ZCASH Price Rebound?

@Digitmint I called for $100 ZEC on November 6th (Honest Warning about ZCash and its HYPE and PRICE - #4 by vgm), not because I had a crystal ball, but because I understood some basic economic factors which are still at play here.

The decline in ZEC price was a direct result of the mining profitability differential between ETH and ZEC. As long as ZEC mining remained more profitable, there was a huge economic incentive for ETH miners to switch to ZEC and then simply exchange ZEC for ETH on an exchange like Poloniex or Shapeshift. The result for miners was a higher ETH yield per day, and the unintended consequence of this was a large supply of ZEC continuously being sold for ETH. However, this economic incentive was bound to end when the profitability of ZEC mining dipped below the profitability of ETH.

We are now at the point where ETH profitability is beginning to overtake ZEC profitability again, and low and behold we’re starting to see the ZEC price stabilize. It no longer makes any sense to mine ZEC only to sell it for less ETH than you would have got mining ETH straight. This means that either miners will simply revert back to ETH mining, which has already started, or miners will simply hold ZEC instead of exchanging it for ETH. What they definitely won’t do is continue to mine ZEC and sell it right away.

As far as price rebounds go? Don’t expect a bull market in ZEC to magically appear. Supply and demand forces are still the fundamental drivers here, and I believe increasing supply and a lack of demand could see ZEC go as low as $30 in the coming months, because markets have a tendency to overshoot.

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