I predict we are within 25% of where a stable bottom will form. We are relatively close to the max-reward and miners have largely stopped improving by massive factors.
Where are you thinking, then? I get the feeling thereās support growing around $50 and .1 btc, respectively.
Itās not far from my estimate based on the trend and miner reward.
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You thinking higher or lower? Iām not mining, so havenāt been keeping track of rewards lately.
Stripping out outside factors I think we can go 25% lower before reward maxes out. After that I think we have a solid floor. Of course any positive development from the Zcash team could significantly raise price after this long period of downtrend.
Looking at current block reward vs the block reward when slow mining finishes yes. What you arenāt taking into account is the total supply vs what we have now.
50K now vs 150K in one month , 250K the second etc etc.
The floor will probably be around the $15-$25 level
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I doubt the supply will affect price as much as the slow start. The sliding reward is a much more price affecting factor than constant supply, and no one expects Zcash to be worth only $5 million long term anyway. I expect $100 mil+ market cap by end of 2017 for sure.
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The way I see it is how it acts verse something like Ethereum when you mine (in terms of profitability). Being a lower profitability (vs Ethereum) will cause miners (that sell for profit) to drop off and point there hashrate to Ethereum, keeping the miner/hodlers on Zcash.
The safest bet is just to mine and hodl, it will work itself out.
Entirely possible, I think we will swing around ETH profitability as median while price will spike and dip based on general news instead of reward increase. I have been selling some since start but will mine and hold when we hit full reward.
The only problem I see (short termish) is the 20-30% savings on power running vs Ethereum, especially for bigger farms that have cheap electricity.
We need a miner that actually performs close to the GPUs max TDP (or close to Ethereums TDP on the same card) so more drop-off and we find a equilibrium.
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Iām not so sure the power draw matters that much. Cheap power makes 20% almost a non factor on return over just variance in price.
I mine both and power isnāt really a big deal. 20-30% is almost negligible at low cost power if you compare to pool fee, mining software fee, and power loss from 120, PSU etc.
Look at the bigger farms. They donāt even dual mine cause they donāt care about the extra income. They just want ROI on ETH.
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My estimates since before launch have been between $3 and $30.
People will mine this coin āat a lossā (speculating on the future value) so donāt make the mistake of thinking that the difficulty (or more specifically, the cost of minting a coin) will have anything to do with the price this early on.
There is a LOT of smart money that wants to jump into ZEC, but it wonāt do that until this thing bottoms out.
Just wait until the bloodbath is over before putting any money into this chain.
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Parity with Monero will be the all-time low.
46$ my guess
slow start is near over
Over 60 for sure 
20 char
we are at $102 and 6 days to goā¦nice
To buy or not to buy. Thatās the magical question. 
I think the price will just dump again within the next few hours.
And difficulty is skyrocketing. 
Difficulty: 813843.83
Uh, Jesus mother of lord!