfers from mobiles, remember what was announced? (now zcash can be sent from mobiles, mobile wallets will appear and this will open the way to adoption - we look at the charts and do not see at least some significant rise) This year we are fighting for confidentiality and it was within this fight that the wrapped token that was talked about at the end of last year was introduced, as well as a network update that allowed Gemini to add support for secure sending. Now we are waiting for halving, next year for HALO.
The legitimate question is: what will we wait after?
I’m not talking about the price, I’m talking about the development and progress of the project as a whole, it is important for me to understand where it is actually going and not where they believe or think it is going, in order to understand this, we need the main points by which we can say that all the work on the project gives the result here and now and not after 1, 3 or 50 years (and that may or may not be)
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Next interesting points.
If we look into forum’s top topics (by replys) during all time what we see - two topics most interesting for people - price and mining.
Then if we look into top topics (by replys) during last year what we see - Zcash internal administration topics in top.
Yes if ZEC got 400 wallets that would be tremendous progress. That would mean the wallet providers thought they could make money offering ZEC to more people. Did you know that Bitcoin is hardly used to buy anything? Ethereum is used in purchasing much more. Which one has the highest market cap? Is real progress good if the market cap doesn’t go up? The higher the market cap the more it is valued but not necessarily used. Nothing they add can give results too quickly. There are not enough people interested in cryptocurrency right now. There are no doubts that there is progress. It just takes time in a market dominated by Bitcoin.
To a lot of us the market itself doesn’t make sense. Why is Bitcoin the highest market cap? Only because it was the first, name recognition, and security, not because it has more functionality or better tech. So with this type of market psyche presently in place how would you go about making Zcash more successful than Bitcoin?
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You are absolutely wrong! Bitcoin is used to buy more than any other token or dollar, cryptocurrencies are bought for bitcoins on exchanges, and that is why it has such a capitalization, it is a reserve currency for states like the dollar, if we draw an analogy. Having 400 wallets and not having users, in my opinion, is not progress, but fraud. If you hired a company to organize an event and they baked 30 cakes for all the money and that’s all, I think you would not be happy, here is the same, the goal of zcash is to become a means of payment, the goal is not achieved, but to say that someday later we will see the result is fraud because the work is done for real money, I’m not saying that someone is a fraud.
I say that work is just for the sake of work for which you are paid and there are no results; this is not an approach to achieve a result, but in order to simply have an income.
I say that work is just for the sake of work for which you are paid and there are no results; this is not an approach to achieve a result, but in order to simply have an income. Bitcoin fulfills its function, ether too, and zcash is good only by talking. Now the question is why ether is able to achieve a result, while zcash does not, this is exactly what does not suit me, why the best team in the world, as they call themselves, is not losing the best, and in principle losing to many. As a person who is interested in success, this does not suit me, you may be happy with it, but it should not concern me. I have a rather clear question “by what criteria can we say that there is progress in the development of zcash at every stage”
You yourself are a hostage of your own logic, you have to wait so long for the result, tell me a year, and then another year or maybe 10 years, there are no specific goals?
In previous posts I gave you real examples through which it can be seen that people were waiting for one thing and received something completely different, this is a consequence of the same logic (halving gives an increase in price, no, an increase in price gives pumping while waiting for halving, for zcash this rule does not work due to the absence interest) In order for zcash to succeed, it must be interesting to people, all efforts must be thrown into it (to conclude exclusive contracts for the implementation of payments through zcash, to organize canary domestic payments within the country, the world, as well as to reveal the potential for savings through zcash)
From my point of view, the price reflects well the position of zcash (a fall in prices due to a fall in demand and interest, a further decrease will pose a problem of financing if the price remains stable throughout 2021, low capitalization, which means high market volatility and lack of interest of real companies, sharp price jumps in during the project will involve the regulator in the situation, and so on) As you noticed, success is not important for people, it is enough to release 400 wallets in 2021, and 200 each next year. I think all the remaining funding of the team should be spent on this and this will be progress.
“Comparing Ethereum to Bitcoin is difficult because the latter is a store of value and a currency. In contrast, Ethereum is a smart contracts blockchain protocol that processes many types of data alongside transactions.”
The means of payment are not the same as transfers. Perhaps the translator is to blame, but in the previous post you wrote that ethereum is used for purchases and not for transfers much more and in the article it is clearly indicated that bitcoin is a means of accumulation and currency, when ethereum is a means for transfers, despite the fact that almost all transfers are stupid speculation on smart contracts. Bitcoin is traded for the main pairs in the entire market, so it is in demand and therefore expensive. Ethereum is the second largest pair (not counting the dollar in all its forms), so it is the second. And zcash 33 precisely because interest in it is falling all the time, and not because the release of new coins is large.
Thanks to the issue, it is still on the 33rd line instead of 50, because the issue of coins for 400 thousand per day keeps the capitalization against the background of a decrease in value, there will be an issue of 200 at the same price and zec will begin to descend to 35 and then to 40 lines, because the demand is not will grow.
In my opinion, the mistake in completely excluding the increase in the number of real users is a failure.
The number of real users of zcash is something that should have been thought about 2 years ago, when the graphs show that the usage is falling (we look at active addresses per day), now the strategy “we will make the technology and you all will accept it” will not give a real positive result, therefore that there is no answer why people should use it, the real need for confidentiality at the level of experimentation is not needed by anyone, and this will never be legally fixed. Bitcoin is a force to be reckoned with, zcash is an attempt to speculate on everyone’s unreal need to remain undisclosed.
Technically, I can remain anonymous even with cash, but the same anonymous payments with zcash are not possible, otherwise Visa would use this technology.
In fairness, I agree that zcash has some development, and I am ready to agree with you that all this development can lead to success, but I am not ready to agree that we do not need to do an analysis monthly in order to understand whether we are going right or not, and we need definitely understand where the failure was, so as not to repeat methods that do not work. Otherwise, I argue that ZCASH at the current stage has INSUFFICIENT success (development) based on the cost and time that was spent on it.
Despite the fact that there were no wallets and the network was updated, it had more users than now, more people watched the project than now, there were more expectations from the project, etc. During the first 4 years, there should be development in all key areas, which is not on the schedule, that’s what I’m talking about, to assert that this does not need to be wrong, the project can get into a situation of a constant drop in interest from which there is no way to get out.
Finding #19 — Eth IS Money
16.2M ETH is in ‘active’ circulation meaning in the last 90 days it passed through a payment processor, payment gateway or smart contract (excluding exchange and multisig.)
That means ETH is actually being HEAVILY used as money and gas.
Compare that to Bitcoin where 57% of Bitcoin hasn’t moved in over a year (with 21% not moving since 2015).
And only 0.36% of Bitcoin has been through a payment processor in the past two-years.
When it comes to being money, ETH is used 440x more than Bitcoin for transacting.
ETH is money.
Plain, simple, and re-tweetable.
From this article.
The fallacy of the conclusion lies in the fact that the author says that moving is equal to payment, do you understand that this is not so? If I transfer 100 times between the exchange wallet and the cold wallet, what did I pay for? When my bitcoin is on the exchange, I pay for the purchase of zec, this is a function of money, but I do not make transfers, so in addition to transfers, I need to analyze the payment. An example from real life, I pay with a card, make a transfer for goods from a bank account, but if the bank is a store, then where I transfer money, nowhere, an internal transfer is made that will not be included in the statistics, but the goods remain with me not virtual. Ethereum is a means of playing with transfers and smart contracts, but it goes further and becomes a means of accumulation and payment because it is the second token in terms of market volume.
It is impossible to cleanse the statistics from the overestimation of exchange rates, it is difficult to draw conclusions, but bitcoin, as they correctly noted, is not equal to ethereum, different purposes are different applications, and I cannot imagine the real use of ethereum as payment for goods and services, and bitcoin has long been used around the world. But the main market for Bitcoin is payment on exchanges, of course. There are much fewer transfers, I do not argue with this, but there are much more payments, look at the volume per day / month / year for these two currencies.
ycash fork most likely.
The asic megathread. It began just before the Z9 mini was released and just barely after the end all bug was found. It just kept going and going and yes I believe the Ycash fork happened somewhere along those lines.
I think bitcartel started it because of the increasing network hashpower and subsequent rumors about said asic development. Howard may have announced the fork before then but I can’t recall.