Price Speculation

you know that most cryptos are up a lot since the last 6-12 months?

Zcash has only gone down this time, and in previous bulls it has also underperformed compared to every other coin on the market…

“mot speculators” are not going for Zcash (anymore), i talked to a lot of people at crypto conventions over the last years and i don’t remember a single one that said he would buy ZEC again.

and now it’s even worse with all the regulatory uncertainty… and those that do not care about that have already gotten brainwashed by other crypto projects.

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Like I already said above, the question is When/ Where.

ZEC might only get back up to $100 during the peak of the next crypto bubble.
Or it might go up to $1,500 (nobody knows what will happen)
this is the “where”

The when
maybe ZEC stays stuck under $30 the entire year of 2024, before catching up with the pack.
Or maybe the Brave/ Zcash/ Filecoin collaboration goes live in Summer 2024 and the ZEC price triples in the months that follow.

Again nobody knows - this is a speculators game

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I do not see the Brave or Filecoin integration as such a bullish factor for ZEC.
if that is the most promising thing to look for in 2024 we won’t make it back anywhere near $100.

in previous cycles there was larger funds, investors and marketmakers that backed Zcash. but these days are long gone and so is the bullish sentiment that was once there for ZEC.

i won’t sell my coins that i bought over the years, that loss is already accepted! but i do not see new money coming into the ecosystem, because there is no incentive.

and everyone is carrying that pic in their mind that the orgs behind it are selling ZEC every month and even swap it for other coins like BTC and ETH. or they prefer to keep their other investments and continue to sell ZEC.

i sometimes feel like the Leaders of these Orgs do or did not think what kind of image this creates for ZEC investors, it’s the worst marketing campaign that they started themself. It’s just sad!

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Zcash’s volume on Binance in the last 24h was:

1.37M USDT
1.27 BTC and 2.95 ETH

and the orgs still sell ZEC, would this add up to anyone that is looking to invest in ZEC?

Zcash volume is ~ 40M USD
~75% of the total volume is wash trade.
real volume ~10M
Miners and orgs sell on average ~3K Zec/day → ~70k USD

100K do not move the market. 0.5 M yes.

There is a steady selling pressure coming from old investors/miners.

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i think that the real volume is less than 10M in USD and BTC

and out of that 10M volume, how much of that are real buyers and holders of ZEC?
if you take away the bots, the traders and the Miners and Orgs?

why is the price only moving downwards if the issuance is only around 70k a day?

Could it be because there are no new buyers? Or is it because the old holders are exiting their bags? something does not add up here

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As I said, the old holders/miners are selling and the 75% already includes bots

the market is dead, that’s the problem here. and i don’t see a way to convince new buyers to buy into this. ZERO

we need to accept that we failed to deliver to the investors (those that paid your salary) then we need to change and apologize to all the investors that have lost their savings because they believed in this project!

and only then we can start to create something new. there won’t be another hundreds of millions of new users in the next years, the main audience are those that are already invested into crypto. we need to convince them that this is not just a science project that goes down in value only.

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Like I’ve been bantering about for months.

The ECC and ZF are currently designed to push down the price of ZEC - in spite of how much damage they’re causing to Zcash brand perception/ adoption/ ecosystem financial strength.

The two big orgs have designed themselves to damage ZEC - this is why I’m vocally calling for an end to the Block Rewards in November 2024.

Price speculation:
The halving + eliminating block rewards = ZEC outperforms its crypto peers in 2025

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You don’t need to.
It’s not a Tupperware pyramid schema.

If the product is good people will use it and buy it.

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I will say this for the first time in 6 years, but after Zeboot it is obvious to me that ZEC will not show anything outstanding in the next bull rally. All the priorities outlined are directed again to a long build that needs development funds. Funds will perform exactly the same as before.
It seems, there are very few long term holders of ZEC among developers, and Zcash is mainly a means of paying for labor. Minor investors are on the sidelines of decision making and their voices will not be heard. ZEC will be a very valuable asset, but not in the next 5 years. Most likely the accumulators in the form of DCG will continue to drive ordinary people out of the project. It is especially frustrating and cynically that most of these ordinary people were in Zcash because of good beliefs and are fans of the idea of cryptocurrency. However, not everyone can live their beliefs for long without any benefit to their own lives. Alas.

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Well said.

i was hopeful a major change would come out of ZeBoot. If there is one, it looks like possiblly the funding will go towards a common vision. otherwise, It’s very hard to tell if the priorities will change as it relates to focusing development on things that will give people a reason to hold ZEC. To me it sounds like ZEC is fiat is still the main belief because a Venmo like function, would be great for a single wallet with stablecoins and staking for yield. but it’s very far down the list of priorities. hopefully they will not waste more money on trying to educate customers because people already know what they want from a currency for day to day spending. it’s stability.

As you rightly point out the only people who have gotten any personal gain and continue to gain personally are the managers and developers. And ZEC holders pay (and have not got any monetary gain or objective voice in the project)

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I feel the opposite. For our part, you’ll see less talk, more delivery. We’re moving with a sense of urgency.

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Thanks Josh! I would gladly prefer to be wrong, and for Zcash to have incredible success directly in the near future.

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Four years ago today, one ZEC was worth about $70

Today one ZEC is worth $21.00

Who would like to share their guesstimate about the value of one ZEC on Feb 5, 2028?!

Cheers to all that wrapped up the Zeboot effort, I see a lot of good methodology and outputs. The only discouraging part of the event, is that it appears nobody noticed the 800 pound gorilla in attendance.

Going after the TAM currently owned by PayPal, CashApp, Zelle, ApplePay, et al global equivalents is nothing shy of a Declared Moon Mission by the ECC.

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That’s not the plan. You missed the context. I’ll try to post more later today or sometime this week.

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how is it even possible this amount of holders?
comparing Zcash to a 27,000,000 users App(Brave)

(coincarp rich list)

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most/many Brave users down hold BAT

and not all Zcash addresses belong to different people, 1 person can have a lot of addys,
and some are old or lost wallets, etc

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alts look good!!

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