The market is changing. Today Polo announced that it is discontinuing their p2p margin lending wallet. I’ve been trading since the trollbox days and i just think today marks an end of an era.
2 Likes
Since ASICs came into play it will need to readjust (which will probably take a little while). They are far more kwh/hash efficient, so that’s why things are looking like they are on that front. Eventually, it should even out since miners should presumably not sell for a loss, and they will control all newly mined ZEC.
Now the world can use a mobile wallet with Z addresses and access to the private key. That will be Zcash Zen for me.
Glad to see the video. It’s quite good.
Can you show many any evidence that hashrate causes the price to go up. I have seen many things showing it has no effect on the price, the price effects the hashrate not the other way around. I have not seen any information that supports what you are saying.
Can you link some posts/charts/information on your theory I would honestly like to see something that might support your claim and the logic behind it. Price is based on supply and demand. The same number of coins will be mined no matter what the hashrate is.
Price does not follow hashrate. Look at Bitcoin hashrate, its 5 times bigger this year, WHY NO MOON LAMBOS? Please show me differently.
1 Like
I agree 100% with this as well and i’am not a fan of the price/hashrate argument either.
In my opinion price is effected by supply & demand in first place. Followed and maybe even interruped temporary by some other factors like news, manipulation, security, design, tech, and so on. But the main factor is just simply supply & demand.
Of course just my opinion…
1 Like
bitcoin, litecoin, ethereum… are 3 examples. most fundamental traders consider hashrate to be a leading indicator.
2 Likes
Bitfinex is down for maintenance today, anything can happen.
I disagree with this statement. In my opinion hashrate is lagging indicator, not a leading one.
Best example would be even Bitcoin vs. Bitcoin Cash. Which ever of these 2 has a higher profitablity gets a good portion hashrate shifted towards them.
Not much different on equihash either. Huge amounts of hashrate gets shifted btw. ZEC and ZEN day by day. Therefore considering hashrate as a lagging indicator fits way better than a leading indicator in my opinion.
I personally consider amount of transactions, volume, design, security, news, tech, team, whatever as leading indicators, but not hashrate. But than again, that’s just my personal opinion.
1 Like
hashrate would be considered a leading indicator. you disagree with that statement; we’ll just agree to disagree.
2 Likes
I’ve started watching the ‘number of connections to my node’ as a possible indicator, kinda interesting.
Significant uptrend in the last few days (currently 53!), time will tell if its useful or not.
2 Likes
I guess a better way to put it would be that over the long run, price seems trend in the direction of hashrate. During a bear market, it will lag behind, and during a bull market it will over shoot. However, each bull market will drive further mining expansion, and then the cycle repeats itself.
That said, ASICs act as a disruptor, so explosive hash growth from ASICs will not immediately cause a spike. Over the long run though, that additional hashrate helps secure the network (as long as it remains PoW) and that in turn adds value.
Supply and demand obviously plays a role, but scarcity alone isn’t enough, which is evident with the number of trash coins out there.
Some of the large player funds measure the value of bitcoin in the value of the network, which correlates to hashrate and adoption.
I guess stating it follows might be wrong, but over the long run, they will trend in the same direction, and hashrate will affect price.
2 Likes
I ask again, can you link or show any evidence that supports your claim. I have not seen any evidence to show hashrate going up and then price following it BECAUSE of the hashrate. Its the opposite, hashrate follows price. Here is some quick evidence to support MY claims.
Bitcoin hashrate skyrockets AFTER price shoots up.
Litecoin hashrate follows price AFTER the price shot up to $300.
Ethereum same as other, hashrate follows the price.
Do you have anything to support your claim? Or is this just a opinion? I honestly want to know why you people think this? Bitcoins hashrate has gone 5x this year, how much should this effect the price? 5x? 1x? .1x? How much does hashrate add to the price.
What is considered the long run? Almost a whole year has gone by with Bitcoin and its hashrate has gone up 5 times over this year. How long does it take for the price to follow the hashrate? Can you even be sure its the cause if it takes year/years to effect the price?
If the price follows the hashrate, it should be pulling us out of this bear market looking at how all the hashrates have gone 5-10x this year. How long do we have to wait for the hashrate to make the price moon?
2 Likes
In crypto, I’m looking long term, so I’m thinking 10-15 years out. Within that timeframe you’ll have a number bull and bear markets, eventually leading to a very long bull run. So when I’m talking long run, it’s normally in years as opposed to months.
The miners people order take a while to get there, so a lot of the hashrate coming on after the bull market (this time around) is due to people ordering during the bull market and bull market peak. Each bull market also spreads awareness. I know during this last one, a somewhat well known billionaire was considering opening a fairly large mining operation as an example (to my knowledge they didn’t, but I haven’t asked my friend about it since last year).
I believe the price will follow the increased hashrate over the long term. By that, I mean we will most likely see some statistical significance between the two over the next 5-10 years. I think if you look back to this after the next bull peak, things will look similar.
For LTC, you have to recall they released the L3+, which added tons of hashing power to the network. Some will always re-direct their mining efforts for maximum profitability to other coins, but that added hashrate and addition of new miners will be reflected in the price over the long run. Or that’s my belief at least.
1 Like
if i had scientific proof of leading fundamental indicators i’d be a lot more wealthly than i already am.
“you people” i’m conveying a common message, not 100% sold on this.
could take the time to show you where a trader would think price follows hashrate, but i would need to zoom-in on your charts, point stuff out (that’s work), and i just don’t care enough to do so. H/R - E/R seem to track one another fairly well until 2018. 2018 hashrate continues to climb whilst exchange rate corrects. this could indicate future price gains (leading indicator).
2 Likes
The price v hasrate with Dash follows the same trend as @Lisfin indicated. You might as well lump ZCash into it as well.
1 Like
I think we will need another bull run to confirm this theory. Do people invest in mining because they believe it will go up or do people invest in mining because the price is high and profit is there to be made? I believe most of the explanation is the latter, but if the hashrate keeps going up even though profits are flat or negative it means the former is true.
2 Likes
@JKDC I believe both forces are controlling the decision to enter the mining pit. However, there must be enough proceeds to be accumulated now minus the cost of mining operations to justify it and a long term upside.
ATM I guess all GPU miners are in that zone.
How deep into the zone that is, is what 1 is willing to risk.
ATM mining BTG with a loss, I need at least a price of 35 to break even.
My guess is it will make that.
When ? Don’t know, but I believe it will. No idicators for that, just my gutt feeling.
Off topic, BTG is growing a lot quicker then Zcash atm, despite the much bigger growing hashrate of Zcash.
In this case Price doesn’t follow hashrate it seems
1 Like
Like I mentioned already in my post on crypto being backed by electricity Crypto backed by electricity
(these data are no longer accurate), its not the hashrate that matters, its the electricity used to produce that hashrate.
BTG is getting delisted from bittrex on nov. 5th.
apparently, the market believes this is good news.