Price Speculation


#6481

ROFLMMFAO!!!


#6482

Off topic. I rebalanced some of my bag and put it other baskets. Almost forgot how good small but steady gains feel like. Hope ZEC bottoms out soon.


#6483

Actually some alts are doing pretty good.


#6484

If the price action continues like this we might see zcash-XMR price flappening soon, they are both trading in $40s range and zcash is struggling to re-enter $50s again.


#6485

Only few of them, Ethereum and EOS I think


#6486

actually no, there are some coins that do pretty well the last 30 days:

  • TRX + 17.50%
  • BNB + 15.38%
  • HOT + 176%
  • REP + 48.17%

ETH with -30.67% and EOS with -13.35% are far way from top performing in the top 100 by marketcap…


#6487

Looks like $50 support is decisively broken. ZEC currently making new lows vs. BTC. No positive movement after the big patch announcement today was disappointing.

I warned others to expect $40 ZEC last fall, but I certainly didn’t expect it to happen so quickly.


#6488

I believe that the market in general will be extremely low the first part of the year despite positive predictions experts make.


#6489

Heartbreaking … ZEC from 3,191.93 to 46.29 … :sob:


#6490

Conclusion

Fundamentals show continuing progression and improvements of the ZEC privacy technology, with declining transactional usage and active addresses. Even with the integration of Sapling, shielded addresses are not being utilized by a majority of transactions. To some, the optional privacy of ZEC will always be vastly inferior to the default privacy of XMR. The inflation rate of ZEC will likely continue to quell any attempt at a long term bull trend, especially without any mainstream adoption.

Technicals suggest another potential end to the multi-month parabolic downtrend on the ZEC/USD pair. The daily Cloud and 200EMA, as well as the potential Adam and Eve double bottom, all point to a price target of US$100. Further breakdown of price would likely mean a test of the all-time low level around US$30. The ZEC/BTC pair has essentially been in a perpetual downtrend since June 2017, with no signs of reversal at this point in time as price continues to push all-time lows.

Full analysis:
https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/zcash-price-analysis-privacy-technology-development-continues


#6491

Litecoin goes up 10% when it announces MimbleWimble privacy adoption. Zcash continues to go down despite announcing a fix to a major bug, where is the community + zcash co + zcash foundation lacking? What can be done so that zcash hodlers do not become (empty)bag hodlers.


#6492

Just generally and my opinion on this: Fixing a bug shouldn’t have any impact on price as in first place a bug shouldn’t occur/happen at all. Leave alone such major counterfeit bug…

The price/market should/could only react to such bug fix if it was publicly known in the past that this bug excisted. This would have lead mostly to a bigger price drop, than you can of course, with a fix, await some gain back, but that’s it.


#6493

All crypto projects have bugs and they are fixed, bitcoin also had a major bug that was fixed before the news was made public, once bug is fixed, that is considered a small victory as the system becomes more secure. I’am thinking about the general sentiments in the crypto world towards zcash.


#6494

the system doesn’t become more secure, it’s as secure as it should be without a given bug in first place… (my interpretation what happens after a bug fix)

I’am well aware that bugs happen even in Bitcoin, Ethereum and elsewhere, but again, in my opinion a bug fix shoudn’t add to price expect it was lowered/dropped due the bug bevor. Just a principe personal thought. Now of course the crypto community can react different, absolutly possible.

Checking ZEC price for the last 24 hours i can’t see any impact that would backup the theory that a bug fix reflects in price gain.

About general sentiments in crypto towards zcash. I have my own theories why zcash keeps losing to BTC and made allready several posts about it. As nobody cares anyway and these are considered negative mostly i won’t repeat them for now …


#6495

I’m surprised there wasn’t a move in price - the details about the bug showcased the tech skill ZcashCo devs have and their integrity. Value is all about confidence, at least to me.

Anyway, it is what it is, which is old news - a horrible bug squished months ago that only four people knew about.


#6496

News about fixed bugs are good for the people that use the platform already. It’s not really groundbreaking for people outside the circle. Speculation drives price and that’s why LTC is pumping hard right now. The possibility of private transactions and the upcoming halving of the block reward. I’m sure ZEC will see his pump day when we’re near its halvening. Until then we look for some kind of support


#6497

hijacking here an article kek has posted in another topic, but fits perfectly in here into the “bug fix price relation” discussion.

2 interesting parts of the article:

  • … adding that they’ve seen no evidence of any counterfeiting (though [they admit they can’t be certain]
    ==> while we have a fix we have no 100% garantee no counterfeiting happened either. Someone could go even further and interprete this “no evidence” on different ways. Beginning from “we think it happened but have no evidence” up to “it’s impossible to have evidence” over to “we did “some” research and found no evidence” and many more. While i personally believe no counterfeit has happened, it’s still just a believe without any proof/evidence…

  • Assuming we trust the company’s confidence that leaving the bug unpatched for so long was safe since so very few people have the cryptographic expertise to exploit it, we’ve still got to ask: do the company’s actions here mean Zcash is actually centralized? … As for Zcash, Walch tweeted on Tuesday, If this process doesn’t demonstrate both centralization (4 people kept critical bug secret for MONTHS) and fiduciary-level trust reposed in these same people, I don’t know what would…”
    ==> 2 interesting points here. One that it took such long time to implent the fix (for whatever reason) which might be a record period when it comes to critical bug fixes and the next part is centralization.
    Having in mind the ZEC slogan is: “The future of money is digital, decentralized and private.” someone could argue the the decentralization part is highly missleading.

Just some thoughts while reading this article and related to price impact i’am more happy this doesn’t have a negative price impact after thinking about it than awaiting a positive price impact…


#6498

Interesting point. Its hard to ‘decentralise’ tech when only a very few have the skill/knowledge to understand it.

A similar argument could be made for the linux kernel, its open source etc but what percentage of people who use it can make sense of code and what percentage of them actually look at it? You end up with a very small number.


#6499

There should be more people knowing linux kernel than those knowing the internals of zero knowledge tech?


#6500

Indeed - but compared to the linux user base (everyone with an android phone, a router, lots of pc’s, most servers, etc) its a tiny percentage.

As for those that can do it, I asked and they’re both busy today.

I doubt that will ever change. High level tech skills are rare & seems to me the average IQ of the world is declining.

Anyway, just my two zats worth, 20 years of tech support may have made me cynical :joy: