Radical “to the moon” thread

I would have to disagree as there is no precedence for that. Whether or not you agree with the stock to flow theory for Bitcoin it has held up until now. The cycles have been getting longer for each halving though. If it holds this time the rally may not be until at least next summer and may last well into 2022, around a 600 day plus cycle this time. Zcash has the same emission schedule as Bitcoin. Maybe someone here can calculate what ZEC’s price would be under this model. I’m curious what it would show.

I expect a rally in price for ZEC after the halving more so than before since ZEC almost never gets “pumped”, but should benefit from less supply as next year rolls on. Even better while BTC is appreciating the ZEC price would increase even more as Bitcoins first cycle was around 200 days. Since the ECC is starting to protect its’ technical progress it should add to this. We also have the MGRC which can add more exciting projects to Zcash. We’ll see in about a year how it all plays out.

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But this is Zcash’s first halving - so doesn’t it make sense to look at Bitcoin’s first halving?

Yes. Bitcoin’s first cycle was around 200 days. I mentioned that in the second paragraph. I meant that Bitcoin would be going up next summer while Zcash should be too, so ZEC’s price would benefit from both cycles.

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Random note: trading volume on binance for USDT pair dropped from 40M to ~10M (trending down) in last couple of weeks.

I noticed too. It was more than Dash and Monero combined and now only more than either but not both. It could be defi is luring people away.

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Bitcoin revving its engines, prepare yourselves accordingly my friends.

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Did you notice that $36,000 was the most common call value followed by $34,000 at Xmas? I don’t expect it to go up that high this early but wouldn’t complain.

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Who doubted my thoughts? The channel was broken down and we are fighting for 33rd place, but as soon as the reward in November decreases and everyone who is waiting for the price increase will not see it, then we will see a real fall, and after it you can think about the moon, I think 50-80 is a good start. I am still waiting for 1000 for sale, unfortunately have to wait.
I was asked why I make bearish forecasts, and why do they make bullish forecasts on zec?

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in all fairness, things were a lot worse, were were behind doge. We are now double doge. It seems to be moving in the right direction.

I wont pretend to understand how the market forces work. But I do like your takes, whilst some find them a bit bearish and maybe even negative. I find them well reasoned, and it is really nice to have a different voice using thought out and articulated points. It gives me a nice balance.

boxalex used to be the “realist” Im glad you have stuck around and still keep posting your insights.

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I really miss the posts from boxalex. He was one of the first who did not write fan posts about how zcash would achieve fantastic success, but saw the real state of affairs. Now, unfortunately, after the sale, he writes very little. I am not a bear on zec, because all my coins are in place in my wallet, but I do not see the prerequisites for an increase in the price, on the contrary, I see that the project is going in the wrong direction, while some enter into strategic agreements zcash conducts conferences, trainings, promotions, that does not give it popularity. And this is very bad in my opinion, I think that the work that is covered should be in the background, because it is not the basis for development. Now there is a lot of news about the ban of untracked coins, and the fact that zcash will not fall under the ban is sheer nonsense, take the exchanges in Japan, for example, did zec manage to return to them? And so it will be everywhere if the regulator requires it, and no posts on Twitter will change this, at the legislative level ECC cannot defend the project. Although this is one of the points of their work. Now again the statement that in the next two years the project will be a well-deserved success, I hear this every year and are moving in the opposite direction. Many people notice that the displacement z2z has increased, but how many of them are useful displacements, I think it is almost equal to 0, in other words, there is no productive development, there is a quantitative one that will not give an impetus to adoption.
Seeing this and what I described earlier, I do not see any real solutions for development, we add to this financing, which depends on the price, and that’s it, the project is waiting for a crisis. Where is the entry to the asia market that has been talked about for more than 2 years, even the news was that personnel would soon be recruited, if people work, what has changed, zec dives in and does not think to do something else.
Everyone is focused on the grant system, this is a work process, he should not try to be the leader. When a company is undergoing changes, almost no one is aware of it, the company always highlights its product, if it does not, then this company closes.What will happen if a well-known company, instead of highlighting the product, says that they have created a department that will work on some problem, he will have so much money, such people will work, this does not affect sales at all, so they do not do that. Look at the price, the more news of this kind comes out the more the price falls.
The grant system will not solve the issue of development and adoption, because only the owner of the trademark can do this, the grants will develop local directions and improve the existing functions. What is to offer from ECC and the fund for the survival of the project, at the moment I can not name anything (everything is built on improving wallets, speed of work - but since the project has not yet been limited by performance, this will not affect in any way now), where the partnership is used , where is the functionality for the general public to assess the improvement with the current market?
When the issue of use is resolved, I wait for the price at the level of $ 1000-1200

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I only said wait until next summer where I hope it will be $200. The halving will mean nothing for awhile. It hasn’t meant nearly anything for Bitcoin thus far either but it will.

I agree with a lot of your points, but marketing is fairly pointless until the wallets are done. They waited a long time to even fund a developer for them. We are almost a year since Sapling and we still don’t have them ready. They could have marketed Zcash as a faster Bitcoin before but that is about it. Plenty of other projects could have said the same thing.

If we get Halo 2 and a few good MGRC funded projects and the price is still having troubles then Zcash will need something big to succeed like a major partnership, government approval etc.

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Can you add more details to this.

Honestly, I don’t understand this.

What details are you waiting for, this is not in the zcash project, i.e. it is not used by real people in any way, i.e. it does not do what it exists for. All that the project is doing now is that it contains the developers, no one knows how long it will last, everything that is covered at work is long-term prospects and financial and organizational issues that, in principle, do not bother anyone except people who will then receive money for the work, in other words, it was 100 percent budget, then it was divided into 2 parts and now into 3 and that there was no more money, what’s the point, only responsibility was divided for failures.
When the community begins to demand real results from the developers then things will move, and now the community, which consists of several dozen people, simply believes that everything will be fine with the project, but the fans cannot understand why this will be so. Dividing the bounty, halo 2, and other changes will not be successful because they do not solve the main problem of “why buy and store zcash”. Yes, it will be possible to use it better, but for example, how many currencies do you use while in your country and why one :)?
What problems can zcash solve as it stands:
Accumulation - no
Exchange - no, there are better candidates.
Payment - definitely not, because there is no confidence in price stability.
Anonymity - no first 3 items.
What ECC and the fund are doing to solve these problems is nothing. How long they will be the price sufficient to cover their costs, I think not for long. Wallets, yes, they were needed and were needed a long time ago, and why weren’t there who can answer? After all, without wallets, there is generally no chance of accepting which the ECC spoke about, how can you talk about imminent adoption and not pay attention to the main problem? If you understand what and why, then everything does not seem so strange anymore.

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looks like a new ATH

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Guys, who drains?

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Volume is back to normal. Sell off under low volume and buy back under higher volume. Whales buying from weak hands?

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I always thought this was a euphemism for market manipulation…

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Not really. It is up to the person if they sell or don’t. People in it for the long term HODL. I have not sold any in over 2 years. The ones losing money sell too early and panic. People are only supposed to invest what they can afford to lose. They need to do their research before jumping into crypto. Until it is regulated that is the way it will be. It looks like regulation is coming in the next couple of years though.

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Wont surprise me if ZEC is trading well over $100 before years end.

I lost all respect for this guy long time ago, he likes to pretend like he knows what hes speaking about… but in reality he is either very greedy or very very stupid.