Radical “to the moon” thread

Attempt to find a pattern why the ZEC/BTC prices goes down and down:

I tried really a lot comparison to find a pattern which might be related to the BTC price, sharing the results that made some sense here. BTC price is always the filled graph, the other indicator is always the red line.

1.) First one i checked is the Active Adresses versus BTC price one.

Analysis: Prior to June/July 2018 we see a stable active wallet count. I think there is no doubt this was the GPU community. The active wallets count kept pretty steady and stable, no matter the BTC price even in this period has fallen. After the introduction of Asics the Active Adresses count droped extremely. This extreme drop seem to have stopped or leveled out at ~ Novemember 2018. Since than the low active adresses count is about stable.

Conclusion: As said allready, the drop in Active Adresses is due the loss of the gpu community, no doubt even on this one. It seems the Active Adresses do NOT have any direct impact on the BTC price as bevor and later BTC levels have fallen/risen without having bigger changes in the Active Adresses count. Currently we see a slightly increase of active wallets and even on new wallet adresses. This could be people transfering funds from transparent to shielded adresses and/or new mining pools. No garantee on this one. Just a possible explaination.

However, i’am pretty sure analzying these charts that the Active Adresses do NOT have an impact on the ZEC/BTC price.

2.) Second one that made sense is the inflation rate versus ZEC/BTC price:

Analysis: After January 2018 we have a pattern which wasn’t the case in 2017 and prior.

Conclusion: I think there is quiet a very close relation btw. inflation rate and the ZEC/BTC price. Makes of course even some sense and it’s one of the comparisons i knew it would give us exactly this result as it’s just logical that without having a proportional increasing demand the price will follow the inflation rate. Only the same or higher increasing rate of demand could counter that price is following the inflation rate.

3.) Mining Difficulty versus ZEC/BTC price:

Analysis: I admit this one surprised me absolutly. I didn’t await to find a pattern here but obviously we have a pattern here that seems closely related to the ZEC/BTC price.
We can see that in June the difficutly begun to raise instantly. We know this happens due the delivered Bitmain Asics than back. Interestingly the higher the difficulty growths, the lower the ZEC/BTC price gets after this. Especially after August/September 2018 we see a sharp increasment in hashrate and as well a sharp price fall. Even more interesting is the 2nd graph which shows how the difficutly spikes again in April 2019 leading immediatly to another ZEC/BTC price fall.

Conclusion: In my opinion this is the most interesting graph of all. While many believe that a higher hashrate and thus a higher difficulty leads automaticlly to more value of the network and logically to the project/coin this seems not be the case at Zcash. I admit that this one really shocked me somehow as i did not await to see whatever pattern here. Me or others may analyse this further to find the reasons behind this strange pattern but it seems to be clear that the higher the difficulty the lower the ZEC/BTC price.
Having in mind that daily new ZEC worth about $400,000-450,000 are mined which again is about ~5-10% of our real daily volume (estiminated) it makes sense that the mining factor has a bigger impact on price while we continue to have such low volumes. Or in short. the higher the real volume the smaller the impact would be. However, i’am not sure that the common used conclusion that a higher hashrate/higher difficulty leads to more value, hold true in our case.

I wasn’t able to find ANY other pattern or indicator other than these 2, inflation & difficulty. None other parameter gave a pattern as a result. It’s worth observing IF the next difficulty spike will lead again to a ZEC/BTC price drop.