Price Speculation

[kek]

@Anton1

What prices do you predict?

unfortunately, i’m really blackpilled on ZEC exchange rates. we’re going to still have comparatively high inflation even after the 1st halving, and we’ll probably continue with high selling pressure as winners of new major grants fund their operations. still believe we’ll get a pump at halving, but’ll be short lived. we have a lot of bag holders that’ll probably dump as we hit critical levels. honestly looking for better performance as emissions become more “normalized” after the 2nd halving. also, we still have no serious outreach. bright spot is twitter’s less hostile now that we have some shills posting there… but that’s not going to be enough to deal with high inflation, bagholders, and major grant winners. my gut tells me MGWs will be dumping hard to fund their startups/companies.

“fund ECC for 2 more years”
and
“Changing Zcash supply curve to 3% yearly after 2020 halving”

would’ve solved this, imo, but both ZIPs were rejected, so now we’ll probably need to deal with poor market performance for a few more years. i’m okay with that, it’ll allow people to buy “cheap” ZEC, and build decent positions. people with patience will be rewarded over time.

[Anton1]

I am glad to see a sober view of the situation from you, without any 300-500-10000 during the year, month, week.
In fact, the issue is not important in the calculation, only important purchasing power, all zcash for at a price of $ 100 in November, will cost 1 billion, it’s less than many of the capitalizations of the top of the list, therefore, is able to be redeemed with the consequent increase, take an example of a BCH, now worth 5 billion, even with the slight issue it is expensive and can be reset, so the holders and buyers is more important than the issue, important for zcash for inflation or depreciation of available coins and not the new release, even if the emission is 0 then sales will stop, maybe a little bit but not quite, and until the moment comes when there will be more buyers and sellers, this is what you need to develop, you need something that will make people want to have zec and this is not a Confederacy and anonymity, perhaps as an addition to other functions but definitely not the main ones.
I was waiting for zec to become a coin that will provide this functionality for the founders of coins (bitcoin and Ethereum), but this has not happened yet and we are no longer the main suppliers of this functionality, so we lose our appeal, the second function is messaging with complete anonymity, which is also delayed, then this is the key to access sites, but this is very difficult because no one seems to want to deal with a company without a world name. There is still functionality for every day, but it is also difficult to implement, so it does not make sense that we have in the balance, only speculation, i.e. you need to take money from other projects and just publicize yourself.
I believe that just during the pump zec can reach up to 1200 dollars but it’s just a Deposit and reset, and I would like to increase the value of the project, i.e. the price increase no matter what.

[boxalex]

@kek

unfortunately, i’m really blackpilled on ZEC exchange rates. we’re going to still have comparatively high inflation even after the 1st halving, and we’ll probably continue with high selling pressure as winners of new major grants fund their operations. still believe we’ll get a pump at halving, but’ll be short lived. we have a lot of bag holders that’ll probably dump as we hit critical levels. honestly looking for better performance as emissions become more “normalized” after the 2nd halving. also, we still have no serious outreach. bright spot is twitter’s less hostile now that we have some shills posting there… but that’s not going to be enough to deal with high inflation, bagholders, and major grant winners. my gut tells me MGWs will be dumping hard to fund their startups/companies.

wow, just making clear that i did not hack keks’ account, lol, no matter it sounds like one of my posts from the past…

@kek

“Changing Zcash supply curve to 3% yearly after 2020 halving”

Unfortunatly the majority didn’t see the impact of inflation and what a big issue this is actually and will be the next years. The inflation rate is the biggest ZEC “bug”.

[eth03]

What I have trouble understanding is if its inflation, then why did it reach an ATH of almost 900USD in the first week of January 2018 with the same inflation rate. My conservative estimate indicates that during this upcoming BTC halving, ZEC has no good reason to not reach that same ATH it did in January of 2018. I can’t see a good reason why it would not since inflation rate was the same then as it is now up until later this year and all the other fundamentals behind it have only gotten stronger. I am saying this as an opinion and welcome feedback.

[boxalex]

@eth03

What I have trouble understanding is if its inflation, then why did it reach an ATH of almost 900USD in the first week of January 2018 with the same inflation rate.

Just some points with some elementary examples:

1.) You should have in mind that daily new ZEC are mined. The inflation rate is the same but the meanwhile & todays circulating ZEC is much higher now.

2.) I think a compariston which some kind of “bubble” or artificial peek is not a good comparison in general. There will always be peeks and spikes, but i never would refer to this as “real value” or “real price”, but that’s just me of course. They are good points for sale for good traders, that’s it.

3.) Demand versus supply is lower. The more supply you have (mined, dropped) the more demand is needed to compensate the inflation rate. The more demand versus supply the higher the price, the less demand and higher supply the less the price, it’s actually very simple.

4.) Until early 2018 ZEC was still mined with GPU’s all around the world. After the introduction of Asics the GPU community got forced out of mining, resulting in a loss of about 100.000 active adresses per day. Further, the mining farms are very centralized in China due the lower power costs there, resulting in a much higher competition among miners, resulting in an additionally ZEC sell pressure to cover maintaince costs (electricity/new hardware/etc.)

5.) Many compare the ZEC inflation rate with BTC’s inflation rate, but while on paper it’s the same in the real world BTC has a huge advantage as it has passed already more halvings than ZEC did, hence i call the choosen inflation rate for ZEC at the beginning the worst decision made for Zcash. This is important as unfortunatly BTC is a more stable investment for now due the way lower inflation rate.

@eth03

I can’t see a good reason why it would not since inflation rate was the same then as it is now up until later this year and all the other fundamentals behind it have only gotten stronger.

I think the above are 5 good reasons that explain why ZEC will continue at least 4 1/2 years to struggle with price IF not much more demand is created somewhere somehow somewhat. I could list about another 20 more minor reasons why i think ZEC will struggle pricewise the next 4 1/2 years but it would get a too long post which i try to avoid lately.

@eth03

I am saying this as an opinion and welcome feedback.

That’s fine and this topic is created to share opinions. Mine is only an opinion as well, i could be totally wrong as well. What i’am absolutly sure is that there will be no new ATH the next 4 1/2 years, even nothing close to that.

The major coronovirus issue and economic crisis worldwide resulting from it won’t help either. The negative impact will be huge in my opinion. That’s it for today

[Anton1]

I think you do not take into account everything, if the demand increases, then despite the release of new coins, the price will go up, because the volume of already issued coins will play into the hands of buyers, the more coins on the market the less the percentage of new coins issued per day from the total number, a simple example with monero, with the number of coins much larger than zec, it still came out on capitalization and high cost on a par with other coins. You need to understand the capacity of the market, if the market is ready to inject capital in the amount of say 5 billion in zec, the price will be higher than the last peak.
Another example: Dash at its peak of 1550 dollars per coin had a capitalization of 12 billion with the number of coins a little less than 9 million. at that time, this figure increased from a small cost( about 10 dollars) and came to 71( with a minimum of 40 after the pump) , while the crypt without capacity on real use can be any price.
The only task is to find interest in zec for capital, and Yes the division in half will not be such an interest, because the number of buyers will not increase, everyone is mistaken because they think that a decrease in output will push the price, although this is not the case,
the price growth pushes and then buyers come and push it even higher, and then negative news will accelerate the decline (lack of investment for further development)
Therefore, if there are any agreements that will give impetus to the introduction of zec in the company or mass acceptance by people, they are very well hidden and they should spur growth, if they do not exist and everything that is announced for 2020 and will be done then no one will be interested in it, everyone is worn with anonymity as if there are many people who will use zec to achieve it, I do not know any, can you know?

[Autotunafish]

Federal Reserve Injects $168B, Greater Than Entire BTC Market Cap

[Anton1]

Who is there closer, tell them that you need to invest not in the economy but in zcash!

[Autotunafish]

Dip

[boxalex]

Bloody day today.
Seems i have some kind of 6th sense and don’t hold any crypto anymore since some weeks, but i feel sorry for all others that bought in at higher levels.
I guess this bloody trend will continue for some more months, maybe even half a year.

[local_miner]

[mistfpga]

wtf just happened? have I missed some major announcement?

[ChileBob]

ahhh… ahhhhhh… aaahhhhhhh… CHOOOOOOOO!!!

(nope, nothing going on here)

[mistfpga]

but why today?

and I did wonder, ever since the inception of bitcoin, if you cant do “quantitive easing” - then what happens in situations like this. still 25 - 45% off all coins in 12 hrs…

The whole market for all coins was worth about 180,000,000,000 GBP at about 2am utc 12 hours later it is worth 130,000,000,000 - 50 billon in 12 hours?

really this is just corona? something else must have happened? has china shut off their ASIC plants due to not being able to make electricity? is it supply chains? the zec network hasrate has been really strange over the past month or so, to the point where it is so erratic that “something is up” and I feel this could be a good time to go over the "miners just process transactions, and it will always be slightly economically viable for them) - take any 7 day period over the past month and compare it to any other period.

So far my only logical conclusion is rolling blackouts.

[phakov]

Ima start stocking up for the winter…

…I hope folks were expecting this when it hit ~70USD recently…

[ChileBob]

Rolling blackouts? Its a bit early for that level of disruption, interesting thought.

The diff algo is responsive, recalculates every block & can resolve large changes within 20, so not really concerned. If that kinda thing happens we’ll be in way better shape than BTC.

Much more likely just market panic, $900 million liquidated BTC longs on Bitmex is the definition of ‘having a bad day’.

[mistfpga]

@ChileBob

Rolling blackouts? Its a bit early for that level of disruption, interesting thought.

• Coronavirus cuts China’s greenhouse gas emissions by a quarter | The Independent | The Independent

idk. I don’t think they have the power. here is a bit of a better example, I was going to type up a full post for this, but here are the images in a half done state.

What is going on in the red box?

A little closer detail

I cannot find another single point where the hashrate has gone like this. maybe I just haven’t looked hard enough. these points here might be where outside factors could cause a similar issue

It is “D” I have never seen on the network before, and it looks like a potential chain split to me. (from my limited experience with my own dual zec setup - to see what network partitioning would actually look like.

long story short, bad, very bad.

so can anyone else have any idea what is causing this? my guess at electric was due to other coins seeming to be okay, for example: Monero seems okay, (but that is not asic and reliant on china) - bitcoin might be a bit screwed but their are supply chains outside of china for that. Ethereum are still gpu mineable, again not reliant on china.

idk. id love to hear any and all thoughts.

[ChileBob]

My bet for whats going on… mining farms tend to be large, unattended or under-attended infrastructure tends to go wonky quite fast. Could be power, could be network, cant do everything remotely & if rig-monkeys cant get to work. Dunno.

[mistfpga]

Sure,

but it is the same outcome, potentially two zec’s. is there anyone who knows abit more about this than me? maybe @sonya or @elenita would kindly bring this to the attention of the ECC and ZFND. Specifically a partition of the network between china and the rest of the world. I have no easier answers, maybe a pow fork to sha256 or other gpu, fpga and asic friendly algo.

@boxalex and @secparam I remember you have some work regarding attacks either through hashrate or voting. is this erratic hashrate something to worry about from that point of view? I know nothing. I am just very concerned by that hashrate. looks like lots of stuff is getting switched off for a day or two then back on, then back off. In another pic I have around here it looks very different when people switch off due to it being not economically viable for a while.

[boxalex]

I’am not sure, i’am a bit out of crypto business lately. I checked two other graphs for ZEC hashrate (see screenshots below) and i don’t see the same picture like the one posted in your screenshots.

Here my guesses anyway:

1.) Display/Visualitzation issue of the chart in your or my screenshots?
2.) In case your screenshots/charts are reliable my next bet would go to miners auto switching btw. coins on the equihash algo. At higher difficulty switching to other coins and coming back when difficulty is lower again. The faster block time and i guess, faster recalculation of the difficulty could make this “game” more interesting for miners.
3.) I have to lock it up. But i think at some times chinese electricity prices change up to the season we are in.Can’t remember if there is a difference in day/night electricity prices, but this could be a reason as well.

These are my 3 bets/guesses on what’s going on.