Because you nearly doubled your hashrate only a day ago with nanopool after taking it off of flypool, so you were still getting paid shares and previously-unconfirmed ZEC at flypool and have yet to receive shares and confirmations you are due at nanopool. You have 45,000 Sol/s and you are not taking this into account? You can confirmed this by looking and your last few payouts and shares at nanopool and seeing they are the same eventhough you took nearly half of your miners offline. Also look how big your last few hours of payouts are. There was apparently a long delay in confirmations due to 25% of miners switching back to ETH late yesterday due to the price drop.
Having said that, after some detailed figuring on my own and yours for yesterday, it does seem like we're still missing 25%. Not the 125% you're claiming above. I expect more confirmations will come through. There are 3 blocks (5% of their daily) from yesterday that have not been confirmed. That's weird. another thing to consider is that with only 60 blocks found in a day for a pool, the EXPECTED error for EACH pool is 1/SQRT(60) = 13%. And a net decrease in network hash rate for the day means slightly fewer than 576 blocks will be found as the difficulty adjustment lags.
For my 735 S/s yesterday, I should expect the following each day with a pool:
735 Sol/s / 9.75 M global Sol/s x 576 blocks/day x 2.8 ZEC/block = 0.122 ZEC/day per 735 Sol/s. I got 0.0866, but the weirdness of a delay at nanopool showing up this morning means I actually got about 1.0. The other factor might account
I have to use less than the actual 2.85 ZEC/block because of the delay in confirmations.