Zcash will be a big bloodbath within the first 2-3 years

No chance. At 1 dollar per ZEC I would buy ZEC in quantities that would literally affect the supply and demand ratio, and if the last three weeks have shown me anything, it's that other people are a lot faster to part with their money than I am. It will go low, but it won't get close to 1 dollar.

It won't go under 1$.
But it might end up around 10$ price.
At least for next few years. Then it might slowly start to grow up in price.

Doesn't Cryptonite based coins offer same privacy levels as this zcash?

a fair value would be 0.30 - 0.50 USD at the moment.

Ridiculous. You clearly haven't even thought about this.

At 0.3 dollars per ZEC you could buy every ZEC produced for 3BTC per day. You think that in the whole entire world there's less than 3BTC of new money going into ZEC each day?

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If there is an unlimited supply of new Zcash , which is true because you can fork it and just use the tech itself.

and there is also Monero, Dash (…), Bitcoin itself with better privacy in the future.

…we can make a bet and look at the price again in 5 and in 10 years :wink:

that doesnt look like a good investment to me (in the long run)

@LiteCoinGuy You have a fundamental misunderstanding of the ZEC supply and forking in general.

No, this is completely wrong. There is a fixed supply of 21 million ZEC, just like Bitcoin. The block reward will halve every 4 years, also like Bitcoin.

Forking Zcash has nothing to do with ZEC supply. You can create a fork, like ZClassic, which will create new crypto units (i.e. ZCL), but not additional ZEC. You could do the same thing with Bitcoin. However, creating a new fork of Bitcoin isn't going to magically create new units of BTC, it's going to create units of a totally new and separate crypto currency.

buddy, i know this stuff. iam in crypto since 4 years but a coin with only 1 benefit, which isnt even unique in the future, will not prevent another decline in price.

i dont say that Zcash has no value, but far below 60 USD (and it was worth several thousands at the beginning ^^!)

the picture speaks for itself.

In the next 24 hours 7200 coins will be mined and that 5.16% of the total market cap. (inc founders cut)

To maintain the current price the market will have to expand by $427,000 every day. This is unlikely at the moment, so the price is going to go down in the short term. (Current market cap price of $8.272m)

1/1/2017 the same 7200 will only be 2.067% of the total market cap. The market cap would be $20m at today's prices.
1/7/2017 0.435% The market cap would be $98m at today's prices. (mining cost from today at low estimate $21m)
1/1/2018 0.242% The market cap would be $176m at today's prices. (mining cost from today at low estimate $39m)
1/1/2019 0.1284% The market cap would be $332m at today's prices. (mining cost from today at low estimate $76m)

None of those market caps are likely at those time points (but not impossible), so the price will probably be lower.

So at some point we should see the price hit its lowest point and then start a slow recovery. This is assuming people still have confidence in the currency

My estimated cost of the total network hash rate of 45,000 Ksol/s would cost very roughly $150,000-$100,000 a day in electric. Taking into account some big differences in electric cost around the world and a mixture of setups, not all are going to be the most cost effective GPUs. (The cost of the network won't be static as the number of miners can change very fast, so we can only make very basic estimations based on the current network)

So to maintain the current network hash, the value of the total market cap needs see average daily gains of at least the mining cost + 20% over the next year or some miners/investors will be running at a loss in the short term, if they are bag holders.

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Isn't it contradictory to show a graph based on the first zcash month and make conclusions on whether it is a good or bad investment on the long run ?....

What about this view:

Mining zcash today costs this much because of mining efficiency and power cost.
If nobody wants to buy at this price (that covers the above mentioned cost, I(the miner) don't sell.

Isn't that fixing the price today(1 month after the launch) ?

It does. Although I have indulged you in the past, this picture says "I am a troll".

You're wrong about three things:

  1. Botnet mining has essentially zero cost. You should remember that this is still a CPU-friendly mining.

  2. Mining follow markets, not the otherwise. If price continues decrease, more people would be forced out of mining to reduce difficulty.

  3. It doesn't matter if miners sell or hold. If the sell, they're just miner. If they hold, they also perform the role of investor by buying from themselves with the cost of their mining operation.

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there are roughly 185.000 Zcash at the moment, which is nothing. within the next few years there will be millions! so it is not hard to guess where the price will go. this is market 101.

In the next few years price will be at least 1Btc/Zec

Zcash Nears $40 in Ongoing Price Decline

http://www.coindesk.com/zcash-nears-40-price-decline/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CoinDesk+%28CoinDesk+-+The+Voice+of+Digital+Currency%29

@Ivcelmik83
i will bet 1 BTC against that statement :wink:

Really surely you forgot to 101 the fact as more people need zcash the more they buy also people will invest in zcash which will take millions out of circulation and demand will push up the price, a good business model to follow is bitcoin which has taken years to become what it has, zcash has a chance to follow that path but we are two months in for Gods sake!!?

i doubt there will be that much demand. that is my point.

at global trade volume of about US 1m a day it is very easy to push the price in any direction. I woudl not be surprised if some wales let the price drop to their desired level by gradually collecting those coins and then once accumulated all those coins create additional demand on low volume in market. this naturally will let the price explode. We have ridiculous low daily trade volume. perfect ground for such games. SO I AM LOOKING AHEAD TO A LOT OF VOLATILITY FUN

Then if u don't belive in this coin sell all u got and move to another coin/forum.

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@LiteCoinGuy That's rich coming from someone who likes Litecoin, unless that's supposed to be a joke. Why would anyone want to use Litecoin instead of Bitcoin?

At least Zcash brings zero-knowledge proofs to the table, which definitely gives ZEC utility and potential value. Yes, ZEC price will go down unless the market capitalization grows, that's basic math. But it's still a better bet than Litecoin, which has little to no technological innovation over Bitcoin.

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