over night the zcash price has dropped 50% whats your opinions on this? will it drop more?
TL;DR Yes, obviously.
- Currently, the "slow start" is causing a lot of scarcity. A new currency is always illiquid at launch, but even more with ZCash, and has caused 100% of current high price.
- Due to ZCash being very popular even before launch, most of the external capital able to fuel the raise of the price of the currency has already been deployed, and should not change a lot.
- The number of ZECs not only will increase, but the rate of increase will rise as well.
The price will hence fall consistently, as more and more ZECs hit the market without additional capital to buy them. ZCash is new and the currency rate will be highly volatile, sometime rising substantially, but the global trend should be downward.
Also, the fact that the price is falling will encourage people to sell immediately, and not accumulate, because obviously it will be more interesting to buy later.
When will it stop, how low ?
The price should hit the floor pretty soon, in a matter of months. I suspect the price then to gather around other popular alt-coins.
Then, and only then, after many months of stagnation, and only if there are no critical vulnerability or manipulation around the currency, the trust will start to build, and so adoption, and so the price will rise again.
My advice: sell now, buy later with a limit order above stagnation level. Trading highly dangerous.
Quick guesstimation: <0.1BTC in 3 month
Basically i agree with you, just not with this point. I doubt that "external capital" would buy ZEC's at this moment, where the price is astronomical - would make no sense as an investment - exactly because as you say the price will only fall, and might never recover to the initial price in the next 5-10 years. Im more inclined to think there is no external capital, as any serious than completely mad person would not throw anything at ZEC at this moment, until it shows it can work sustainably for several years.
The adventurous people will invest at a point when the price will go down to 0.1 like you say or something close to it. The price activity we are seeing now is most probably bots and speculative traders.
Well, external capital is actually what brought the price so high in the first place!! A mark to market is only possible when there is a buyer and seller, both agreeing on that price
But of course, there are not many people willing to buy so high, hence the fall...