If ZSAs are delivered and move to PoS is complete: $1000+
If nothing is delivered and the community is still split on the purpose and direction of Zcash: $10
Rereading this thread from the very beginning is an indicator in itself
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The question isn’t (primarily) about the features, so much as it is about time and NGU. If all of the great L1 features don’t come to reality until 2026 (the current plan), we’ll risk being totally forgotten by then - arguably we’re already a forgotten project. Crypto moves at the speed of light and has the memory of a goldfish.
The market asks the question: Why should I buy and hold ZEC?
What features does PepeCoin have, that you suppose places it near the Top 40 with a 3 billion dollar valuation? Number Go Up technology and attention grabbing content.
Features are important, but they aren’t the means to the end (especially if they deliver at the wrong market cycle time). Many other factors go into the equation too.
We know that ZSAs and PoS will deliver, but what we don’t know is if they’ll deliver at the right time or if they’ll command enough attention to impact Zcash popularity!
Proof of Stake has been a 3 year research project, and isn’t likely to be completed for another 4-5 years. In my opinion, that long timeline puts a lot at risk.
PoS is a wonderful upgrade, but it is not a differentiator across the entire crypto sector. This is why the teams have to push out roadmap(s) with many additional themes beyond only PoS.
Price Speculation:
BTC bull market cycle high $195,000 about a year from now
ZEC bull market cycle high $450 also in about a year!
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interesting perspective, 450 looks to much to me though considered the past… I would expect 200-300 range is realistic
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Okay so NGU tech doesn’t exist. It’s very hard for me to take anything you say in your post seriously when you say that PepeCoin is “near the top 40 with a 3 billion dollar valuation” because it has NGU tech.
My $450 guess is only based on BTC at around $200,000
(If BTC doesn’t go that high, it would also put the ZEC ceiling a lot lower)
Then how else could you explain it? People think Pepecoin is gonna pump to ATH again next month. When I say NGU technology, I’m using figurative language to say people are only buying today because they believe the value is going to go higher next week, month, year
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Comparing zec to memecoins is apples and oranges their NGU tech has different requirements
meme coins are like buy a scratch ticket. They’re cheap, disposable, soon to be worth zero, and they might make you rich - fast
L1s require promises/hype, of adoption, tech breakthrough, partnerships, tx per sec etc etc. And also scarcity (perceived or real it doesnt matter)…
My price prediction through a bullish lense…
Recently we’ve seen an upwards break from a long term downtrend, timing nicely with the end of a brutal bear market and halving for both BTC and ZEC
$35 remains to be to most significant resistance, with price failing at that point YET AGAIN. I think there is enough of a positive short term outlook of news in ZEC and broader crypto to propel above this level. With the next major range being between $35 - $51 with some head winds at mid range, as previously was a support/resist flip at $43
The next key levels to me are $75 and $100 showing prior support and resistance.
Long term/cycle top $300 is the last line of defence for bears, so is a crucial price. Which it has failed twice on the monthly chart from the previous bull market. Seems like a logical top, however if people can get excited about zcash and the progress it makes in the next 12 months, then price can really explode from there, have a period of euphoria/bubble then be a base of support or new minimum price going forward
ZEC vs BTC is another story all together
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Technical analysis voodoo: crack coaine edition (The Tom Demark Sequential 9 (TDS 9)) is a leading indicator which identifies a turning point in a price trend for a security. It does this by running count of price bars to gauge trend exhaustion.
It is a counter-trend tool that aims to solve the problem of several TA indicators that are profitable during trending markets but perform very poorly in ranging markets. TDS 9 can be used in any timeframe and in any market conditions.
zec/btc has had 9 yearly candles. This is the last year of going down only!
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All time low against BTC is 0.000388. That held against a retest. (Way) Too early to say if it will hold for all time. This could be the big turning point we’ve been waiting for. IMO we should try to defend that number with everything we have. If it holds, everything changes for the better. Devfund orgs should put everything they have into defending that low.
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A great show of commitment to zcash would be a buy back of ZEC at these lows
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#Defend388 if this all time low isn’t defended… well … let’s not find out.
I have strong conviction that depreciating transparent transactions would have a far greater positive impact (in the long run) on ZEC prices than a ZEC “buyback” of any size. Ask yourself why are BTC and ETH on the balance sheet if Zfnd and ECC believe in the relative valuation and future of ZEC.
My opinion remains the same even if the transparent tx depreciation were combined with donating the entire dev fund to a privacy focused non profit, sunsetting the dev reward, shuttering the Zfnd and ECC and relinquishing the Zcash trademark). In that scenario I believe developer quality and quantity would improve as volunteers would emerge help Zcash without being limited by restrictions currently being imposed by the trademark holders.
Years have passed and Zfnd and ECC remain the greatest enemies to Zcash development, adoption and price appreciation.
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I bought a bit more with cash at around 23$. Now we might go below 20$ again. I am speechless. I’d like to cry thinking that my entry point was 1+ year ago at 44$. 
DCA so far has not being a great success.
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The consensus mechanism needs to be fixed so that issuance is decentralized.
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Step 1: halt all development with immediate effect.
Step 2: ask @adjychris to put together the greatest marketing/pr campaign ever (no strings attached). Think Kony 2012. And go all in with every penny we have.
Step 3: simultaneously ask Zooko to get in touch with all his connections (Snowden, Vitalik, CZ, Satoshi, etc) and ask them to tweet about Zcash only for one day.
Step 4: ZEC goes parabolic.
Step 5: now ECC, ZF, ZCG can resume development and fund whatever they need with ease and take as long as they want. No pressure.
Step 7: now QEDIT & SL can join us and get a slice of the dev fund. With immeeeeeeiate effect.
Everyone’s happy.
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as long as entities like the zcash foundation prefer to hold BTC and ETH above ZEC there won’t be a pump in price.
if WE don’t believe in holding ZEC, why should new investors do so?
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Everyone banging on about the two orgs not holding ZEC. To be frank I don’t see that as an issue, what I see as an issue is the fact that this community is small. Extremely small. I follow Zcash religiously 24/7. Trust me when I tell you we’d struggle to line up 100 active members (excluding devs and dev fund recipients).
THIS NUMBER IS THE ABSOLUTE ROOT CAUSE OF OUR ISSUE. DEMAND FOR ZEC “BY OTHERS” NEEDS TO GO PARABOLIC.
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Price plays a crucial role in building communities, that’s a fact.The Zcash community is dropping in size same as the price. Like many others here, i have been with ZEC from day 1. But bad decisions were made by leaders and now we are in this not so easy situation.
Comparing the Devs and Talent in Zcash with other crypto projects and then looking at the price and sentiment that are both at an ATL is shocking. How will we fix that? We need to get the price moving up if we want to get this thing growing, otherwise we will end up without a community and only engineers and scientists that sell the ZEC that they get from the protocol for USD.
also one thing to note, ECC is not looking to sell ZEC for other Investments anymore, the only remaining issue here is the foundation.
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Demand will not increase if the orgs that govern do not hold the asset.
No one invests in a business where the founders themselves have no conviction.
New entrants are liquidity for miners and governance orgs.
Just buy Zcash later on when it gets, if ever, derisked.
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i wouldn’t buy more ZEC myself and would never ever recommend anyone to buy ZEC with how things are going currently. i did that before, and everyone that followed my advice is hating me for that now! they could have bought any other coin and would be in profit now if they would not have listened to me! i learned from this mistake, and won’t do that again.
once all the dev fund orgs carry on the same vision with “all in ZEC” i will start to think about these decisions again.
we should also keep that in mind when we are voting for the dev fund this year and i expect that the foundation will receive a smaller amount of ZEC than in the last years due to their decisions.
we, the community, the holders and investors in ZEC are funding the foundation! i am certain that all the holders of ZEC would agree with me that we don’t want them to invest the ZEC that they receive into BTC and ETH.
BUT DO THEY CARE? NO
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