Anton1, I am generally interested why you are so bearish on Zcash. For every bullish prediction, you are quick to post a bearish remark. Could you kindly share more of your POV?
Would love to know why Anton1 thinks ZEC rank would drop even further. Is it because more DeFi tokens are popping up?
- the rating will fall even more because this is what he has been doing for the last 3.5 years, and now there is no reason for this to change 2) Bullish predictions for zec is a bit of a thankless job, because that’s all I hear for 2019, 20 and now for 21, but I don’t see, this is the fundamental difference between those who believe and think. Soon the reward will decrease and zcash will not be able to slowly descend in the rankings due to the coins issued, the rate of decline will increase.
I don’t want people to see only that the price will rise soon, a second opinion is needed for analysis, so there will be fewer dissatisfied investors. Why the price will not rise: 1) there is no reason to buy and store zec, the whole company that goes towards the fact that there is such a coin and they are very good, and that’s it, people read this and go to buy what they really think is valuable. 2) a project that will never be ready, we are always waiting for a super network update, now everyone is waiting for halo2, recently they were waiting for the acceleration of secure transfers, mobile wallets and so on, all the changes did not give anything in the long term, we need to wait further, and in the meantime our line is 31 in the ranking, but it was 4, why?
It is vitally important for the project to receive investments in the form of buyers and holders, but what happens? All we have now is a small turnover with a constant price decline (look at the chart for the last 3.5 years). yes there was a pump at the beginning, but many projects recovered by 1/2 of the previous value, some 1/4 for zec this value is 1/14, too low, it is too difficult to attract future holders, which means the price will either be stable, which is bad because it will be lacking money to teams, or will decline against the background of news. What changes can change this, my opinion is none. I’m waiting for a functionality that will allow attracting not traders but holders and real users of the zcash project.
Because everything that zec now offers I can do faster and easier with usd or bitcoin or ethereum.
There is also a point of no return, when even positive news will not have any impact on investors. All projects that I know stabilized the cost per coin 2 months before the halving of the award, and began to grow slowly, this is due to the expectation of the pump that we have, the movement is the same as in other projects and there is no effect of halving.
-17 dash and -24 xmr
I think you perfectly captured the investor feeling towards ZEC. Regardless of ZEC ranking/marketcap in the near term, if we stick to original purpose & first principles - ZEC value will eventually be realized.
What does this mean? Are you saying drop in inflation rate pushes ZEC value even lower & at a faster rate? That seems unintuitive to me.
Now +450 thousand dollars of capitalization is mined per day, that is, in 2 days we get +1 million dollars or 15 per month, if we did not add about 200 million a year, then our capitalization would now be about 350 million dollars (if the issue of coins would initially be the same as it will be after halving) After November, we will be adding 7-8 million per month and about 100 per year at the current rate. The capitalization of zec will be overtaken by projects that will undergo a slight increase, which will reduce us even lower. Of course, I do not reject the option of growth in value, just if everything is the same, then the picture is as described.
A decrease in inflation will not affect the cost in any way, because as many coins have already been issued as now (almost), and all of them are participating in the auction just like now, why should the price rise? In your opinion, due to the decrease in output, someone will really want to buy out 10 million coins that no one is buying now, what should be the attractiveness? If each coin is worth its weight in gold, then of course they will redeem 10 and 100 as in the air. At the moment, the project is in superposition, it is needed by everyone (hypothetically) and no one (there is practically no useful application). Even with a convenient wallet, there is simply nowhere to use it per se. What is useful for ordinary people zcash, I do not see a use case other than speculation.
I bought zec for news that atomic exchanges with bitcoin will be implemented, I think that it was useful at that time, it’s a pity that they did not implement it in the end. The only chance to become a useful project, because another year of launching and that’s it, there is no money for payment and an expensive team will go to other projects.
I would have to disagree as there is no precedence for that. Whether or not you agree with the stock to flow theory for Bitcoin it has held up until now. The cycles have been getting longer for each halving though. If it holds this time the rally may not be until at least next summer and may last well into 2022, around a 600 day plus cycle this time. Zcash has the same emission schedule as Bitcoin. Maybe someone here can calculate what ZEC’s price would be under this model. I’m curious what it would show.
I expect a rally in price for ZEC after the halving more so than before since ZEC almost never gets “pumped”, but should benefit from less supply as next year rolls on. Even better while BTC is appreciating the ZEC price would increase even more as Bitcoins first cycle was around 200 days. Since the ECC is starting to protect its’ technical progress it should add to this. We also have the MGRC which can add more exciting projects to Zcash. We’ll see in about a year how it all plays out.
But this is Zcash’s first halving - so doesn’t it make sense to look at Bitcoin’s first halving?
Yes. Bitcoin’s first cycle was around 200 days. I mentioned that in the second paragraph. I meant that Bitcoin would be going up next summer while Zcash should be too, so ZEC’s price would benefit from both cycles.
Random note: trading volume on binance for USDT pair dropped from 40M to ~10M (trending down) in last couple of weeks.
I noticed too. It was more than Dash and Monero combined and now only more than either but not both. It could be defi is luring people away.
Bitcoin revving its engines, prepare yourselves accordingly my friends.
Did you notice that $36,000 was the most common call value followed by $34,000 at Xmas? I don’t expect it to go up that high this early but wouldn’t complain.
Who doubted my thoughts? The channel was broken down and we are fighting for 33rd place, but as soon as the reward in November decreases and everyone who is waiting for the price increase will not see it, then we will see a real fall, and after it you can think about the moon, I think 50-80 is a good start. I am still waiting for 1000 for sale, unfortunately have to wait.
I was asked why I make bearish forecasts, and why do they make bullish forecasts on zec?
in all fairness, things were a lot worse, were were behind doge. We are now double doge. It seems to be moving in the right direction.
I wont pretend to understand how the market forces work. But I do like your takes, whilst some find them a bit bearish and maybe even negative. I find them well reasoned, and it is really nice to have a different voice using thought out and articulated points. It gives me a nice balance.
boxalex used to be the “realist” Im glad you have stuck around and still keep posting your insights.
I really miss the posts from boxalex. He was one of the first who did not write fan posts about how zcash would achieve fantastic success, but saw the real state of affairs. Now, unfortunately, after the sale, he writes very little. I am not a bear on zec, because all my coins are in place in my wallet, but I do not see the prerequisites for an increase in the price, on the contrary, I see that the project is going in the wrong direction, while some enter into strategic agreements zcash conducts conferences, trainings, promotions, that does not give it popularity. And this is very bad in my opinion, I think that the work that is covered should be in the background, because it is not the basis for development. Now there is a lot of news about the ban of untracked coins, and the fact that zcash will not fall under the ban is sheer nonsense, take the exchanges in Japan, for example, did zec manage to return to them? And so it will be everywhere if the regulator requires it, and no posts on Twitter will change this, at the legislative level ECC cannot defend the project. Although this is one of the points of their work. Now again the statement that in the next two years the project will be a well-deserved success, I hear this every year and are moving in the opposite direction. Many people notice that the displacement z2z has increased, but how many of them are useful displacements, I think it is almost equal to 0, in other words, there is no productive development, there is a quantitative one that will not give an impetus to adoption.
Seeing this and what I described earlier, I do not see any real solutions for development, we add to this financing, which depends on the price, and that’s it, the project is waiting for a crisis. Where is the entry to the asia market that has been talked about for more than 2 years, even the news was that personnel would soon be recruited, if people work, what has changed, zec dives in and does not think to do something else.
Everyone is focused on the grant system, this is a work process, he should not try to be the leader. When a company is undergoing changes, almost no one is aware of it, the company always highlights its product, if it does not, then this company closes.What will happen if a well-known company, instead of highlighting the product, says that they have created a department that will work on some problem, he will have so much money, such people will work, this does not affect sales at all, so they do not do that. Look at the price, the more news of this kind comes out the more the price falls.
The grant system will not solve the issue of development and adoption, because only the owner of the trademark can do this, the grants will develop local directions and improve the existing functions. What is to offer from ECC and the fund for the survival of the project, at the moment I can not name anything (everything is built on improving wallets, speed of work - but since the project has not yet been limited by performance, this will not affect in any way now), where the partnership is used , where is the functionality for the general public to assess the improvement with the current market?
When the issue of use is resolved, I wait for the price at the level of $ 1000-1200
I only said wait until next summer where I hope it will be $200. The halving will mean nothing for awhile. It hasn’t meant nearly anything for Bitcoin thus far either but it will.
I agree with a lot of your points, but marketing is fairly pointless until the wallets are done. They waited a long time to even fund a developer for them. We are almost a year since Sapling and we still don’t have them ready. They could have marketed Zcash as a faster Bitcoin before but that is about it. Plenty of other projects could have said the same thing.
If we get Halo 2 and a few good MGRC funded projects and the price is still having troubles then Zcash will need something big to succeed like a major partnership, government approval etc.
Can you add more details to this.
Honestly, I don’t understand this.
What details are you waiting for, this is not in the zcash project, i.e. it is not used by real people in any way, i.e. it does not do what it exists for. All that the project is doing now is that it contains the developers, no one knows how long it will last, everything that is covered at work is long-term prospects and financial and organizational issues that, in principle, do not bother anyone except people who will then receive money for the work, in other words, it was 100 percent budget, then it was divided into 2 parts and now into 3 and that there was no more money, what’s the point, only responsibility was divided for failures.
When the community begins to demand real results from the developers then things will move, and now the community, which consists of several dozen people, simply believes that everything will be fine with the project, but the fans cannot understand why this will be so. Dividing the bounty, halo 2, and other changes will not be successful because they do not solve the main problem of “why buy and store zcash”. Yes, it will be possible to use it better, but for example, how many currencies do you use while in your country and why one :)?
What problems can zcash solve as it stands:
Accumulation - no
Exchange - no, there are better candidates.
Payment - definitely not, because there is no confidence in price stability.
Anonymity - no first 3 items.
What ECC and the fund are doing to solve these problems is nothing. How long they will be the price sufficient to cover their costs, I think not for long. Wallets, yes, they were needed and were needed a long time ago, and why weren’t there who can answer? After all, without wallets, there is generally no chance of accepting which the ECC spoke about, how can you talk about imminent adoption and not pay attention to the main problem? If you understand what and why, then everything does not seem so strange anymore.