Price Speculation

Lol, thought the same as soon as i saw Verge/XVG with 29%, lol. Total joke.

Might be an interesting general read for some (it’s not related to Zcash), but sharing here as it has some interesting info in my opinion.

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I have always preferred the advice of aspiring individuals. :stuck_out_tongue:

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Since ZEC has supported ASICs, prices have fallen all the way. For a long time before this, the price of XMR was always about 70% of ZEC, and now XMR price is already higher than ZEC. Congratulations to the zcash Foundation.(Give you the middle finger)

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$ 0.97 difference… ‾_(ツ)_/‾

There is a thread for price discussion, feel free to discuss there further: https://forum.zcashcommunity.com/t/price-speculation/

[Thread Moved]

The market is down across the board. ZEC is at $108. Where is the panda when we need him? Could use a little luck. Hoping that at the end of the month when the BTC ETF is approved prices will go back towards $10k for BTC and pull the rest of the market with it right now.

Personally wish I had the cash to buy up as much ZEC as can at the moment.

Valid reflection.
Sharing this image, Nasdaq and the dot com bubble:

.main-qimg-485a749a8d9e2c962dfef53823b90fbb

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every once in a while you encounter people who “get it”

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Here is yet ANOTHER person who wants to shout from the top of the forums that ASICS are the reason for the total decline of Zcash…

Here is a link to a post from 5 days ago

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I think a more proper comparison would be to look at the cryptos that forked and didn’t fork when ASIC’s starting mining on their networks.

@boxalex - his thread is useful:

I’m not convinced ASIC’s were not part of the reason, but I have not done a proper analysis. However, BTG has fared better than ZCash during this slaughter period we’re in now. ZER is faring well, too. Aion not so much. XSG is actually gaining value, and ZEL is holding on. BCI is flat, but no one is trading it.

I think the matter needs more investigation and careful analysis to make any claim about ASICs vis a vis price influence.

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If you believe ASICs are the reason for $ZEC price decline, i own 60% of a time share on a tropical planet in andromeda and i’m looking to airbnb it.

I agree, a deepth analysis would be interesting and i thought several times allready about it, but i’am failing to think about a honest objective mechanism/approach to do so.

I mean there are some problems like:

  • time frame applied
  • time frame in a bullish vs. time frame in a bearish market
  • bad/good news that temporary influence a given coin/price
  • lenght of the period, i mean the longer the period is the more accurate and of course reverse
  • versus what to compare? BTC? USD? USDT? ETH? all of them?
  • i personally would even compare it to hybrid POS coins that are on equihash algo to make it an even better analysis.
  • whatever not …
  • should volumne, market cap, similars added or is it only the pure price that matters?
  • many things i even didn’t thought about yet…

If anybody has a good formula and answers to the above i would be more than willing to join a team of volunteers that do the research, observation and analysis over time as it would be mostly too much for a single person to do it…

I’m not convinced in either direction and I don’t want to believe that just because there was a full moon last night and some of my cows were attacked by wolves means that every full moon wolves will attack my cows…

However, I think a careful analysis of values is needed to put the matter in clearer light. I think there are three distinct (mostly) periods for comparison: 1, the time from May 17 to ~Dec 22, 17, the “Massive Growth” period; 2, the next period from ~Dec 22 17 to when ASIC’s started to emerge in public (around the end of June 18), the “Value Blowout” period; 3, the “Post ASIC” period in which we are now. These three periods are potentially suitable.

It’s a complex question, though. I will say this at least: ASICs may or may not have hurt the value of ZCash, but allowing them onto the network - for whatever reason they gave - erased likely much of the goodwill the ZCash Company had with their Community as a whole, and probably all of the goodwill with their miners.

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Interesting. The whale special?

I am and I claim that not forking away decimated the community numbers that supported Zcash. I also did an analysis few weeks back how PoW coins were backed by electricity needed to mine them, and by switching to ASICS this value decreased quite a lot.

Zcash spread like crazy with word from mouth to mouth, people mined with their existing cards, then bought rigs and started investing. How many non crypto friends can you convince to invest in chinese machines with 2 months warranty ?

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It’s 6 months but whatever man.

Let’s see where zcash will be in a year and all the other coins that have forked. Stop the FUD.

THIS THREAD IS PRICE SPECULATION

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Hmm, used to be 2 months, I see they changed it now, probably because new batches cannot be overclocked. Increase in difficulty will help zcash price, hopefully new batches get released soon, so miners stop selling and start waiting for better price.

Blocks of 200 ZEC that close to Sapling activation could make life interesting.

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@johnwisdom I agree that we should try to keep the ASIC debating in the ASIC thread and not get bogged down with it in this Price Speculation thread. Let’s talk about ASIC mining

As long as @Trololino makes thier ASIC points relevant to possible effects on price, they are fine here too. ASIC vs GPU arguments should be in the ASIC thread.

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I don’t have analytical facts to prove ASIC’s f***ked ZCash, but my belief is that they have not been any help. Miners were surely hosed, however, and their excuses not to fork - however valid or not - were poorly contemplated. Besides, ZCash is in the toilet anyhow right now.

My hunch has been all along is what someone posted above with the Dot.com crash example, points I raised before crypto shit the bed. We’re in a new era where only the strong survive. Zcash will be one of the survivors for the long term if they don’t screw it up.

I’m feeling like it’s just best to wait 10 or 15 years for things to start popping and not pay it any mind until then…

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