Price Speculation

[Trololino]

Well a little disclosure on what he was working on since April (Gemini launch) would be nice. I know he doesnt have to, but it would be nice.

[ChileBob]

I imagine there are restrictions on ‘juicy news leaks’ that limit what he can talk about, especially if it could affect price.

[phakov]

Getting ZCash listed on another exchange is irrelevant to me since it only serves to feed the speculators. Getting Suzie Soccer Mom to use ZCash to buy yoga pants is more important to the long term.

[Shawn]

Maybe Josh will be around for the AMA today, you guys should stop by and ask these questions there too. Technical AMA w/ Zcash team December 14, 2018 noon PST

[joshs]

Hi! Thanks for surfacing this to me @Shawn. Hi @Trololino and @kek - fair questions / criticisms and asks. I’ll be around for the AMA and happy to answer direct questions. But more than that, I think I should more broadly share what we’ve been working on, what we’re seeing from the market and where we are headed (Zcash Co). I’m wondering if I should do that here or perhaps a long form blog post would be better? I think I’ll do the latter and then post a link here either later today or early next week. We’re also planning to start quarterly updates via livestream in Q1. Your feedback and questions are welcome.

[joshs]

Curious as to the “wealthy countries” qualifier. Can you elaborate?

[revo5]

…and we are under 50$

[joshs]

Actually, I am going to share more detail but will need more time to pull it together into a post for the community. It may take me through next week.

[ChileBob]

…since you asked

I’d like more posts here about things that are happening.

Doesn’t have to be long, detailed or polished, a paragraph or two would be enough.

[Trololino]

@joshs

Curious as to the “wealthy countries” qualifier. Can you elaborate?

Yes actually. Zcash should push to be more popular in countries like USA, France(riots these past month), Germany, Japan, Korea etc.

What google trends is showing us:

If Zcash is to be any kind of store of value, investors with value must come, not 3rd world countries. I am sorry but that is just the way it is.

[ChileBob]

Yup, agree, but exchange support is useful.

Here in Chile we have Buda and a lot of Venezuelans who send money home, if they offered ZEC that’d help - right now they can only buy BTC/BCH/LTC/ETH.

[tloriato]

December 14, 2018 - Weekly Update

• Another ATL

[joshs]

Agree. There are a number of market forces at play. This downward trend is true of all crypto, not just Zcash. Everything is highly correlated currently. I’ll include details in the post but we have spent considerable time working with institutional investors and family offices to ramp Zcash and build liquidity. Retail is way down, but Circle, Galaxy and Cumberland all started trading / market making Zcash this year. Zcash is now a top 5 coin in trade volume on OTC desks. My friend at Circle (who runs OTC) is telling me there are a lot of inquiries but many are waiting for certain triggers (for all coins).

Many of the smaller funds are still concerned with the current Zcash inflation rate and waiting until the mining rewards halve in October 2020. The big desks are necessary for building the rails and liquidity needs to help move Zcash from a speculative asset to a viable long-term store of value.

Japan is currently an issue and we are working with regulatory counsel to address the concerns by the most significant SRO. Currently all privacy-protecting coins in Japan are banned from exchanges (Monero, Dash, Verge, Zcash, …)

[joshs]

Btw, just call me out if you have question so that I get a notification. Unfortunately, I don’t have the cycles to read through all the various threads, all the time. I’m happy to answer questions.

[vgm]

@vgm

Don’t despair guys and gals, trading in the financial markets can be the most vexing experience. The key to success is to have long-term goals and to stick by them during market fluctuations.

Remember to think in terms of years and not months. If it happens to take years before ZEC beaches $700 again, and we see sub $100 prices in 2019, then you should plan to accumulate in stages over the coming year. Scale in at $120, $100, $80, $60, $40… It’s unlikely that ZEC will ever drop below $30, but if it does and you don’t buy will you be kicking yourself years from now?

Stay positive and think about the future.

@vgm

Fundamentally, I’m one of the biggest believers in Zcash, but the current market doesn’t give a damn about fundamentals. I think anyone who expects a quick turnaround is headed for disappointment. When BTC breaks below $5000, it’ll drag ZEC below $100. Do I think this is justified? No, but it’ll happen regardless of fundamentals because there are very few investors in the current market, only a glut of day traders who care more about price action and technical analysis

These declines weren’t hard to anticipate, but we’re getting awfully close to long-term lows. With the current market sentiment I believe ZEC will continue to drop alongside BTC, which I expect to bottom around $1700. Given ZEC’s overwhelming support at $30 coupled with the mining breakeven price sitting at around $30, I suspect that will ultimately be where things start to turn around. ZEC could see high $20’s with a terminal shakeout, but I’m scaling in at these prices with progressively larger buys. Anything below $30 is buying below the cost of production and $15 is approximately what the Founder’s Reward recipients paid per coin.

[aeonglacial]

I agree BTC’s floor is probably between 2800-1700. I called 40 zec back in july but dont think it dips below that at all. We’ve basically been consolidating in BTC for about a year and ETH longer.

Very insightful comments from @joshs, thank you!

I’m surprised no one remembers Japan banning privacy coins.

[boxalex]

@vgm

… BTC, which I expect to bottom around $1700. Given ZEC’s overwhelming support at $30 coupled with the mining breakeven price sitting at around $30, I suspect that will ultimately be where things start to turn around. ZEC could see high $20’s with a terminal shakeout, …

If prices go indeed down to these levels there won’t be any miners left. BTC mining at $ 1,700, just impossible. Same goes for ZEC at ~$20, not even talking about the new wave Asics that seem to be shipped these days…

Serously, a fall down to these prices will absolutly centralize mining to the few regions that have the very lowest electricity prices, for all others “game over!” …

[revo5]

I will buy a lot of zec, if it hits below 40$.

[Trololino]

@joshs

Many of the smaller funds are still concerned with the current Zcash inflation rate and waiting until the mining rewards halve in October 2020. The big desks are necessary for building the rails and liquidity needs to help move Zcash from a speculative asset to a viable long-term store of value.

Yes, the inflation is killing us, if only 30% of mining rewards were given to Holders instead of miners. Like a PoW/PoS hybrid. But we also need a lot more stores accepting Zcash. Now that Zcash is on coinbase, that should be possible right ?
Also can you maybe partner up with bitrefill , bitpay and maybe others who are trying to bring crypto payments to businesses.

[nurkubat]

Many of the smaller funds are still concerned with the current Zcash inflation rate and waiting until the mining rewards halve in October 2020. The big desks are necessary for building the rails and liquidity needs to help move Zcash from a speculative asset to a viable long-term store of value.

Did I understand it correct, ZCash will halving mining rewards in 2020?
oh…

My ROI is 2 Years at under 50$ price and current difficulty and hashrate.
it means I can recoup money only in 2 years, at December 2020…

If ZCash will do halving, it means my money recoup takes a little bit longer that 2 Years?..