Price Speculation


#6360

Doing well so far. :wink:


#6361


Read another one recently about a googleplay BTC wallet removing privacy features


#6362

Here y’go -


#6363

This thing with China shouldn’t really be a surprise, we were talking about it the crackdown coming months ago
Post 5081 this thread


#6364

I’m trying to evaluate how much of a competitive threat Beam and Grin are to Zcash. Am I understanding correctly that Grin’s coin supply is uncapped? It sounds like Grin’s current emission rate is 60 coins approximately every minute, forever (no slow down and no cap).


#6365

Pretty sure both are coming strong in my opinion.

I’am testing BEAM for some days now, mining it with the gpu’s i have left. It has for sure an more than interesting wallet where someone can mine with cpu, gpu and setup his own node, all absolutly easy organized. Wallet adresses that expire after a given setuped time and whatever not. It looks like a promising privacy coin for sure in my opinion.

For Grin, i have readed a bit but will wait for the main net to start as currentlythey are still only testing if i’am remember right. The uncapped coin supply got my attention as well. But than again, there are more coins without fixed coin supply around, ETH is mostly the most prominent example. I haven’t checked there wallets or other features so far due testing BEAM with gpu and cpu mining is more interesting for some research and testing. I still think GRIN might come strong as well.

I would as well always keep an eye on PIVx to see how they are doing with POS.

Another maybe interesting privacy coin to be released very soon is Bitcoin Confidential with ringCT and mandatory stealth adresses based on pure improved POS. If i remember right done by the Smart Cash team and to be released the next weeks.

With 2 new privacy coins on gpu and 2 privacy coins on POS these are interesting to watch closely in my opinion. My prediction is that all 4 mentioned ZEC competitors will make it at least into the top 100.


#6366

Reminds me of the scene in the jungle book with King Louie! (Only teasing!) I saw that post but it didn’t occur to me like this


#6367

I’m working on something kind of like that, but much more extensive. It involves Zcash partly in conjunction with others! Very complex system. One “chain” alone could not supply what the end product needs to be safe and work smooth.

This is light years ahead of what is available today. It will set out a way ahead and open a whole different perspective in crypto. I will explain more another time.


#6368



#6369


#6370

This is laughable
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/venezuelan-wto-request-accuses-us-222000828.html
Venezuela World Trade Organization is accusing the US of discriminatory action against their piece of crap Petro! :rofl: in case you don’t know yet it’s illegal to possess for Americans (like Id want it anyways!)


#6371

Buy my new coin, its called space-quid, it’s backed by theoretical resources buried in asteroids, the profits go towards theoretical spaceships to acquire said theories


#6372


#6373

This is funny AF…20char


#6374


And I thought the TRON thing was backwards!
just keep in mind you can use it and simultaneously cannot use it


#6375

@hloo

seems Grin had a good start with their main net attracting a lot of gpu miners.

From what i see the mainnet is alive for mining since ~1 day. The network allready has 303.30 Kgps, that’s about 35,000 gpu’s mining at first day on my calculation… Just thought to let you know as you asked for feedback on grin and beam…


#6376

@hloo

saw an interesting graphic on the grin channel a grin fan posted:

not talking about the price and marketcap prediction there, but the coins in supply. It as well shows that both, Grin and Beam are aiming on ZEC and ZMR as it seems.

Coin Supply in the chart posted: (i did not double check these to see if they are correct!)

Year 2020 supply:
ZEC: 7.884M
XMR: 17.386M
BEAM: 52.560M
GRIN: 31.536M

Year 2024 supply:
ZEC: 14.454M
XMR: 18.374M
BEAM: 157.860M
GRIN: 157.680M

Year 2050 Supply (FULL Supply):
ZEC: 21M
XMR: 22.5M
BEAM: 262.8M
GRIN: 997.6M

the year 2050 Grin supply pretty much answers the infinite question, it will be about 1B in 30 years and i think someone is safe to use that 1B number when when talking about max supply the next 10 years in case of Grin.

1.) not sure if the author of that chart has included the ZEC halving coming, too lazy to check right now.
2.) There is a lot of hype about Grin right now as it seems, but the mining procedure is in my opinion terrible at the moment with only linux based gpu mining. I guess ones windows is released as well the current hashrate of ~390 KH/s (over 40,000 gpu’s) will increase further.
3.) Grin price at the moment is hyped in my opinion, will fall way down. In the graph the author mention $2 assumption, i could bet it will be in the $0.25-0.50, which would be still strong in my opion. Beam price might rise and get higher in my opinion as below $1 is just too low.
4.) Mid to long term i personally think BEAM due it’s lower supply and some other factors is the bigger competitor as they don’t rule the hype wave at the moment. Just again my personal prediction, i could be totally wrong here of course.
5.) IF the chart is true and ZEC halving is included watching the 2020-2024 year supply XMR has some advantage with releasing the less coins, ZEC is about doubling them, BEAM triple issuance and Grin about x7…

Hope this helped value how much of competition this both might be in future.


#6377

My “logical” ZEC price analyze & prediction:

Instead of graphs, charts and patterns i will use just and only pure logic and common sense on raw available data and just share my opinion.

To fit it up allready here, i think we didn’t hit the bottom yet, especially the BTC/ZEC ratio. Why?

Negative & bearish logical points:

  • Inflation seems to be our biggest problem until halving. We have right now some whopping 0.12-0.13% per day inflation. Or, per year around 47%. Compared to Bitcoin with 3.5% that’s just huge. I think it’s logical to assume that with a 13-14x higher inflation compared to Bitcoin it’s impossible to keep up the pace with BTC.
    Many seem to underestimated the impact of inflation, but it’s a huge factor in my opinion.

  • Halving. We all impatiently wait for the halving. While it will help it will not be a generally heal at all. It will just halve the enourmous inflation we have anyway. From 47% to 23.5%. That’s still a too high inflation in my opinion to keep pace with other leading currencies, especially BTC and ETH. ETH’s constantiople will lower their inflation from around 6% to 4% and the move to POS will mostly lower it further as i personally await another reward redcution there. This shows clearly that with over 20% after halving we are not competitive when it comes to inflation,

  • Issued supply: Currently around 27% of ZEC is issued. Me personally is a believer that for a reliable price the more % issued the better and valuable the price. As well related to inflation of course as with 100% you remove the inflation issue. Currently we have issued about 27% of all ZEC, only toped by Stellar with only 13% issued, in the Top 50 by marketcap currencies. Compared to BTC with allready 83% issued. Again logical in my opinion that this compared to the BTC is a con and until we get to a high issued supply we can’t keep the BTC price ratio.

  • Volume: ZEC volume is currently unreal. Some exchanges inflate it enourmously and it’s not limited to ZEC. The propose is mostly to make looking these exchanges more liquid within the exchange competition. There are allready some researches that come to the conclusion that many of these exchanges wash trade/fake the volume enourmously having only about 1-5% indeed traded.
    This might have a short term positive effect to ZEC price but it’s useless and missleading volume which doesn’t help in any way as it’s not involved in realy market pricce making but just and only in shifting funds at best.
    Therefore i compared the announced volume versus the actually happening TX data. While it’s far from being reliable at least we can get an idea what happens. Here some exmamples for different groups when applying a volume/TX factor added with the top 3 exchanges:

Indicator for real volume - very low inflated volume:
Decred: Volume $1,083,977, TX Volume: $5,997,050, Factor -5, DragonX, Binance, Bittrex,
Digibyte: Volume: $613,857, TX Volume: $1,175,745, Factor -2, Bittrex, Sistemkoin, Poloniex,
Cardano: Volume: $26,435,339, TX Volume: $176,290,494, Factor -7, ZBG, Binance, Upbit,

Indicator for low - medium inflated volume:
Bitcoin: Volume: $5,280,836,340, TX Volume: $2,749,510,107, Factor 2, Bitmex, EXX, Coinbene,
Zilliqa, Volume: $9,598,779, TX Volume: $7,609,794, Factor 1.3, Binance, Coineal, Bitmart,
0x, Volume: $8,605,778, TX Volume: $2,450,005, Factor 3.5, Binance, Bitmart, 55Global, Coinbase,

Indicator for medium to high inflated volume:
Zcash, Volume: $155,369,237, TX Volume: ~$25,000,000, Factor 6, Lbank, Coinmex, Bit-Z,
Ethereum, Volume: $2,414,801,785, TX Volume: $355,272,873, Factor 7, Dobi, Bibox, OKex,

Indicator for high inflated volume:
Dash, Volume: $158,805,327, TX Volume: $8,463,699, Factor 18, Coinmex, ZB, Exrated, Lbank,
Omisego, Volume: $33,677,817, TX Volume: $893,112, Factor 37, ZB, Coinmex, Huobi,

Indicator for extreme inflated volume:
Stellar Lumen, Volume: $114,637,105, TX Volume: $1,233,896, Factor: 95, ZB, Exrated, Latoken

However, the impact of that inflated volume isn’t yet really clear to me. On one side it might help stabilize a price daily as it’s a neutral one not involved in real low/high price trades, on the other side it’s missleading as it gives some unreal volume vallue to a given currency which is just missleading. On the longer run i’am pretty sure it’s hurting us. I have no doubt that at some time this inflated volme exchanges will be removed from ZEC’s volume and the huge volume drop will mostly be interpreted as a bad signal by traders/investors causing a price drop. Just my logical conclusion, hence i included it here.

Competition: There are a lot of privacy coins allready around. Beginning from allready established privacy coins like Monero, Dash and PIVx to some newcomers like Grin and Beam and some to be released soon like Bitcoin Confidential. Having in mind that these newcomers, especially Grin started really strong, at least when it comes to gpu mining with allready around 70,000 gpu’s mining it after only 3 days of it’s start i’am pretty sure this coin will take a piece of the established privacy coins market share. How much has to be seen, but there is a big chance that former ZEC gpu miners, holders and/or gpu believers in the meanning of anti-asic community will switch there and take a bigger piece of ZEC market as we would like to have. As said, this has yet to be seen as it turns out, fact is that for 2019 we have new competitors for sure.

  • Development: In my opinion in 2019 we will get the weakest development so far. That’s just my opinion and hopefully i’am wrong here. Seeing the some goals postponed for 2020 let’s me believe that we lose ground in the next 2 years. Honestly, hopefully i’am wrong here and we see maybe some changes and/or development surprises, but i’am bearish here. I want hide my disapointment that i have awaited more and better goals for 2019 having in mind the really good financial background for the dev team.

  • Social Community: I might be wrong here, but i have a feeling we lost a lot of the social community. I don’t want to go deeper into the causes of it as we are all well aware why we lost a lot of the social community, i think this will hit us in 2019 as well until we are able to build up again a stronger social community. I’am as well bearish here and doubt we can do this in 2019/2020.

  • Missing Innovation for 2019: I can’t see something real innovative for 2019, that’s something i really miss. I might miss something, but than again with innovative i mean something no other coin has…

Positive and bullish points:

  • Actice Wallets/Adresses per day: We are still strong here compared to most other coins, this is really a good indicator in my opinion. Many may see this as a negative factor as we went from over 100k adresses per day to just 20k adresses. True, we lost a lot, but we are still strong here compared to most other coins.

  • Brand: Zcash is a Brand, staying for good tech and privacy allready. Not too many coins in my opinion have such good brand like ZEC.

  • Number of payments: We are doing pretty good here. With 35,483 we lead a lot compared to Monero for example and do pretty good compared to other coins.

That’s it all over.

Now just let me add that something. I’am a true believer of the saying: You can get only stronger if you know your weak points and try to correct them. While my view is indeed bearish for the next 2 years at least, this doesn’t mean that i don’t think ZEC has great value and potential in the long run!! But in the short run there are more cons than positives and i doubt we can hold the BTC/ZEC ratio the next 2 years…

Just my opinion and in case i’am totally wrong here, superb, as a ZEC holder i have nothing against being totally wrong here.


#6379

I agree with some of that :wink:

Inflation is a problem for all newcomers, the newer the coin the worse it is - reciprocal curve.

Right now our rate is bad, but its been much worse and it improves with every new block. For new coins (GRIN/BEAM) its a much bigger challenge.

There’s an equilibrium where price stabilizes & I don’t think that’s far away - ZECBTC should trade sideways for some months at that point, we could be almost there.


#6380

What I worry most is that all this makes zcash a short sell target, the zecbtc chart seems a forever falling wedge and even if BTC trades side ways zcash price falls more in comparision so it is less risky to short. The TOP coins by volume recovered well recently but what is surprising and concerning is that despite one of the lowest supply in the market, zcash recovery from the recent Low is just 11% which is the one of the lowest among TOP 20 coins by volume. The community will be strong if it prospers and vice versa…:slight_smile: